CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2016 through May 2017 This year’s good rains improve the food security situation in Chad KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes for October 2016 A long growing season occurred this year, with the first rains falling a month earlier than usual, in April in the Sudanian zone and in May in Sahelian areas. There were above-average cumulative rainfall totals and a good distribution of rainfall in nearly all agropastoral areas. Cereal production is expected to be better than last year (by 16 percent) and above the five-year average (by 13 percent). The current availability of fresh crops from ongoing harvests, wild vegetables, and other wild plant foods and the availability of milk in certain localized areas have improved the food security situation in all parts of the country (except for the Lake Chad area due to the conflict). Households will have more diversified sources of food between October 2016 and January 2017 and there will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity in all parts of the country with the exception of the Lake Chad area. With the usual depletion of their food stocks between February Source: FEWS NET and May 2017, poor households in Kanem, the BEG area, This map shows relevant current acute food insecurity Abtouyour (Guera), and Kobé (Wadi Fira) will face a sharp outcomes for emergency decision-making. It does not reflect contraction in their main sources of income, namely migrant chronic food insecurity. remittances affected by the national economic crisis and livestock sales affected by the suspension of exports to Nigeria, as well as economic pressure from IDPs in Kanem and the BEG area. Accordingly, these households will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity as of April 2017. In spite of the reportedly good harvests in the Lake Chad area, poor households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through the month of January with the falling prices of livestock and the reduction in income from cash transfers and wage labor. The cereal stocks of poor households will be reduced to the bare minimum by February/March by the pressure from IDPs on their limited resources. They will face food consumption gaps and, without food assistance, will be propelled into a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation by February. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET CHAD FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government. CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2016 through May 2017 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Most likely estimated food security outcomes for October 2016 through January 2017 Current situation Farming conditions: The growing season began much earlier than usual, with the first rains falling in April in the Sudanian zone and in May in the Sahelian zone. Based on the status of crops at the end of the season, harvests are expected to be larger than average (by around 13 percent) and better than in 2015 (by 16 percent). Crop production in certain regions such as Western Logone, Mayo Kebbi, and Salamat is expected to exceed the five-year average by approximately 15 to 20 percent. This boost in production is largely attributable to rainfall conditions, with practically all parts of the country getting average to above-average levels of cumulative rainfall. The map of cumulative rainfall anomalies compared with the ten-year average (2006 to 2015), shows a moderate to large excess or about- average rainfall in all northern and southern farming areas and a slight deficit in the central reaches of East Mayo-Kebbi, in border areas between Tandjilé and Mandoul, and in far northern farming areas Source: FEWS NET (Figure 1). Most likely estimated food security outcomes for Most crops are in the final stages of their growing cycle. More February through May 2017 specifically, they are mainly in the grain and full ripening stage (pearl millet and off-season rice crops) and, in rare cases, the heading (sorghum) and vegetative recovery stage (berberé crops). Harvests in certain areas (Moyen Chari, West Mayo Kebbi, Wadi Fira, Sila, etc.) began ahead of schedule (in late September) due to the early planting of this season’s crops. In addition, certain households (in Koumogo subprefecture in Bahr Koh) still have carry-over cereal stocks capable of meeting their food needs for one month. In spite of the reported rainfall deficits at the beginning and end of the season affecting certain crops in the Sudanian zone, on the whole, harvests of cereal crops are still expected to be good in the wake of the good rainfall at the end of October. Thus, with the good food availability across the country and, in particular, in the Sudanian zone, the food stocks of most households will last longer than usual, until sometime between July and August 2017. Current off-season crops are making normal progress, particularly flood-recession sorghum crops commonly referred to as berbéré. The Source: FEWS NET average to good soil water reserves should be reinforced by the light rains through the end of October 2016. With the good progress of crop growth and development and higher crop yields, there are good prospects for off-season crop production. Hydrologic conditions: The good levels of rainfall have helped replenish rivers and streams and seasonal lakes and ponds, causing some to overflow their banks. These available surface water resources are replacing pastoral wells and boreholes as animal watering holes in most areas, particularly in the Sahelian belt where seasonal lakes and ponds are one of the main sources of water. Streamflow rates in all watersheds are above-normal, by 15 percent at the Sarh station, 21 percent in N’Djamena, 14 percent in Logone at the Bongor station, and five percent in Mayo Kebbi at the Léré station. These flow rates and the current levels of seasonal lakes and ponds will help ensure water availability for four to six months, until the middle of April 2017, which is slightly longer than usual. Household cereal stocks: Household cereal stocks will be gradually replenished from ongoing harvests beginning at the end of September and extending through November. Certain households with carry-over cereal stocks such as those in the Mayo Kebbi area have been reinforcing them with green crops and fresh crops from ongoing harvests. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2016 through May 2017 Farm labor: There is currently a high demand for farm labor for the intensive harvesting of peanut and maize crops, driven by the presence of crop predators. This year, in-kind wage payments are much more widespread than cash payments with the limited circulation of currency on the labor market due to the nationwide economic and financial situation. Daily wage rates have not changed since last year, except in the Lake Chad area, Figure 1: Cumulative rainfall (RFE) anomalies where they are down by nearly 50 percent. In general, income levels from for the period from April 1st through October wage labor are in line with the average, except in Kanem, the BEG area, 20th compared with the 2006-2015 average and the Lake Chad area. For example, residents of Kanem and the BEG area normally working as laborers in the maize harvest in the Lake Chad area are currently being paid in kind at the rate of 10 percent of their output. In other words, they are paid 10 kg of maize for each 100 kg of maize harvested or shelled. Thus, income levels from farm labor in Kanem and the BEG area are as much as 40 percent below-normal with the farm labor surplus created by displaced populations. In-kind wages in Wadi-Fira are around two “coros” of pearl millet (5 kg), the equivalent of 1200 CFAF/day (down by 20 percent from the same time last year due to the large supply of labor). In contrast, there is a larger demand for labor for the 2016/2017 season in Guera with the larger areas planted in crops compared with 2015/2016, where wage rates are unchanged or up from 2015 (1500 francs/day in 2016 versus 1000 francs/day in 2015). Locust situation: In general, the locust situation is stable in all parts of the country. However, there are localized reports of small numbers of grasshoppers and caterpillars sighted in certain areas, particularly in the Sahelian belt. The intensity of these infestations varies from moderate to severe depending on the area and crops in question, but are Source: USGS/FEWS NET concentrated mainly in the BEG, Kanem, Ouara, Wadi Fira, and Sila areas. Figure 2: Cumulative NDVI anomalies for Early harvests are being organized in anticipation of an exacerbation of the period from April 1st through October this situation in the eastern part of the country, specifically in Wadi Fira. 20th compared with the 2006-2015 average The Plant Protection Service (DPVC) is mounting a plant health surveillance program to monitor the situation in affected areas. The grasshoppers first appearing in September and, in some cases, causing severe infestations precipitating early harvests of pearl millet crops in Kanem, Barh- Gazal, and Hadjer Lamis, are all gone. There is no longer a grasshopper presence anywhere in the country, which bodes well for a good market gardening season. Status of pasture resources: Animals are in better than usual physical condition with the good rainfall conditions helping to create good levels of new grass cover and excellent water levels on seasonal lakes and ponds ensuring an available supply of water for livestock.