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CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS Perspectives on U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology Titus Galama • James Hosek Editors Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06- C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Perspectives on U.S. competitiveness in science and technology / Titus Galama, James Hosek, editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4179-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Technical education—United States. 2. Science—Study and teaching—United States. 3. Labor supply— United States—Effect of education on. 4. Competition, International. 5. Education and state—United States. I. Galama, Titus. II. Hosek, James R. T73.P47 2007 338.973'06—dc22 2007033581 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Concern has grown that the United States is losing its competitive edge in science and tech- nology (S&T). The factors driving this concern include globalization, the rise of science cen- ters in developing countries such as China and India, the increasing number of foreign-born Ph.D. students in the United States, and claims of a shortage of S&T workers in the United States. A loss of prowess in S&T could hurt U.S. economic competitiveness, standard of living, and national security. The Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness asked the RAND Corporation to convene a meeting in November 2006 to discuss these issues. The papers contained in this volume were prepared for the meeting. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Per- sonnel and Readiness and conducted within the Forces and Resources Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Com- batant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on RAND’s Forces and Resources Policy Center, contact the Director, James Hosek. He can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at 310-393-0411, extension 7183; or by mail at the RAND Corporation, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, California 90407-2138. More information about RAND is available at www.rand. org. iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgments .............................................................................................vii Introduction by Titus Galama and James Hosek ........................................................... 1 Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future—Executive Summary by The National Academies............................. 9 The Global Diffusion of S&T and the Rise of China by Adam Segal.................................29 Scientific Wealth and the Scientific Investments of Nations by Jonathan Adams ..................37 The World Is What? by David Warsh .......................................................................49 National Security in a Knowledge-Based Global Economy by Jonathan Eaton and Samuel Kortum ............................................................................................53 Recent Trends in U.S. Science and Engineering: Prospects, Challenges, and Implications by James D. Adams ........................................................................................73 Globalization of the Scientific/Engineering Workforce and National Security by Richard B. Freeman .......................................................................................81 The Gathering Storm and Its Implications for National Security by Michael S. Teitelbaum ....91 Comments on the “Gathering Storm” and Its Implications for National Security by Paula E. Stephan ......................................................................................... 101 Comments at a Meeting on the “Gathering Storm” and Its Implications for National Security by Thomas L. Magnanti ..................................................................... 107 Some Thoughts on the “Gathering Storm,” National Security, and the Global Market for Scientific Talent by Paul Oyer......................................................................... 113 Summative Evaluation of Personnel Management and Compensation Initiatives by Brigitte W. Schay......................................................................................... 121 v vi Perspectives on U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology The Economic Complexities of Incentive Reforms and Engineers in the Federal Government by Beth J. Asch........................................................................... 129 APPENDIX Agenda, List of Attendees, and Biographical Information .......................................... 143 Acknowledgments We are pleased to acknowledge the leadership and support provided by David S. C. Chu, Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness. Throughout the process of planning for the meeting and communicating the findings, we benefited from the counsel and guidance of Jeanne Fites, Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Program Integration (Personnel and Readiness). We are grateful to each of the authors whose work is presented here for their careful attention to both content and deadline. Sloan Fader of RAND deserves much credit for work- ing with the authors to obtain their initial and final drafts and for assembling this document. We thank Lindsay Daugherty and Meg Blume-Kohout for researching the topic, helping to identify experts, and organizing the meeting. vii Introduction Titus Galama1 and James Hosek1 By one estimate, from the 16th century to the present, scientific centers in the West have shifted, with an average period of scientific prosperity of about 80 years (Yuasa, 1962). Italy led in science from about 1540 to 1610, England from 1660 to 1730, France from 1770 to 1830, Germany from 1810 to 1920, and the United States from 1920 to the present—already a period of more than 80 years. Yet some argue that the United States is now in danger of losing its competitive edge in science and technology (S&T), and, if so, the consequences could be negative and profound. Discoveries in science and technology have been fundamental drivers of U.S. economic progress and improvement in the standard