ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTION Predicting Greater Grison Galictis vittata presence from scarce records in the department of Cordoba, Colombia José F. GONZÁLEZ-MAYA1*, Julio J. CHACÓN PACHECO2, Javier RACERO-CASARRUBIA2, Erika HUMANEZ-LÓPEZ2 & Andrés ARIAS-ALZATE3 1. Proyecto de Conservación de Aguas y Tierras, ProCAT Colombia/Internacional, Calle 97ª # 10-62, Of. 202, Bogotá, Abstract. Colombia. The Greater Grison, Galictis vittata, is a poorly known species in Colombia. Throughout 2. Grupo de Investigación its range major knowledge gaps exist regarding its ecology and conservation. To compile Biodiversidad Unicórdoba, and analyse information about the species´ distribution records in the department of Universidad de Córdoba, Cordoba, Colombia and assess its presence probability according to landscape attributes, Montería, Córdoba, Colombia. we conducted a literature review of all wildlife studies in the region and compiled all possible direct presence records of the species in the department. We generated random 3.Grupo de Mastozoología, location points and characterized each distribution and random location by their distance to landscape attributes and land-cover type and modelled landscape presence using a Instituto de Biología, Multiple Logistic Regression approach. We found 33 records of the species in Cordoba Universidad de Antioquía. with most of the records distributed in the subregion of Alto Sinú (36%). Higher presence Medellín, Colombia. probabilities are localized in areas near forests mostly in the southern parts of the department, showing the species is still related with the largest forest blocks. Grisons Correspondence: appears to potentially tolerate some levels of disturbance but is still dependent to forest. The influence of natural habitats and abundance across the department and other areas José F. González-Maya of its distribution remain to be evaluated. [email protected] Keywords: Carnivora, Multiple Logistic Regression, Mustelidae, Resource Selection Model Associate editor: Jan Schipper http://www.smallcarnivoreconservation.org ISSN 1019-5041 Introduction Small carnivores, generally mustelids, procyonids and mephitids, are among the least studied groups in the Neotropical region, where demographic and life-history information from some countries, such as Colombia, are limited and anecdotal (González-Maya et al. 2011). Despite the important role of these species in the ecosystems (Belant et al. 2009, González-Maya et al. 2009), few researches have been carried out on many basic aspects of their ecology, biology and natural history, and they have been relatively overlooked by science and conservation efforts (Schipper et al. 2009). Likewise, among small carnivores, some species (e.g., Mustela felipei, Procyon spp.) have aroused the interest among biologists, most probably related with distribution range, conservation status, ecosystems function or charismatic appealing (González-Maya et al. 2009, Schipper et al. 2009). The Greater Grison, Galictis vittata (Schreber 1776), is one of the least known mustelid species in America (Bornholdt et al. 2013), with significant information gaps regarding demographic and life-history traits throughout its range (de Oliveira 2009, González-Maya et al. 2011). It is an inconspicuous, widely distributed species from Southern Small Carnivore Conservation (2019) 57: 34–44 34 González-Maya et al. Mexico to Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil (Yensen & Tarifa 2003, Cuarón et al. 2016) including some localities from Paraguay (Bornholdt et al. 2013). It inhabits tropical lowlands in an elevational range from 0 to 2200 m asl (Escobar-Lasso & Guzmán-Hernández 2014, Cuarón et al. 2016). It occupies mainly undisturbed forests and occasionally secondary forests, especially associated to water bodies (Yensen & Tarifa 2003), but there are some reports in disturbed habitats such as coffee and banana plantations, intervened forests and pasturelands (Gallina et al. 1996, Gaudrain & Harvey 2003, de la Torre et al. 2009). Main threats to Greater Grison are related to deforestation and illegal hunting, mostly as a pest control alternative to poultry predation (Cuarón et al. 2016) and for pet-trade (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora - CITES 2013). The Greater Grison is considered globally as Least Concern by IUCN (Cuarón et al. 2016), but few information exists regarding the real conservation status both at local and regional scales, likely product of the generalized low attention to study the species (González-Maya et al. 2011). Currently, most of the available information on the Greater Grison is limited to some incidental reports, without systematic approaches, considering the species probably tolerant to anthropic intervention but occurring at low densities on most of the habitats (Cuarón et al. 2016). For Colombia, Alberico et al. (2000) described the general distribution of the Greater Grison based on accidental data from few localities, suggesting that this species occur across all over the country. However, recent confirmed reports from Cesar, Sucre (Wieczorek 2001), Antioquia (Cuartas Calle & Muñoz Arango 2003), Caldas (Escobar-Lasso & Guzmán- Hernández 2014), Nariño (Ramírez-Chaves & Noguera-Urbano 2010), Vichada, Meta, Arauca, Caquetá (Ferrer Pérez et al. 2009) and Cordoba departments have allowed to draw more precise distribution inferences for the country (Meza-Joya et al. 2018). However, ecological information, such as demography, life history, tolerance to disturbed areas or intervention is limited; therefore, assessing its conservation status remains a difficult task. In light of enormous gaps on the ecology, distribution and threats knowledge of the Greater Grison, and the need for quality data that supports conservation status assessment in Colombia, here we provide new data for the Caribbean region of Colombia. Specifically, we perform a spatial modelling approach to explore the tolerance of the Greater Grison to disturbed areas using a presence probability scheme. Materials and methods Study area Cordoba department is located within the Caribbean region of Colombia (09°25’, 07°15’N and 75°26’, 75°10’W; Figure 1; González-Maya et al. 2013). The department extends through 25,000 km2, including approximately 1,220 km of rivers, 100 km2 of wetlands, and 165 km of shorelines. The topography is dominated by plains with isolated 35 Small Carnivore Conservation (2019) 57: 34–44 Greater Grison in Córdoba, Colombia mountains, with an elevation gradient from 0 to 1250 m asl. Mean annual precipitation ranges from 1,400 to 2,300 mm, mean annual temperature of 28º C and humidity over 80%. The typical vegetation is mangroves, estuarine areas, savannas, tropical dry and rain forests (Marín Ramírez 1992). Geographic regions division includes six subregions: High, Mid and Lower Sinú River, Costanera (coast), Sabanas (savannas) and San Jorge River. Historically, the department have suffered of unsustainable land and resource use, where current predominant land-use is degraded pasturelands and agriculture/cattle production areas, with isolated forest patches and the largest remaining forests mostly restricted to the southern portion of the department (González-Maya et al. 2013). Range distribution database We compiled information from technical reports and fauna inventories from multiple sources such as thesis, scientific papers, research reports, and semi-popular articles, in order to collect all recent available (2000-present) presences records for the Greater Grison in the department of Córdoba. Technical reports from the Universidad de Córdoba, and the regional environmental authority – Corporación Autónoma Regional de los Valles del Sinú y del San Jorge (CVS and UNAL 2005, Ballesteros et al. 2009, Centenaro & Ballesteros 2002, Centenaro & Ballesteros 2004, Centro de Investigaciones Ambientales y de Ingeniería 2001, Consultores-Unidos & Gercon 1997, Consultoría Colombiana 2000, Consultoría del Caribe 1998, Cuervo-Maya et al. 2000, De la Ossa 1993, Franco-C 2000, Jiménez 2000, Luna 2000, Montoya-Bohorquez 1993, Noriega-M & Mejia-A 1993, Nuñez-D 2005, Racero-Casarrubia & Hernández 2010, Universidad de Córdoba & Fundación Neotrópicos 1996). We also consulted Museum specimens from national and international collections and public electronic databases including the Instituto de Ciencias Naturales (ICN)- National University of Colombia (Instituto de Ciencias Naturales 2011), and validation assessments (Suárez- Castro & Ramírez-Chaves 2015), VertNet (http://www.vertnet.org) and the Biodiversity Information System in Colombia (Instituto Alexander von Humboldt 2011). In addition, we included first-hand records collected by the Grupo de Biodiversidad of the Universidad de Cordoba between 2006 and 2011 (Ballesteros et al. 2006, Ballesteros com. pers.), and monitoring activities of the Parque Nacional Natural Paramillo (PNN Paramillo) by the park staff. Spatial modelling approach We georeferenced and characterized each Greater Grison record according to distance to different landscape attributes and types of land cover where the record was obtained. The attributes used included distance to roads, human settlements and rivers, elevation and land- use types (i.e., primary and secondary forest, crops, managed pastures and succession; CVS 2006). To assess if the distribution of the records was random or responded to landscape or human variables, and to estimate presences probabilities we used a logistic regression modelling approach (Pearce & Ferrier