WIRELESS EMERGENCY ALERTS MOBILE PENETRATION STRATEGY August 2013 Task Lead Daniel Gonzales Task Staff Edward Balkovich Brian Jackson Jan Osburg Andrew Parker Evan Saltzman Ricardo Sanchez Shoshana Shelton Chuck Stelzner Dulani Woods Henry H. Willis Director, Homeland Security and Defense Center National Defense Research Institute Jack Riley Vice President and Director, National Security Research Division Director, National Defense Research Institute Acknowledgments The National Defense Research Institute, a division of the RAND Corporation, performed this analysis for the Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate. The NDRI team extends its deep appreciation to members of the emergency response and wireless communications communities for their cooperation, information, and feedback; their contributions are the foundation of this report. Further, the NDRI team offers its gratitude to the emergency responders whose dedication and commitment ensure the safety of our families, our communities, and our nation. This report is a tribute to their service. In addition, we would like to extend our appreciation for constructive peer reviews provided by Marvin Sirbu of Carnegie Mellon University and by David Senty. NDRI Publication Number: PR-594-OSD iii Preface The objective of this analysis, performed for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Science and Technology Directorate, was to independently assess the coverage and penetration of the Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) system, and to offer recommendations to improve the availability, coverage, and penetration of WEA to the U.S. public. The intended audience of this report is U.S. government decision makers; commercial mobile service providers; mobile wireless device manufacturers; and federal, state, local, and tribal alert originators. Each of these parties has a role in implementing WEA, and is positioned to take unique actions to improve the penetration of WEA. v Contents Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. iii Preface..................................................................................................................................v Contents ............................................................................................................................ vii Figures................................................................................................................................ xi Tables ............................................................................................................................... xiii Executive Summary ...........................................................................................................xv How WEA Works ................................................................................................ xvi Methodology ....................................................................................................... xvii Findings —WEA Coverage ............................................................................... xviii Most State Emergency Managers Plan to Use WEA .................................... xviii All Tier I and Most Tier II Commercial Mobile Service Providers Will Implement WEA ....................................................................................... xviii CMSPs Can Provide WEA to Almost All of the U.S. Public ......................... xix Findings—Barriers to WEA Use .......................................................................xx Recommendations to Improve WEA Adoption .............................................. xxi 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................1 Government Roles and Responsibilities ..................................................................1 Federal Partners ...................................................................................................2 Federal Alert Originators.....................................................................................3 The National Weather Service ............................................................................3 State and Local Emergency Managers ................................................................4 IPAWS-OPEN System.............................................................................................4 Wireless Emergency Alert System ..........................................................................6 CMSP Requirements ................................................................................................9 WEA Messages ......................................................................................................10 2. WEA Mobile Penetration Strategy ................................................................................11 Goals ......................................................................................................................13 Characterize Expected Levels of WEA Penetration ..........................................13 Identify Barriers to Adoption, Including Demographic Factors .......................14 Recommend Options for Improving WEA Penetration ....................................14 Challenges ..............................................................................................................15 3. Methodology ..................................................................................................................21 Definitions of Terms Used .....................................................................................21 Units of Geography ...........................................................................................22 Census Tracts ....................................................................................................22 Cell Coverage ....................................................................................................24 Geopolitical Units..............................................................................................24 vii Designated Market Areas ..................................................................................24 Data Sources ..........................................................................................................25 Alert Originator Data.........................................................................................25 Cellular Mobile Service Provider Data ..................................................................27 American Roamer..............................................................................................27 Mobile Device Data ...............................................................................................28 comScore ...........................................................................................................28 Other Mobile Device and Demographic Data Sources .....................................28 4. Estimated Alert Originator Coverage and Barriers to Expanding Coverage .................31 Types of WEA Alerts.............................................................................................31 Alert Originator Adoption......................................................................................32 At the Federal Level ..........................................................................................33 At the State or Territorial Level ........................................................................34 At the County Level ..........................................................................................40 At Other Governmental Levels .........................................................................43 Summary of Alert Originator Coverage ............................................................44 Issues and Adoption Barriers Raised by AOs ...................................................45 5. Estimated CMSP Coverage............................................................................................51 Overview of Commercial Mobile Service Providers in the United States ............51 WEA Adoption Trends By CMSPs .......................................................................55 Estimated National Mobile Phone Voice Coverage ..............................................57 Estimated National WEA Coverage ......................................................................58 Adoption Issues and Barriers .................................................................................67 6. WEA Compatibility of Mobile Devices ........................................................................71 Current Adoption Trends .......................................................................................71 WEA Penetration and Software Upgrades .............................................................76 Mobile Device Turnover Rates ..............................................................................78 7. Estimated Population Adoption .....................................................................................89 U.S. Population with WEA Coverage....................................................................89 Factors Affecting Possession of a WEA-Capable Mobile Device .........................89 Factors Affecting Awareness or Understanding of a WEA Message ....................97 How Disadvantaged Populations Cluster Across States ......................................107 8. User Acceptance and Public