An ex post facto Evaluation of a Metro Vancouver Transportation Plan by Devon Robert Farmer B. Eng., University of Victoria, 2010 Project Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Urban Studies in the Urban Studies Program Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences © Devon Robert Farmer 2018 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Spring 2018 Copyright in this work rests with the author. Please ensure that any reproduction or re-use is done in accordance with the relevant national copyright legislation. Approval Name: Devon Robert Farmer Degree: Master of Urban Studies Title: An ex post facto evaluation of a Metro Vancouver Transportation Plan Examining Committee: Chair: Peter V. Hall Professor, Urban Studies Program Anthony Perl Senior Supervisor Professor, Urban Studies Program and Department of Political Science Karen Ferguson Supervisor Professor, Urban Studies Program and Department of History Clark Lim External Examiner Principal, Acuere Consulting Adjunct Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia March 27, 2018 Date Defended/Approved: ii Ethics Statement iii Abstract Plans ought to be evaluated upon completion to determine their impacts and the reasons for success or failure. With this information, future planning efforts can be improved. Accordingly, this thesis offers an ex post facto evaluation of Metro Vancouver’s Transport 2021 medium-range transportation plan to determine its effectiveness and recommend how to improve future plans. In 1993, this plan recommended regional transportation policies and projects for the horizon year of 2006. Using a mixed-methods approach adapted from Laurian et al., the plan’s logic, implementation, and outcomes were examined, and factors affecting the results were considered. Although the plan proved technically capable of meeting its goals, it was not an effective plan, as it was only partially implemented, and its goals were not fully achieved. I identified factors that limited the implementation and outcomes, including politics and a failure to achieve the goals of the related land-use plan. Keywords: Metro Vancouver; plan evaluation; transportation; planning; implementation; outcomes of plans. iv Dedication This research, and indeed my journey through the Urban Studies Program, would never have been possible without the support and patience of my wonderful spouse Kelly. Her support of my crazy idea to go to grad school and change careers is much appreciated. Thank you, Kelly. v Acknowledgements The support I received while writing this thesis was incredible and I owe a huge debt of gratitude to many individuals. First and foremost, to my senior supervisor Dr. Anthony Perl for his tireless support and brilliant advice. Thank you for taking me on as your supervisee and for helping me at every stage of the way. Others in the Urban Studies Program and at SFU have also been tremendously helpful and supportive including Terri Evans, my supervisor Dr. Karen Ferguson, Dr. Peter Hall, and Benjamin Anderson from the Read-Ahead service. Thank you as well to my all my fellow Urban Studies students, especially Alex Thumm, Katelyn McDougall, Peter Marriott, and Michael Ohnemus, for helping and inspiring me to complete this work. My family, Kelly, Carson, Amanda, Ophelia, Mackenzie, Marc, Tia, and Bob have always supported me, but have especially encouraged me over the last few years as I went through the program. The Transit Museum Society of Greater Vancouver (TRAMS), through member Rob Chew, was very keen and helpful when providing me with old schedule and maps of the transit system – their society is a valuable historical asset. Individuals at TransLink, especially Susanne Bell, Andrew McCurran, Geoff Cross, and Caitlin Cooper who worked hard and diligently to provide me with the data that I needed, and provided thoughtful suggestions. I would also like to acknowledge the contributions of Clive Rock, Ken Cameron, Gordon Price, and Martin Crilly, who all made themselves available for multiple interviews for this research. Without any hesitation, these four individuals provided invaluable information about the regional transport system and their contributions to the region continues to go above and beyond the call of duty. Finally, I’d like to express my gratitude to Clark Lim, the external examiner, for his time and effort for my defense. vi Table of Contents Approval .......................................................................................................................... ii Ethics Statement ............................................................................................................ iii Abstract .......................................................................................................................... iv Dedication ....................................................................................................................... v Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................ vi Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ................................................................................................................... x List of Figures................................................................................................................. xi List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................ xii Disclosure .....................................................................................................................xiii Chapter 1. Introduction .............................................................................................. 1 1.1 The Transport 2021 Plans .................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Questions ............................................................................................. 3 1.3 Significance of Research ...................................................................................... 4 Chapter 2. Context and Background ......................................................................... 6 2.1 Metro Vancouver – Region and Regional Body .................................................... 6 2.2 Transportation Network ........................................................................................ 7 2.3 Transportation Planning, Governance, and Politics ............................................ 10 2.4 TransLink and its History .................................................................................... 14 2.4.1 Establishment .............................................................................................. 14 2.4.2 Governance ................................................................................................. 15 2.4.3 Funding ....................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 3. Literature Review ................................................................................... 20 3.1 Evaluation in Planning ........................................................................................ 20 3.1.1 Evaluation Typologies: Talen ....................................................................... 20 3.1.2 Evaluation Typologies: Laurian et al. ........................................................... 23 3.2 Evaluating the T2021 MRP ................................................................................. 25 3.3 Determining Effectiveness .................................................................................. 27 3.4 Insights into Causality ......................................................................................... 29 3.5 A Definition of Effectiveness for the T2021 MRP ................................................ 30 Chapter 4. Methodology ........................................................................................... 31 4.1 Logic Model and Due Diligence .......................................................................... 32 4.2 Implementation ................................................................................................... 32 4.3 Outcomes ........................................................................................................... 35 4.4 Factors ............................................................................................................... 38 4.5 TransLink’s Influence .......................................................................................... 40 4.6 Alternative Evaluation of Transport 2021 ............................................................ 41 vii Chapter 5. Logic Model and Due Diligence ............................................................ 43 5.1 Performance Targets Modelling Process ............................................................ 43 5.2 Goals and Logic Model ....................................................................................... 43 5.3 Lever 1: Land-Use .............................................................................................. 46 5.4 Lever 2: Transportation Demand Management (TDM) ........................................ 48 5.4.1 TDM Incentives ............................................................................................ 49 5.4.2 Road Pricing ...............................................................................................