2016 NHL DRAFT GUIDE THE NHL’S GROWING NCAA INFLUENCE The impact of former NCAA players, executives and coaches continues to grow; the 2016 NHL Draft is just the latest step in a developing trend. Consider: • The Pittsburgh Penguins had the most NCAA players of any Stanley Cup champion in history and the second most of any NHL team in history, trailing only last year’s Presidents’ Trophy-winning New York Rangers. Infographic • Nine of the Penguins’ 15 goals in the Stanley Cup Final were scored by NCAA alumni. • Three current NCAA players were taken in the top 10 of the 2015 NHL Draft for the first time ever. • Impact rookies Shayne Gostisbehere, Jack Eichel, Dylan Larkin and Colton Parayko all came from the NCAA ranks. • In 2003, 21% of the league had played college hockey. Today that number is 30%. • In the first 98 years of the NHL, 11 head coaches had experience coaching at the college level. In the last year, three head coaches with NCAA experience have been hired (Dave Hakstol, John Hynes, Jeff Blashill). collegehockeyinc.com | @collegehockey 2016 NHL DRAFT | NCAA GUIDE TOP STORYLINES Record weekend? – Mock drafts have projected between 8 and 11 current and future NCAA players being taken in the first round, which would mark the most since 2007 and potentially tied for the most all-time. Most NCAA Picks, First Round 11 – 2007 9 – 2003 8 – 2010, 2005 7 – 2015, 2006, 2004, 2000 Terriers rising – Boston University defenseman Charlie McAvoy and future teammates Kieffer Bellows, Dante Fabbro and Clayton Keller are all projected to be selected in the first round. That would mark the first time since the 2006 NHL Draft that one NCAA team had four players or recruits taken in the first round (Minnesota: Erik Johnson, Phil Kessel, Kyle Okposo, David Fischer). Most First Round Picks in One Draft, One NCAA Team 4 – Minnesota, 2006 (Erik Johnson, Phil Kessel, Kyle Okposo, David Fischer) 3 – North Dakota, 2005 (Brian Lee, T.J. Oshie, Joe Finley) 3 – Wisconsin, 2007 (Kyle Turris, Ryan McDonagh, Brendan Smith) Western choices – Three Western Canadians playing in the BCHL last season have a chance to be first-round picks as each prepares for their freshman NCAA season. Penticton teammates Dante Fabbro (Boston University) and Tyson Jost (North Dakota) plus Chilliwack’s Dennis Cholowski (St. Cloud State) are all potential first-round picks. The last Canadians headed to college hockey to be selected in the first round were Michael Matheson and Mark Jankowski in 2012. The BCHL has never had three players taken in the first round of one draft; only once before have three Canadian NCAA players been taken in the first round (2007: Kyle Turris, Riley Nash, Brendan Smith). Current collegians – Three rising sophomores – Charlie McAvoy (Boston University), Luke Kunin (Wisconsin) and Tage Thompson (Connecticut) – could hear their names called in the first round. If they do it would mark two years in a row that three players were taken in the first round following their freshman year. In the eight drafts prior to last year (2007- 14) a total of five players were taken in the first round after they had played a season of college hockey. TOP 10 AND FIRST ROUND HISTORY Current | Future NCAA Players Selected All-Time First Round Picks: http://collegehockeyinc.com/pages/first-round-nhl-draft-picks Year Top 10 First Rd. Year Top 10 First Rd. Year Top 10 First Rd. 2015 3 | 0 3 | 4 2002 2 | 0 5 | 1 1988 0 | 1 1 | 1 2014 0 | 0 0 | 3 2001 1 | 0 4 | 0 1987 0 | 0 1 | 0 2013 0 | 0 0 | 0 2000 2 | 0 6 | 1 1986 1 | 1 3 | 2 2012 0 | 1 0 | 5 1999 0 | 0 3 | 0 1985 1 | 0 1 | 2 2011 0 | 0 1 | 1 1998 0 | 0 1 | 0 1984 1 | 0 1 | 1 2010 0 | 0 1 | 7 1997 0 | 0 0 | 0 1983 1 | 0 1 | 0 2009 0 | 0 1 | 5 1996 1 | 0 2 | 1 1982 0 | 0 1 | 0 2008 1 | 0 1 | 3 1995 0 | 0 0 | 0 1981 0 | 0 0 | 0 2007 0 | 2 1 | 10 1994 0 | 0 1 | 1 1980 0 | 0 1 | 0 2006 2 | 2 3 | 4 1993 1 | 0 2 | 1 1979 0 | 0 1 | 0 2005 0 | 3 1 | 7 1992 0 | 0 0 | 3 1978 0 | 0 0 | 0 2004 1 | 1 3 | 4 1991 2 | 0 2 | 1 1977 0 | 0 0 | 0 2003 1 | 1 7 | 2 1990 0 | 0 2 | 1 1976 1 | 0 1 | 0 1989 0 | 0 1 | 2 None prior to 1976 (Dave Shand) 2016 NHL DRAFT | NCAA GUIDE ARE NCAA PLAYERS UNDERVALUED IN THE NHL DRAFT? An average of more than 60 current/future NCAA players have been selected in the last 14 NHL Drafts. Nevertheless, evidence from recent years suggests that NCAA players are undervalued in the draft. Drafts in Hindsight A popular pastime among hockey news organizations is to look back at drafts five, 10 or 15 years ago and “re-draft” them – see where the selections should have fallen, given how the players’ careers have played out. Invariably – no matter the year or the news organization – NCAA players were under- represented in the original draft. Source Original Draft Re-Evaluated 1994 Draft, NHL.com 2 NCAA players in 1st Rd. 5 NCAA players in 1st Rd. 2000 Draft, NHL.com 7 NCAA players in 1st Rd. 8 NCAA players in top 23 picks 2003 Draft, NHL.com 9 NCAA players in 1st Rd. 10 NCAA players in 1st Rd. 2003 Draft, Sportsnet 2 NCAA players in top 11 picks; 9 4 NCAA players in top 9 picks; 11 NCAA players in 1st Rd. NCAA players in 1st Rd. 2004 Draft, NHL.com 5 NCAA players in top 23 picks 6 NCAA players in top 23 picks 2005 Draft, NHL.com 8 NCAA players in 1st Rd. 10 NCAA players in top 27 picks 2008 Draft, ESPN.com 4 NCAA players in 1st Rd. 6 NCAA players in 1st Rd. 2008 Draft, NHL.com 4 NCAA players in 1st Rd. 6 NCAA players in 1st Rd. 2009 Draft, ESPN.com 0 NCAA players in top 15 picks 4 NCAA players in top 15 picks 2010 Draft, NHL.com 8 NCAA players in top 30 picks 9 NCAA players in top 29 picks 2010 Draft, ESPN.com 8 NCAA players in top 30 picks 9 NCAA players in top 23 picks First-Round Draft Study A study of the 270 first-round draft picks from 2000-08 shows that 77% of those players who developed in the NCAA went on to have a significant NHL career (200+ GP; 100+ for goalies). By contrast, 64% of all other players in that time met the same standard. First-Round NHL Draft Picks, 2000-08 100% 77% 80% 68% 60% 55% 40% 20% 0% NCAA CHL Europe Pct. of Players with 200+ GP 2015 NHL DRAFT | NCAA GUIDE WHAT ARE SOME REASONS NCAA PLAYERS ARE VALUED IN THE DRAFT? Chicago selected seven current or future NCAA players among its nine draft picks in 2014 and had an NHL-high 14 prospects playing NCAA hockey in 2015-16. “You generally have a little more time with those players,” said general manager Stan Bowman, a Notre Dame graduate. “You have four or five years. It’s tougher when you have a two-year window to sign a guy. Sometimes they don’t define themselves by that second year and you have to make a decision, do you sign them or not. We like that element that because you have the player for four years – you don’t have to leave them there for four years, but you have a little bit more control over it.” Full interview, including comments from Director of Amateur Scouting Mark Kelley: http://collegehockeyinc.com/articles/blackhawks-draft-7-ncaa-players New Jersey’s new general manager, Ray Shero, has a son playing at Boston College this fall. While in Pittsburgh he drafted players like Bryan Rust (Notre Dame) and acquired others like Brian Dumoulin (Boston College). More than half of the Penguins’ lineup in the Stanley Cup Playoffs has been made up of NCAA players “I really like the idea with college players that you can draft them and they can go for four years,” Shero said. “You know you are going to get a mature player, a stronger player.” In most cases, it isn’t a team’s mission to draft NCAA players – though it often works out that way. “There wasn’t a plan to find college kids,” said Minnesota general manager and Harvard alum Chuck Fletcher, “but it goes to show you how strong American college hockey is now. There are so many more former college players that are playing in the NHL. It’s a great avenue to become a player.” CURRENT COLLEGE PLAYERS NHL Draft Picks, 2005-13 – Rounds 2-7 A small subset of the NCAA players taken in the draft 60% 54% – likely between six and 10 – are likely to be players 50% who spent their draft year playing college hockey. 40% 34% 33% Recent history suggests that those selections may be 30% 21% the best values in the draft. | FULL STUDY 20% 10% College Hockey Inc. conducted a study of the first nine drafts since 2005, when the draft was reduced 0% to seven rounds. In that period 86 players have been Chances of Playing 1 GP Chances of Playing 41+ GP taken after spending their draft season in the NCAA.