MANAGING CHINA’S RISE IN OUTER SPACE FRANK A. ROSE APRIL 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Space Dialogue; developing bilateral and multilateral norms of behavior for outer space; identifying ways to Access to outer space is critical to modern everyday cooperate with China on pragmatic civil space projects; life on Earth. The utilization of outer space helps us and reviewing current congressional limitations on civil warn of natural disasters, facilitate navigation and space cooperation with China. transportation globally, expand our scientific frontiers, monitor compliance with arms control treaties and 1 agreements, provide global access to financial INTRODUCTION operations, and scores of other activities worldwide. Access to outer space is critical to modern everyday life on Earth. The utilization of outer space helps us However, today’s outer space environment is evolving warn of natural disasters, facilitate navigation and rapidly, presenting the United States and the entire transportation globally, expand our scientific frontiers, international community with several key challenges monitor compliance with arms control treaties and to the sustainability, safety, stability, and security of agreements, provide global access to financial the outer space environment. Some of these key operations, and scores of other activities worldwide. challenges include the growth of orbital debris, which However, today’s outer space environment is evolving represents an ever-increasing threat to both human rapidly, presenting the United States and the entire and robotic space flight, the emergence of mega international community with several key challenges constellations of small satellites, and the development to the sustainability, safety, stability, and security of and deployment of anti-satellite (or ASAT) capabilities. the outer space environment. Some of these key challenges include the growth of orbital debris, which China’s increasing activities in outer space lie at represents an ever-increasing threat to both human the heart of these challenges. Over the past several and robotic space flight, the emergence of mega decades, China has rapidly expanded its presence in constellations of small satellites, and the development outer space in both the civil and military arenas. Given and deployment of anti-satellite (or ASAT) capabilities. the increasing role that China is playing in the space domain in the future, the United States will need to China’s increasing activities in outer space lie at develop a strategy that deters China’s increasing ASAT the heart of these challenges. Over the past several capabilities, while at the same time finds ways to work decades, China has rapidly expanded its presence in with China cooperatively on sustainability and safety outer space in both the civil and military arenas. As a issues like orbital debris, space traffic management, January 2019 report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence and the rise of mega satellite constellations. Elements Agency noted, “China has devoted significant of such a strategy should include: enhancing deterrence economic and political resources to growing all and increasing resiliency against Chinese ASAT threats; aspects of its space program, from improving military reinvigorating the U.S.-China bilateral dialogue on space applications to developing human spaceflight space security issues; continuing the U.S.-China Civil and lunar exploration programs.”2 TECHNOLOGY 1 GLOBAL CHINA MANAGING CHINA’S RISE IN OUTER SPACE Given the increasing role that China is playing in of orbital debris smaller than 10 centimeters exist that the space domain, the United States will need to we currently don’t have the capability to track but could develop a strategy that deters China’s increasing ASAT still cause significant damage if a collision occurred. capabilities, while at the same time finds ways to work Experts warn that the current quantity and density with China cooperatively on sustainability and safety of man-made debris significantly increases the odds issues like orbital debris, space traffic management, of future collisions either as debris damages space and the rise of mega satellite constellations. This systems or as colliding debris creates more debris. paper seeks to provide an outline of the key elements of such a strategy. Specifically, the paper will discuss Because of the high speeds in which these objects the key challenges facing the outer space environment; travel in space — 17,500 miles per hour — even a sub- provide an overview of Chinese civil and military space millimeter piece of debris could cause a problem for programs; outline recent bilateral interactions between human or robotic missions. This serious problem is the United States and China in space; and provide continually growing as more debris is generated by pragmatic recommendations on how the United States routine operations as well as by accidents and mishaps can effectively manage China’s rise in outer space. such as the 2009 collision between a Russian Cosmos satellite and a commercially-operated Iridium satellite. Other debris is a result of deliberate acts, like China’s CHALLENGES TO THE OUTER 2007 destructive test against one of its own satellites. SPACE ENVIRONMENT That single test created over 3,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 centimeters that will stay in low Earth The growth of orbital debris orbit for potentially hundreds of years, presenting an ongoing threat to the space systems of all nations, Decades of space activity have littered Earth’s orbit including China itself. Over the past several years with defunct satellites and pieces of orbital debris. there have been hundreds of occasions when debris As activities in outer space continue to grow, the from China’s 2007 anti-satellite test has come close chances of a collision increase. The United States to their own satellites. Indeed, these two events alone is currently tracking approximately 26,000 pieces are responsible for approximately one-third of all the of orbital debris 10 centimeters or larger in various debris in low Earth orbit. The chart below illustrates Earth orbits. Approximately 2,218 of these objects are the dramatic growth in the amount of orbital debris active satellites.3 Other objects in orbit include: spent since the dawn of the Space Age in 1957. rocket bodies, inactive satellites, a wrench, and even a toothbrush! Additionally, as many as 600,000 pieces TECHNOLOGY 2 GLOBAL CHINA MANAGING CHINA’S RISE IN OUTER SPACE FIGURE 1: GROWTH OF ORBITAL DEBRIS 1957-2015 18000 Collision of Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 16000 Total Objects 14000 Fragmentation Debris Destruction of Fengyun-1C 12000 Spacecraft s t Mission-related Debris c e j 10000 Rocket Bodies Ob f o 8000 r 6000 Only ~1400 are Numbe operational 4000 2000 0 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration4 The United States is working to address the orbital Over the last several decades, the United States debris challenge in several ways. First and foremost, has also worked within several international forums it is improving space situation awareness capabilities like the Interagency Debris Coordination Committee (or SSA), which allow us to track, characterize, and (IADC), which consists of representatives from the catalogue objects in outer space. This mission is world’s major space agencies, and the United Nations currently performed by the U.S. Department of Defense Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (DOD) through the U.S. Air Force’s 18th Space Control (UNCOPUOS), to develop international guidelines to Squadron, based at Vandenberg Air Force Base in improve the safety and sustainability of the outer space California.5 The 18th Space Control Squadron currently environment. Since 2007 these groups have developed publishes a catalog of space objects and warns global and approved several important agreements such as space operators, including foreign governments and the UN Debris Mitigation Guidelines (2007) and the commercial operators, of potential collisions free of UNCOPUS Long-Term Sustainability Guidelines (2016 charge.6 However, at some point in the future, this and 2019), designed to address the orbital debris mission will transfer to a civilian agency to allow the challenge. Pentagon to focus more on its traditional warfighting 8 mission. The Trump administration has proposed According to data from Space-Track.Org, United transferring the mission to the U.S. Department States and Russia are responsible for the largest of Commerce, but Congress has not approved the number of objects in Earth orbit, which includes active request, and there remains disagreement in Congress satellites, spent rocket bodies, and orbital debris. This as to whether Commerce is the right agency with which is primarily due to their long history of outer space to place the mission.7 operations dating back to the 1950s. However, China TECHNOLOGY 3 GLOBAL CHINA MANAGING CHINA’S RISE IN OUTER SPACE is quickly catching up, and is now the country with the decision approving the SpaceX constellation, the FCC third-largest number of objects in orbit. Some of these required the company to come back to the commission objects are satellites and spent rocket bodies, but the with an updated plan for debris mitigation.15 The FCC majority is debris from China’s 2007 ASAT test. And further noted that: as Chinese activities in outer space continue to grow, the number of its objects in space are almost certain “Across the board, we need to prepare for the to increase, making it critical that we find a way to proliferation of satellites in our higher altitudes… constructively engage China on orbital debris.