State of the Art Commercial Electric Vehicles in Western Urban Europe Commercial Electric Vehicles in western urban Europe State of the art This report contains the outputs of a state of the art study of commercial electric vehicles (CEV) commissioned by the Cross River Partnership (CRP) and carried out by Element Energy. Background CRP is leading EVUE (Electric Vehicles in Urban Europe), a platform of exchange, development and dissemination of electric vehicle (EV) strategies for a consortium of 9 European cities, based on the URBACT II model. EVUE city partners have been working in particular on the topics of infrastructure and business models for EVs. In this context, CRP commissioned a review of operational programmes (OPs) in order to provide EVUE cities with guidance when seeking funding for electric vehicle activities. However, with the 2007-2013 EU budget period coming to a close, the OPs from which funding can be sought by the partner cities have been allocated. Following feedback from all the EVUE partners and consistent with the aim of securing EU investment funding, it was suggested support on more general funding opportunities should be provided instead. Aim of the report When it comes to identifying “the opportunities for better integrating city EV strategies”, each city under the EVUE project has been developing their own city specific Local Action Plan (LAP). The next challenge is to secure implementation funding for these strategies. Therefore, in order to assist EVUE cities in securing funding for EV activities, this report provides a ‘state of art’ on EVs as this is a typical requirement of EU funding programmes. FP7, Theme 7 “Transport” Work programme and EVs Within the overall scope of the EVUE project’s focus on e-mobility, and recognising the challenges imposed by the financial crisis on most partners, it was identified that where electric vehicles are especially beneficial i.e., trips of less than 120km in areas with significant noise and air pollution, would be a good focus for funding opportunities. Subsequently an awareness of the opportunities associated with the freight and logistics industry was seen as appropriate. The overall aims and objectives of the FP7 Work Programme for Transport are to develop integrated, safer, “greener” and “smarter” pan-European transport systems and are therefore very relevant to EVs deployment. The Work Programme also encourages electric vehicle technologies to not be treated in isolation from the rest of the transport system notably by involving wide range of stakeholders in different aspects of EV based logistics (grid operators, vehicle manufacturers, different municipalities, logistics service providers…). The demonstrators or trials funded under this programme are an opportunity to test and collect data on the performance of EVs and their impact on the surroundings, including local impact on the grid, in different settings across Europe. FP7 projects can also include analysis framework to identify likely systemic impacts of wider scale deployment of EVs on the grid, environment and transport network. 3 Commercial Electric Vehicles in western urban Europe State of the art Overview of e-freight’s challenges In order to reach the EU goal to limit climate change below 2ºC, emissions need to be reduced by 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050. In addition, the European Green Car Initiative (EGCI)1 also underlines that delays and pollutions caused by urban traffic are the source of €100 billion worth of losses, or 1% of the EU’s GDP, every year to the European economy. A large proportion of air pollution and CO2 problems derive from city vehicle fleets. TNO analysis shows that by 2015 about 74 % of the local traffic emissions in European cities will come from 14 % of the kilometers driven2. The majority of those kilometers are from light commercial vehicles and medium to large trucks. This demonstrated that short and long term action plans on freight vehicles in urban areas are necessary to allow a significant reduction of local emissions. Several projects on a European level, including FIDEUS3 and ELCIDIS4 have aimed at demonstrating the use of EVs in logistics. However, their impact on vehicle uptake has been limited, mainly because the battery technology used at the time (lead-acid, nickel-cadmium, ZEBRA) meant the EVs were not only expensive but also limited in range, power and payload. On the contrary, vehicles based on lithium-ion batteries have allowed significant power and energy density improvement over the EVs of the 1990s and 2000s. This technology leap means fewer barriers are to be overcome. The challenge now is to improve the practical and commercial viability of ultra-low emission vehicles for freight. This report includes sections on electric vehicle technologies and charging infrastructures in the context of urban logistic operations. Investigating urban logistics has involved reviewing recent European Commission Framework Programme (FP) projects which are at the forefront of best practices. The state of the art on EVs and their infrastructure is also based on Element Energy’s knowledge of the industry. 1 EGCI - European Green Cars Initiative PPP - Multi-annual roadmap and long-term strategy – Nov 2010 2 TNO, Schone lucht voor Amsterdam - Herijking Amsterdamse maatregelen luchtkwaliteit, Jun 2011 3 Freight Intelligent Delivery of Goods in European Urban Spaces, FP6 funded 2005 – 2008 (http://www.efreightproject.eu/knowledge/defaultinfo.aspx?topicid=383&index=6) 4 Electric Vehicle City Distribution, FP6 funded 1998-2002. See Appendix 4 Commercial Electric Vehicles in western urban Europe State of the art 1 Electric freight vehicles 1.1 Challenges and potential barriers for e-freight’s development Technologies development and domestic as much as international goals to reduce CO2 emissions are likely to have a positive impact on the uptake of EVs. However, the future of EV is closely linked to complex issues such as oil price and consumer acceptance that are not easy to predict. Technological innovation and efforts to accelerate the deployment of clean vehicles have to be encouraged to overtake the barriers to EVs’ development. Cost considerations One of the main barriers to the spur of EVs in logistics is their high cost. Generally the challenge is the high capital cost, which is only partially offset by a reduced operating cost. For example, the current total costs of ownership (TCO) of CEVs are higher than a conventional diesel van over four years, as the running cost savings do not offset the additional purchase price. The current TCO premium is above 50% for a pure EV in larger vans, though this is sensitive to assumptions on fuel price inflation and servicing costs. Figure 1 illustrates this problem for a sample vehicle class, in terms of their TCO in 2011: Figure 1: Comparison of total cost of ownership for 2011 panel van (2.6-2.8t GW) of various powertrains. Source: Element Energy, Ultra Low Emission Vans study for the Department for Transport, UK, 2011 There is however a strong potential for EVs in the light commercial vehicle market in the long term, as rising fuel costs and falling battery and fuel cell costs cause ownership costs to converge by 2030. All powertrains except the pure EV are within 10% of the ownership costs 5 Commercial Electric Vehicles in western urban Europe State of the art of a diesel van, which interviews with van operators suggest is the maximum premium they are willing to pay to deploy EVs across their fleets. Figure 2 illustrates this development for a sample vehicle class, in terms of their total cost of ownership in 2030: Figure 2: Comparison of total cost of ownership for 2030 panel van (2.6-2.8t GW) of various powertrains. Source: Element Energy, Ultra Low Emission Vans study for the Department for Transport, UK, 2011 The high battery costs, which dominate the total cost of ownership for EVs along with penalties associated with the range and charge time, are likely to persist for the foreseeable future and be a major barrier to widespread uptake of EVs. Lack of certainty surrounding the residual value of the vehicles also affects the economic viability of EVs. Therefore novel solutions are required to meet the policy objective of deploying EVs in logistics applications. A combination of technical, logistical and policy measures are needed to improve the ownership cost case for EV operators and penalise conventional vehicles, in an attempt to tilt the economic balance in favour of EVs. These effects are illustrated schematically in Figure 3. Figure 3: Schematic view of vehicle ownership cost over time: incumbent (in grey) versus electric vehicles (in black) 6 Commercial Electric Vehicles in western urban Europe State of the art In order to achieve the 2030 uptake of EVs required by the EC’s White Paper, a range of mechanisms will be required to overcome the capital cost penalty for operators. For example: Procurement – using bulk procurement strategies (to reduce capex through volume purchase) and also including EV requirements in logistics procurement by customers. The purchase of large CEV fleets by state owned utility companies is a major instrument in the strategy of the French National Electric Vehicles Plan to achieve the objective of 450,000 electric/hybrid vehicles by 2005. 2 million vehicles by 2020 and 4.5 million by 2015. 19 private and public sector organisations (including Air France, Areva, Bouygues, EDF, France Telecom, GDF Suez, La Poste, RATP, SNCF, Veolia and Vinci have committed to put in service 50,000 electric vehicles by 2015. La Poste intends to run 15,637 Renault Kangoo ZE vehicles and 3,074 Peugeo Ion vehicles by 2015. The aim of the project is to encourage low carbon powertrains use for delivery and therefore reduce the sectors emissions. The project is also willing to work on acceptance issues by spreading knowledge on the technology.