Unwelcome Change: Understanding, Evaluating, and Extending Theories of Democratic Backsliding Ellen Lust Department of Political Science Yale University 115 Prospect Street Rosenkranz Hall New Haven, CT 06520 David Waldner Department of Politics University of Virginia 1540 Jefferson Park Avenue Gibson Hall Charlottesville, VA 22904 Final Version Submitted June 11, 2015 This publication was prepared under a Subaward funded by the Institute of International Education (IIE) under the Democracy Fellows and Grants (DFG) Program, award # AID-OAA-A-12-00039, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The content of this publication does not necessarily reflect the views, analysis, or policies of IIE or USAID, nor does any mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by IIE or USAID. TABLE OF CONTENTS Democratic Backsliding ......................................................................................................................1 1. Conceptualizing Democratic Backsliding .............................................................................................. 2 2. Description and Evaluation of Theory Families ..................................................................................... 8 Part One: Structure, Agency, and Causation ........................................................................................8 Part Two: Introducing Six Theory Families ........................................................................................ 10 1. Political Leadership ............................................................................................................................. 10 2. Political Culture ................................................................................................................................... 10 3. Political Institutions ............................................................................................................................. 11 4. Political Economy ................................................................................................................................ 12 5. Social Structure and Political Coalitions .............................................................................................. 13 6. International Factors ........................................................................................................................... 14 Part Three: Hypotheses .................................................................................................................... 15 1. Hypotheses about Political Leadership ............................................................................................... 16 1.1. Tactical Judgment ........................................................................................................................ 16 1.2. Strategic Interaction I: Elite Compromise .................................................................................... 17 1.3. Strategic Interaction II: Negotiated Transitions ........................................................................... 18 1.4. Super-Presidentialism .................................................................................................................. 18 1.5 Leaders’ Normative Preferences ................................................................................................... 20 2. Hypotheses About Political Culture .................................................................................................... 21 2.1. Civic Culture ................................................................................................................................. 21 2.2. Social Capital ................................................................................................................................ 22 2.3. Civic Education ............................................................................................................................. 24 2.4. Electoral Abuse and Collective Action ......................................................................................... 25 3. Hypotheses about Political Institutions .............................................................................................. 26 3.1. Presidential Democracies ............................................................................................................. 26 3.2. Consociational Democracy ........................................................................................................... 27 3.3. Inclusive Electoral Institutions ..................................................................................................... 28 3.4. Party System Fractionalization ..................................................................................................... 28 3.5 Party System Collapse ................................................................................................................... 29 3.6. Dominant-Party Systems in Africa ............................................................................................... 30 3.7 Mobilizational Asymmetry ............................................................................................................ 31 3.8. Hybrid Regimes ............................................................................................................................ 32 3.9. Judicial Review ............................................................................................................................. 32 Hypotheses about Political Economy ...................................................................................................... 33 4.1. Levels of Income .......................................................................................................................... 33 4.2. Distribution of Income ................................................................................................................. 34 4.3. Oil Income Hinders Democracy .................................................................................................... 35 4.4. Oil Income & Democratic Backsliding .......................................................................................... 35 4.5. Macroeconomic Performance ..................................................................................................... 36 Hypotheses about Social Structure and Political Coalitions ................................................................... 37 5.1. The Bourgeoisie and Democracy ................................................................................................. 37 5.2 The Working Class and Democracy ............................................................................................... 38 5.3. Peasants and Political Order ........................................................................................................ 38 5.4. Ethnic Competition and Polarization ........................................................................................... 39 Hypotheses about International Factors ................................................................................................ 40 6.1. International Leverage and Linkage ............................................................................................. 40 6.2. International Diffusion ................................................................................................................. 41 6.3. International Organizations ......................................................................................................... 42 6.4. Foreign Aid ................................................................................................................................... 43 6.5. International Election Monitoring ............................................................................................... 43 Part Four: Summary Evaluation of Theory Families and Hypotheses .................................................. 44 Political Elites .......................................................................................................................................... 44 Political Culture ....................................................................................................................................... 44 Political Institutions................................................................................................................................. 45 Political Economy .................................................................................................................................... 46 Social Structure and Political Coalitions .................................................................................................. 47 Hypotheses about International Factors ................................................................................................ 47 Theory Matrix ..................................................................................................................................48 Theory Family 1: Political Leadership...................................................................................................... 48 Theory Family 2: Political Culture ........................................................................................................... 51 Theory Family 3: Political Institutions ..................................................................................................... 54 Theory