DIGITAL 2035 A Futures Report on Healthcare and Technology “Now is the time to act and build the future we want.” The Business Innovation Garage 2 FOREWORD What lies ahead for Novo Nordisk? It’s impossible to predict the future—so why should you care about the future scenarios in this report? Read further and you’ll find thoroughly explored trends and issues that will have a massive effect on the way Novo Nordisk does business fifteen years from now. Why 2035? It’s just far enough ahead to bring a sense of curiosity and excitement for a moment that we can’t predict with full accuracy, and just close enough to develop concrete The Business Innovation Garage is a newly formed plans of action to achieve what we want. Even though the future will almost certainly look department within Global IT that identifies and different from what we’re describing, it is necessary to use fictional narratives to start a drives growth opportunities created by emerging dialogue, ask questions, and challenge assumptions on what’s next for us as a company. technology. Our strategic focus is on solutions and technologies that are new to Novo Nordisk and Technology will play a prominent role in the future, and we have seen how the current trend new to the pharma industry. towards digital transformation is changing the way we live and work. These scenarios focus Interested in understanding how the trends and on technology as the driving force that will lead us to the futures we’ve illustrated and help scenarios in this report could impact your area? us achieve the ambitious goals we’re pushing for in this report. Do you have an idea for a game-changing approach to our business? Now is the time to act and build the future we want. We hope you’ll agree with us that the potentials are limitless. Get in touch with us by writing to: Matt Dugan (MYDU), Head of Innovation. Thank you to the participants and stakeholders who provided important business and industry insights, which greatly contributed to the production of this report. 3 “We chose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things—not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” John F. Kennedy, 35th President of the United States “I don't think the space station is innovative. Going to the moon was innovative because we had no idea how to do it.” Peter Diamandis, Founder of X Prize Foundation and Cofounder of Singularity University 4 Moonshots are ideas that strive for 10x growth while the rest of the world is aiming for 10%. It can't be achieved by working harder alone —you have to be willing to try seemingly crazy ideas. Huge Problem Moonshot Break- Radical through Solution Technology Anatomy of a Moonshot 5 “Big Tech companies like HP and Amazon and Apple and Google and Microsoft all realize that [healthcare] is the largest remaining industry that has not been revolutionized by modern technologies that have transformed every other big industry in the United States.” “We didn’t set out to John Scully, Chairman of RxAdvance and Apple’s Ex-CEO disrupt healthcare. > CNBC, Feb 2020 1 We set out to meet the needs of our customers at Walmart.” Sean Slovenski, Walmart President of Health and Wellness $5.4B > Forrester, July 2020 3 US digital health companies raised $5.4B in venture funding across the first six months of 2020. The sector is on track to have its largest funding year ever. > Rock Health, 2020 2 6 Table of Contents 6 Executive Summary 8 Introduction 9 > The Terminology 1 0 > The Methodology 11 Key Trends 27 Scenarios 28 > Scenario 1 – Computer Says Go 34 > Scenario 2 – Now You See Me 4 0 > Scenario 3 – Rise of the Giants 46 > Scenario 4 – Mc Healthcare 52 Sources 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Synopsis This report looks at current signals and trends in healthcare, empower the patient. But there’s also a re-bundling on the technology, and society to imagine possible futures of the horizon with platforms like Apple Health trying to become the healthcare industry up to 2035. Fourteen key trends and four central health data hub. scenarios have been identified and developed to provide orientation for ideation and decision making about new products, > New players are entering the healthcare market to disrupt. technologies, and business models that have the potential to Tech companies and retail giants are making their moves, shape the future of Novo Nordisk. bringing their digital technologies expertise and massive customer data and experience. Pharma, with its current focus on research and manufacturing, is in danger of being pushed to the fringes of the network as a provider of intel and a receiver Key Takeaways of fulfillment orders. > AI is one of the essential tech healthcare trends that influence most other trends and touch all aspects of healthcare—from > The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated many trends diagnosis to drug development to preventive care. But the towards digital healthcare like telemedicine, the unbundling crux is data to train the algorithms. Collecting and controlling of services, on-demand supply chains, and more. Startup health data will be the key to shaping digital health, while investments have exploded in these areas. No matter when the regulation and concerns about privacy and discrimination will crisis ends, it has already changed the healthcare landscape. make data ownership more complex. > It can be easy to just focus on the next big thing in technology > Digital approaches allow for an unbundling of healthcare and business. Still, forces of climate change, deglobalization, that used to be pooled around providers like hospitals— populism, and polarization dramatically shift the overall technologies like telemedicine and distributed triage offer context for these trends. Technology can no longer be looked patient-centric services that can be more personalized and at in isolation. 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Overview Key Trends VALUE-BASED POLARIZATION AI-DRIVEN CONSUMERIZED HEALTH AS MODULAR A CRISIS OF HEALTHCARE OF DATA HEALTHCARE GENOMICS THE NEW LUXURY HEALTHCARE TRUST SHIFT OWNERSHIP NEW PLAYERS DIGITAL BY PERVASIVE SYNTHETIC ON-DEMAND THE END OF NEW SUSTAINABLE IN HEALTHCARE DEFAULT PROFILING MEDIA SUPPLY CHAINS GLOBALIZATION INNOVATORS Future Scenarios SCENARIO 1 – COMPUTER SAYS GO SCENARIO 2 – NOW YOU SEE ME What if tech companies like Apple, What if Augmented Reality lenses instead of using their devices simply become a consumer product, to collect health data, start using them changing how people look at their health? to sell health insurance? SCENARIO 3 – RISE OF THE GIANTS SCENARIO 4 – McHEALTHCARE What if new players enter the healthcare What if new technologies enable a franchise industry, disrupting not innovation but model that creates access to telemedicine, distribution, with one giant company in AI diagnosis, and virtual treatment to those for particular eager and ready to make big moves? whom it wasn’t previously available or affordable? 7 INTRODUCTION The Futures of Healthcare The tectonic plates of the healthcare industry are shifting. The first chapter contains 14 key trends, from AI in healthcare Digital technologies are changing what healthcare looks like to on-demand supply chains, that describe various today. One example: the smartphone has become the new developments influencing the coming years in the healthcare hub for personal health, replacing the GP. The seismic waves industry. The second chapter combines these trends into four of this transformation can be felt ever closer. But what will different scenarios to imagine what a future might look like change for whom and over what period of time is incredibly when these trends continue on their trajectories. Signals— hard to predict. things that are happening right now—accompany all trends and scenarios to ground the future in the present. This report looks at current signals and trends to imagine possible and plausible futures of the healthcare industry to The trends and scenarios presented in this report are an enable a fresh conversation about new ideas and approaches. invitation to broaden the horizon and challenge common The key to being successful in a perpetually changing world is assumptions about a future that too often feels predetermined. not to predict one probable future but to prepare for multiple But until the future becomes the present, it remains open. possible futures. That is why this report presents four different scenarios highlighting several plausible developments. Identifying those early on allows investment in new products, technologies, and business models that have the potential to shape a preferable future. The key to being successful in a perpetually changing world is to prepare for multiple possible futures. 8 INTRODUCTION The Terminology A Signal A Pattern A Trend A Future Scenario A signal is a piece of current informa- A collection of signals that point in A hypothesis about where a pattern The actual change is much more complex tion that points to a possible change the same direction is called a pattern. might go by extrapolating from the than anticipated by individual trends because in the future, like a news article or a It strengthens the expectation for present into the future is called a trend. different trends all influence each other. statistic. For example, a telemedicine a possible change in the future. At this point, the analysis moves A scenario combines different trends and startup receiving funding could be If several startups with similar from observation to speculation or describes a certain point in the future where a signal for telemedicine becoming ideas for telemedicine get funded, prediction. A trend could describe the they all have become a present reality. It asks: more important in the next months for example, and a study also finds more significant role that telemedicine What would the future look like if these and years.