Automotive Messenger May 2016 Since the last issue of Automotive Messenger, the UK new car market continues to go from strength to strength and looking ahead, if registrations continue to grow at March 2016’s rates, it is well placed to achieve another annual record of 2.7 million plus vehicles. Nevertheless, discussion is new vehicle registrations for Ford 2016. Grant Thornton’s Automotive intensifying over the levels of pre- declined by 4.91% in March 2016 and team commissioned a survey to assess registered vehicles in the UK, Europe market share fell year-on-year from the views of our clients and contacts and US. In the US, the practice of 12.88% to 11.63%, which we believe is concerning Brexit, which indicates that self-registering (known there as due to the change in their strategy. Is 60% wanted to remain in the EU. (See 'punching') is widely and openly Ford’s strategy a brave and sensible one, page 10 for more detail.) acknowledged in the media among or is Ford swimming against a tidal wave In this issue of Automotive both manufacturers and dealers. of pre-registration? Only time will tell. Messenger we also discuss other topical At the recent Geneva Motor Joe Eberhardt from Jaguar Land news and current issues in the market Show, Jim Farley – Ford of Europe Rover – CEO, North America – including: the March 2016 registrations; President – said the automaker had suggests that generous discounting customer mobility; the changing tried to minimise two unprofitable sales and pre-registering have changed the influence of the smartphone and mobile channels: dealer self-registered vehicles way customers purchase vehicles. devices; and the full-year trading results and sales to rental fleets. "It's growing He commented: “Customers have issued by the automotive retail PLCs. [self-registering] in the US, but it is a been conditioned to expect generous perfect art in Europe," Farley recently discounts at the end of the sales period… Contents observed during an interview. "In some We have to change the customer’s 02 Passenger car registrations months in Germany, 20 to 30 percent of behaviour". However, is it too late to 05 Is your business truly mobile? the industry is product sold to your own change customers' behaviour? Have 08 PLC full year results dealers that they register for you as a customers' expectations changed for 10 An automotive view of the demo unit and sell as used cars." good or will it be a slow process to wean EU referendum Ford of Europe has decided to change customers off these discounts? 12 News snippets its strategy by cutting its share of Another hot topic is the UK’s future 18 UK new vehicle registrations dealers’ self-registered sales in Europe. membership of the EU, which will be 20 New commercial vehicle registrations In the most recent UK March statistics determined by a referendum on 23 June 21 EU and EFTA passenger car registrations Tarun Mistry Neil Barrell Bill Parfitt CBE Paul Burrows Owen Edwards T +44 (0)20 7728 2404 T +44 (0)20 7865 2700 T +44 (0)20 7385 5100 T +44 (0)1908 359 554 T +44 (0)20 7865 2291 M +44 (0)7966 432 299 M +44 (0)7976 550 312 M +44 (0)7528 870 341 M +44 (0)7850 538 309 M +44 (0)7811 991 128 E [email protected] E [email protected] E [email protected] E [email protected] E [email protected] Automotive Messenger Passenger car registrations – continued growth as registrations 'punch above' Q1 2015 Registrations increased by 5.1% during the first quarter of 2016, with March delivering another record month for the sector growing by 5.3% and registering 518,707 new units. However, registrations are not of 6.0% and accounting for 44.9% registrations fell by 4.91% in March matching sales and May will face much of total UK registrations. March and by 0.96% in the first quarter legacy activity. tends to be the peak of private sales of 2016, with market share dipping If this growth rate continues as illustrated in previous editions considerably by 0.74% points. As throughout the year, 2.7 million units of Automotive Messenger. There is we highlighted on the cover, Ford will have been registered in the UK probably some blurring of allocation of Europe's decision to reduce the by December 2016 making it another between the two categories with number of its self-registered vehicles exceptional year. different routes to market so that across Europe may have been a driver assertion has to be treated with to the decline. It will be interesting New vehicle registration caution. to see whether other manufacturers analysis Although Ford remained the follow suit or whether Ford can swim 771,780 units were registered in Q1 biggest-selling brand in the UK, its against the tide of self-registered 2016. The UK plate change drives a market share dropped. Ford vehicle vehicles. very spikey pattern, so could we see over 2.7 million being reached? Private registrations were up 3.8% in March and by 6.3% over the year to date. Fleet registrations grew strongly in March, posting annualised growth 2 Automotive Messenger New vehicle registrations for both Commercial vehicles Nissan and Peugeot declined by over The SMMT is now proposing to 5% year-on-year for the first three provide heavy truck registration data months to March 2016. Consequently only quarterly and at the time of going both suffered a 0.5% point decrease in to press, Q1 2016 is not yet available. market share. The VW brand, despite We have therefore focussed our the issues surrounding its emissions comments on the commercial vehicle testing scandal, achieved a small market. annualised increase in registrations in Registrations for the commercial March 2016, although unit registration vehicle market were mixed. Demand declined by 4.88% over the first for light commercial vehicles rose quarter as a whole and market share by 3.3% in March 2016. In Q1 was lost. 2016, 98,906 vans were registered, So, who has benefited? The three representing an increase of 1.2% over German premium brands (Audi, the same period last year. Growth BMW and Mercedes-Benz) increased was driven by larger vans (2.5T to registrations by 12.6%, both in 3.5T), with a 14.2% rise in March and March and over the year to date. This offsetting a decline in demand for strong growth is likely to have been smaller vehicles. underpinned by consumer accessibility Among commercial vehicles and demand for premium brands, below 3.5 tonnes, Ford continues to the OEMs’ corporate strategies to lead the market, stretching its share increase market share by providing from 26.07% in the month of March buyer incentives and a continued 2015 to 31.87% in March 2016. This increase in personal contract purchase increase was achieved at the expense (PCP) demand focused on the pound of Vauxhall (down by 9.25%) and VW per month metric rather than the (down 10%); the latter suffering from headline price. The German premium the emissions scandal. brands now account for around 18% In the mid-size van market (3.5 to of all vehicles registered in the UK. 6.0 tonne vehicles), Ford has become Put into context, Ford and Vauxhall the dominant player, achieving market combined accounted for around 22% share of almost 35% and posting an of UK market share. If the three main annualised increase of 1.3% in March German premium brands continue to 2016. Nevertheless, the number sustain their current level of growth, of units in this market is modest they could well achieve 19-20% compared with that of the smaller market share by the end of the year, van market, with only 1,889 vehicles a level of market share that says a lot registered in the first quarter of 2016. about the new world. Automotive Messenger May 2016 3 Automotive Messenger FLA statistics slower than that for new vehicles. to February 2016, up from 81.7% Financing is one of the primary drivers Growth volumes between 2009 and in the twelve months to January. of growth in the market so we recently 2015 for new vehicles and used vehicles The point-of-sale consumer used introduced the subject when reviewing were 190% and 150% respectively (see car finance market also saw strong market registrations. In the last edition charts below). growth in February, with new of Automotive Messenger we reviewed The percentage of private new business up 23% by value and 18% by the history of the PCP market, vehicle sales financed by FLA volume year-on-year. focusing on the FLA's (Finance members through point-of-sale Leasing Association's) new and used reached 81.9% in the twelve months financing of vehicles by volume since 2009. In this edition, we review the Average price per car – Consumer new cars trend in average prices of vehicles 20,000 since 2009. According to the FLA statistics, 15,000 the average price of new cars financed for consumers increased by 37.8% 10,000 between February 2009 and February 2016, rising from £11,418 to a peak of £15,740. Growth has been consistent 5,000 across this area of the market and Average price per car (£) anecdotal evidence suggests that, in 0 Jan '09 Jan '10 Jan '11 Jan '12 Jan '13 Jan '14 Jan '15 Jan '16 the premium segment of the market, the increase in the average value of Average price per car – Consumer used cars financing per vehicle has been driven 12,000 by higher real prices for vehicles and a greater willingness among consumers 10,000 to use financing to purchase a vehicle.