Building Bancroft Project Business Opportunity Assessment Residential Analysis Bancroft, Ontario BUILDING BANCROFT N. BARRY LYON CONSULTANTS LIMITED APRIL 2010 February 21, 2010 Mr. Greg Black Project Manager Build Bancroft Project PO Box 790 24 Flint Avenue Bancroft, Ontario K0L 1C0 Dear Greg, Re: Building Bancroft Project, Business Opportunity Assessment, Residential Analysis Please find attached our final report on the feasibility of residential development as a component of the Building Bancroft Project. Yours truly, N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited Mark Conway Partner TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 2 2. Site Evaluation ................................................................................................................................ 3 3. Demogrphic and Economic Profile ................................................................................................. 9 4. Competetive Market Review ........................................................................................................ 17 5. Product & Concept Development ................................................................................................ 25 6. Financial Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 28 7. Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 30 Appendix A – Detailed Financial Analysis ............................................................................................. 31 Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | i February, 2010 1. INTRODUCTION N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited (NBLC) has been retained by Building Bancroft to undertake a strategic assessment of the market potential for residential development in downtown Bancroft, Ontario. The Town of Bancroft has initiated the Building Bancroft Project as it looks to rebuild and revitalize its downtown, in an effort to counter population loss and a declining economy. A residential component is viewed as highly desirable in terms of generating activity and animation in the downtown as well as generating revenue from the sale of land. The aim of this study is to review the prevailing economic and demographic characteristics of Bancroft and then, with these characteristics in mind, work to develop an appropriate residential development program, that could be incorporated into a larger scheme. The full scheme could include features such as a new community centre, municipal offices and a major regional tourist attraction. Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 2 February, 2010 2. SITE EVALUATION The Town of Bancroft is located within Hastings County in Central Ontario. The town is built in the York River Valley, centred on the intersection of Highways 28 and 62. Positioned on the southern edge of the Canadian Shield, the landscape provides a picturesque natural setting, offering various outdoor recreation opportunities, including: boating, swimming, hiking, rock climbing, golf, kayaking, cross‐country skiing, and snowmobiling. Downtown Bancroft The history of Bancroft is one steeped in milling, mining and the railroad; a lot of which is currently still reflected in the Town. The Old Station is home to the Art Gallery of Bancroft and the Bancroft Mineral Museum. The Mineral Museum plays homage to the Town’s mining history displaying locally collected mineral samples. Bancroft is often referred to as the “Mineral Capital of Canada” due to the variety of minerals found in the area, and each year hosts the popular “Gemboree” festival in late July. Also, the Hastings Heritage Trail follows the region’s abandoned rail line, providing 350 linear kilometres of multi‐use recreational space. The Old Station & Hastings Heritage Trail Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 3 February, 2010 2.1 Location As illustrated in Figure 1, the Town of Bancroft is located almost an equal distance between Toronto and Ottawa, and just over an hour away from Peterborough, the closest major urban centre. The following table outlines the drive‐times to several major centres and attractions from Bancroft. Table 1 Drive Times From Bancroft Distance Drive‐ Location Direction (km) Time Toronto SW 240 2:45 Ottawa E 225 3:00 Kingston SE 190 2:30 Belleville SE 115 1:40 Pembroke NE 160 1:55 Peterborough SW 105 1:15 Haliburton W 65 1:00 Huntsville NW 170 2:10 U.S. Border (Thousand Islands) SE 230 2:50 Algonquin Park NW 70 1:00 Figure 1 Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 4 February, 2010 The area road network is centered on the intersection of Highway 28 and Highway 62. These roads provide connections to Peterborough and Belleville, and connect to Highways 115 and 401 respectively. Highway 28 continues east from Bancroft providing connections towards Ottawa and the Ottawa River Valley. 2.2 Local Community Context 2.2.1 Healthcare Bancroft is well served by healthcare and professional services for a community of its size. The North Hastings Health Centre is located in Bancroft, and along with the supplementary Bancroft Professional Centre, combines to provide a full range of medical care and services. Further, local community groups like Community Care North Hastings provide volunteer‐based support for seniors and adults with disabilities. North Hastings Health Centre The Quinte Health Care North Hastings site is comprised of both the North Hastings District Hospital and the Hastings Centennial Manor. • Built in 2002, the North Hastings District Hospital is a six‐bed primary acute care hospital which operates a 24‐hour emergency ward (including Emergency Obstetrics). • The hospital’s beds are designated for those patients with medical conditions, as opposed to surgical. The hospital also provides outreach clinics (Internal Medicine, Obstetrics/Gynaecology, Urology), support, diagnostic (Radiology, Ultrasound), and treatment services. • In addition, the hospital offers Diabetes Education, Nutrition Counselling and manages a Health Records Department. • Also, the hospital has a six‐chair Dialysis Unit, reducing the need for patients to travel to larger urban areas for treatment. 2.2.2 Education Bancroft is served by the Hastings and Prince Edward District School Board (HPEDSB; public school system) as well as the Algonquin and Lakeshore Catholic District School Board. Combined, these school systems serve Bancroft through 6 public schools and one Catholic school, namely: • Bancroft Public School, junior kindergarten to grade 6; • Birds Creek Public School, junior kindergarten to grade 6; • Hermon Public School, junior kindergarten to grade 6; • North Hastings Senior Elementary School, grades 7 to 8; • North Hastings High School, grades 9 to 12; and, • Our Lady of Mercy Catholic School, junior kindergarten to grade 8. Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 5 February, 2010 In terms of post secondary education, Bancroft is home to a satellite campus of Loyalist College. The Bancroft location offers programs in Nursing, Personal Support Worker, Paramedics, along with other programs for continuing education and adult literacy. Further, Fleming College has campuses in Haliburton and Peterborough, and Loyalist College’s main campus is located in Belleville. Bancroft, like many other communities in Ontario, bas been experiencing declining enrolment in its public school system. Between the 2007/08 and 2008/09 school years, the HPEDSB experienced a decline of 327 students at the elementary level, and a further loss of 14 at the local secondary school level1. The Province’s Accommodation Review Committee process will take place in the 2013/14 school year and will determine the potential for school closures at that time. Until then, the board will continue to shuffle administration and students between schools in order to maintain standards. 2.2.3 Shops and Services Bancroft’s Downtown area boasts a wide array of shopping and service opportunities for its residents and visitors. The main street comprises a mix of local shops and services and larger national brands, especially in terms of banks, grocers and hardware/ home improvement retailers. 2.2.4 Parks and Recreation In addition to nearby Algonquin Park, which covers 7,653 square kilometres, several parks and community recreational facilities exist within Bancroft. Local recreational opportunities include: • Bancroft Millennium Park on the York River, this park contains a senior’s clubhouse, band shell, and walking trails. • Riverside Park, also on the York River, this park is home to a museum, walking trails and a playground. • The Hastings Heritage Trail, which offers 350 linear kilometres of multi‐purpose trails along an abandoned rail line. • Eagle’s Nest lookout also has walking/hiking trails, rock climbing, and offers panoramic views of the York River Valley. • Two local golf courses, Bancroft Golf Course and Rivers Edge. • Several community centres and associated facilities are located within Bancroft, these include: o The Bancroft Curling Club; o Bancroft Skating Club; o Bancroft Tennis Club; o Bancroft Public Library; o Club 580 (Senior’s Park); o North Hastings Community Centre; and, o Several other community centres are located in the surrounding area (Faraday, Dungannon, Maynooth, Musclow). 1 Schell, Dan. “Trying to manage declining