Talkin’ ‘bout our Generations: Baby Boomers and Millennials in the United States Sandra L. Colby Population Division U.S. Census Bureau Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, San Diego, CA, April 30-May 2, 2015. This paper is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress. Any views expressed on statistical, methodological, technical, or operational issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau. Abstract Over the next several years, baby boomers will continue to transition into retirement and old age as millennials (including echo boomers) pass through the traditional benchmarks of adulthood (e.g., completing college, finding employment, and establishing independent households). The future direction of each of these groups is of increasing interest to researchers as well as to policymakers and the general public. This paper provides a demographic foundation for understanding the importance of these generations by first characterizing their membership and then analyzing projected changes in their composition over time. U.S. Census Bureau data are used to track baby boomers and millennials through their past, present, and future. Distinctions are drawn between these generations on key demographic variables at different stages of the life course. School enrollment data are used to illustrate the impact that each of these generations had on the education system while passing through one of life’s major milestones. The cohort born during the post-World War II baby boom in the United States, referred to as the baby boomers, has been driving change in the age structure of the U.S. population since their birth. Because of this, they have been the focus of much attention as they pass through each of life’s major milestones. The baby boomers began turning 65 in 2011 and are now driving growth at the oldest ages of the population. As this cohort moves through yet another stage of the human life course, the future direction of this group is of increasing interest to researchers as well as to policymakers and the general public. At the same time that the baby boomers are transitioning into retirement ages, another large cohort, the millennials, is beginning to pass through the traditional benchmarks of adulthood (e.g. completing college, finding employment, and establishing independent households). Millennials, many of whom are the children of baby boomers, are also of increasing interest to the aforementioned groups. This paper provides a demographic foundation for understanding the importance of these generations by first characterizing their membership and then analyzing projected changes in their composition over time. U.S. Census Bureau population estimates and projections are used to track baby boomers and millennials through their past, present, and future, while school enrollment data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) are used to illustrate the impact that each of these cohorts has had on societal resources, using compulsory education as an example. WHO ARE THE BABY BOOMERS The term ‘baby boomer’ refers to individuals born in the United States between mid-1946 and mid-1964 (Hogan, Perez, and Bell, 2008). Distinctions between the baby boom cohort and birth cohorts comprising proceeding and subsequent generations become apparent when fertility measures are framed within a historical context. The baby boom in the United States was marked by a substantial rise in birth rates after World War II. Two features of the baby boom differentiate this increase from those previously experienced: the size of the birth cohort and the length of time for which these higher levels of fertility were sustained. As shown in Figure 1, birth rates in the United States declined steadily in the decades leading up to World War II. A notable deviation in this trend was a short-term increase in fertility after World War I. In 1909, there were 30 births per 1,000 population, but by 1933, these rates had fallen to 18.4. For the next seven years, as the United States experienced the Great Depression, birth rates hovered between 18 and 19. In response to economic improvements and U.S. participation in World War II, birth rates began to fluctuate in the early 1940s, increasing to just under 23 in 1943 and then falling to just over 20 in 1945. In the first year of the baby boom, 1946, rates increased to 24 births per 1,000 population, and in 1947, they peaked at 26.5. As previously noted, the increase in fertility following a major war was not without precedent. In 1920, following World War I, birth rates also increased. However, in that instance, rates declined back to their pre-boom levels within two years. During the post-World War II baby boom, the United States experienced 18 years of elevated birth rates, with rates remaining above the pre-boom levels until 1964. Although the birth rates observed during the baby boom were not the highest ever seen in the United States, the number of births during those years was unprecedented. In 1945, 2.9 million births were reported. This increased by almost 20 percent to 3.4 million births in 1946 [National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) 2005]. Births continued to increase through the rest of the 1940s and into the 1950s, reaching a peak of 4.3 million in 1957. By 1965, the baby boom had ended and births fell below the 4 million mark – a level not exceeded again until 1989, when baby boomers were having children of their own. In the 35 years prior to the baby boom, the number of annual births had crossed the 3 million mark twice, in 1921 and 1943. Since the baby boom, annual birth cohorts have consistently remained above 3 million. MILLENNIALS DEFINED In contrast to the baby boom cohort, whose membership is defined based on substantial changes in U.S. birth rates, the millennial cohort is a generation that is largely defined on the basis of shared experiences. Because of this, the dates surrounding membership in the millennial cohort are loosely defined. While most agree that millennials are those born in the last two decades of the 20th century, there is considerable variation in the exact range of years specified for inclusion. For instance, Strauss and Howe, who are credited with coining the term millennial to describe this generation, define its membership as those born between 1982 and 2003 in their books Generations (1992), and Millennials Rising (2000). Others have used different ranges, including Carlson (2008) who used the dates 1983- 2001, and the Pew Research Center (Fry, 2015), which uses the dates of 1981-1997 in an analysis of adult millennials, but does not identify a chronological end point for the group. For the purposes of this report, millennials are defined as those born between 1982 and 2000. No special significance should be attributed to this selection – the starting date was selected to align with the origin date identified by Strauss and Howe, and the end date was established because it encompasses an 18-year period (the same number of birth years included in the baby boom cohort). The absence of a clear change in fertility to demarcate the millennial cohort is shown in Figure 1. Where there was a large increase in both the number of births and in the birth rates between 1945 and 1946, there is no corresponding increase to establish the start of the millennial cohort. Rather, births and birth rates began rising in the late 1970s as baby boomers started having their own children, commencing what is sometimes referred to as the “echo boom.” While millennials are part of the echo boom, it should be noted that not all echo boomers are millennials. Between 1976 and 1977, the number of births in the United States increased from just under 3.2 million to slightly more than 3.3 million, an increase of 5 percent. The increase in births corresponded to an increase in the U.S. birth rate from 14.5 to 15.1. This uptick in births and in the birth rate was the start of a general trend toward increased fertility in the United States that lasted through 1990, at which time births peaked at 4.2 million and the birth rate at 16.7. Between 1991 and 1997, the number of births once again declined, as did the U.S. birth rate. Although birth rates continued to decline through 2013, the number of births increased between 1998 and 2007, from just below 4 million to 4.3 million, only to decline again from 2008 through 2013 in response to the latest economic recession. While the birth cohorts comprising the millennial generation were as large, and in some cases larger, than those of the baby boom, the millennial generation differs from the baby boomers because these large birth cohorts are part of a broader trend that started in the previous generation (generation X) and is continuing into the next. In other words, the fertility trends associated with the beginning of this generation are not exceptional. SIZE AND GROWTH OF THE MILLENNIAL AND BABY BOOM COHORTS Annual estimates of the population within each generation are shown for the years 2000 to 2060 (Figure 2). Although baby boomers are defined as those born in the United States, the data presented throughout the remainder of this report for the baby boom generation include individuals born abroad between 1946 and 1964 who migrated to the United States. In 2000, the last birth year included in the millennial cohort, there were an estimated 78.7 million baby boomers, compared to 76.5 million millennials.