INTERNATIONAL INTERGOVERNMENTAL WORLD COUNCIL FOR OCEANOGRAPHIC METEOROLOGICAL SCIENCE COMMISSION ORGANIZATION WORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAMME STRATOSPHERIC PROCESSES AND THEIR ROLE IN CLIMATE (SPARC) REPORT OF THE TWELFTH SESSION OF THE SCIENTIFIC STEERING GROUP (Dunsmuir Lodge, Sydney, British Columbia, Canada, 9-12 August 2004) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. 1. Introduction......................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Opening of the session, introductory comments ......................................................... 3 1.2 WCRP Comments ....................................................................................................... 3 2. Review of the main events since the last SSG................................................................... 4 3. The new SPARC International Project Office (SPARC IPO) .............................................. 4 4. Presentations from the Canadian Climate Research Community ...................................... 5 5. The SPARC Themes .......................................................................................................... 6 5.1. Detection, Attribution, Prediction ................................................................................. 6 5.2. Stratospheric Chemistry and Climate.......................................................................... 8 5.3. Stratosphere/Troposphere Dynamical Coupling ....................................................... 10 6. Cross-Cutting and Supporting Projects ............................................................................ 11 6.1. Assessment of Stratospheric Aerosol Properties (ASAP) ......................................... 11 6.2. Data Assimilation....................................................................................................... 11 6.3. The SPARC Gravity Wave Initiative .......................................................................... 11 6.4. LAUTLOS Field Campaign for Hygrosonde Comparisons ........................................ 12 7. Coordination with Other Agencies/Programmes .............................................................. 12 7.1. European COST 723 Action...................................................................................... 12 7.2. Participation of SPARC in the International Polar Year 2007-2008 and International Geophysical Year................................................................................................................. 13 7.3. ESA/Earth Explorer Missions for Implementation ..................................................... 13 7.4. NASA......................................................................................................................... 14 7.5. CSA Activities of Relevance to SPARC .................................................................... 14 7.6. Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change ........................................................ 15 7.7. COSPAR News from the Recent General Assembly ................................................ 15 7.8. SCOSTEP and Interactions with SPARC/GRIPS...................................................... 16 7.9. Solar Impact Intercomparison ................................................................................... 16 8. SPARC Data Centre......................................................................................................... 16 9. Next SSG Meeting and Actions ........................................................................................ 17 10. Closure of Session ........................................................................................................... 17 11. References ....................................................................................................................... 17 Appendix 1. List of participants Appendix 2. Agenda 3 1. Introduction 1.1 Opening of the session, introductory comments The 12th session of the SPARC Scientific Steering Group (SSG) was held at Dunsmuir Lodge, an Executive Training and Conference Centre of the University of Victoria, Sydney (BC), Canada, at the invitation of N. McFarlane, the Director of the SPARC International Project Office (IPO). The list of participants is given in the Appendix 1, the agenda as agreed is located in Appendix 2. Opening the meeting, A. Ravishankara, co-chair of the SPARC SSG, emphasized that one of the most important tasks for SPARC and the SSG session was to flesh out the scientific content of the three major project themes and define ways for their implementation. Examples of issues of high importance for SPARC are microphysics modelling, Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) chemistry, upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) interaction, the generation of stratospheric indicators of climate change, solar activity, and, increasingly, laboratory experiments. GRIPS is drawing to a close as a key successful SPARC activity, and optimal organization of future intercomparison of models is a topic of high value. In addition to fundamental research, SPARC will continue its practice of conducting focused assessments, and specialists will actively contribute to the ongoing work of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. SPARC must be prepared for the new WMO ozone assessment that will start soon, and must start collecting ideas for future IPCC assessments. SPARC must also decide how to maintain and foster closer connections with projects within and outside WCRP, such as CLIVAR and GEWEX, IGAC (IGBP), and groups like WGNE, and how to effectively contribute to new WCRP initiatives such as COPES. 1.2 WCRP Comments D. Carson presented the new overarching framework for the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), entitled "Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System" (COPES). He reviewed the development of the WCRP since its formation in 1980 under the sponsorship of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) with additional support from the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO starting from 1993. In the nearly 25 years of its existence, the main goals of WCRP have been to determine the predictability of climate and the effects of human activities on climate. There are now a number of new challenges facing the WCRP: • The problem of seamless prediction over time periods ranging from weeks to decades and longer, • Prediction of the broader climate/Earth system, • Demonstrating the use to society of WCRP-enabled science and predictions, • Efficient use of new opportunities such as new and increasing data streams, growth of computer capacities, and complexity and breadth of models and data assimilation schemes, • Interaction with other Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) programmes (DIVERSITAS, IGBP, and IHDP apart from WCRP). The main goal of COPES is to facilitate prediction of Earth system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society, and to predict the entire climate system. Initial suggestions for COPES activities include determining the predictability potential of current systems, with focus on seasonal time scales, further developing and testing ensemble forecasting methods, determining the scientific basis for, best approaches to and current skill of projections of regional climate change, developing well-tested chemistry-climate models (CCMs), and addressing projections at the decadal time scale. Formulation of specific tasks should be made in close consultation with the wider WCRP community. The Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) of WCRP will oversee COPES. The WCRP Modelling Panel will coordinate modelling initiatives across WCRP, focus on climate system prediction, and oversee data management in modelling activities. The Working Group on Observations and Assimilation (WGOA) will 4 coordinate synthesis of global observations, information and data management across WCRP and facilitate interactions with other agencies, and observing systems. New challenges for the ESSP include developing operational tools capable of monitoring and simulating the Earth System including the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere with physical, chemical and biological processes, and introducing the human dimension. This will require collaboration of the ESSP partners and the establishment of a framework for the integration, into which existing and planned research can contribute. This process should be driven by the science of global change. The SSG exchanged views on how SPARC could contribute to COPES. The obvious roles are providing guidance on how to prescribe atmospheric composition and to initialize the stratosphere in a range of applications, and proposing / implementing diagnostic studies and numerical experiments. Concerns on limited WCRP resources were raised and a need for close coordination between WCRP COPES and IGBP GAIM were expressed. It was also noted that the future activities would strongly depend on developments within the WMO and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). 2. Review of the main events since the last SSG The 3rd SPARC General Assembly (SPARC GA) was held in Victoria on 1-6 August 2004, in the week prior to the SSG meeting. The main theme of the SPARC GA was chemistry and climate. A discussion on the lessons learned and consequences for SPARC was led jointly by T. Shepherd and A. Ravishankara, co-chairs of the Scientific Committee for the