Shopping Centers and Downtowns Suffolk County, New York May 2006 Suffolk County Department of Planning Suffolk County # New York Shopping Centers and Downtowns Suffolk County, New York May 2006 Suffolk County Department of Planning H. Lee Dennison Building - 4th Floor 100 Veterans Memorial Highway P.O. Box 6100 Hauppauge, New York 11788 This publication is on the WEB at: http://www.co.suffolk.ny.us/planning Cover photo - Strip shopping center in Copiague Steve Levy SUFFOLK COUNTY EXECUTIVE Suffolk County Planning Commission John W. Caracciolo- Town of Huntington CHAIRMAN Linda Holmes - Town of Shelter Island VICE CHAIRMAN Charla E. Bolton, AICP - At Large SECRETARY Louis Dietz - Town of Babylon Edward James Pruitt - Town of Brookhaven Donald J. Fiore - Town of Islip Jesse R. Goodale III - Town of Riverhead Adrienne Esposito - Village over 5,000 population Constantine Kontokosta - Village under 5,000 population Mary Daum - At Large Sarah Lansdale - At Large Suffolk County Department of Planning Thomas A. Isles, AICP DIRECTOR OF PLANNING REPORT PREPARATION Peter K. Lambert RESEARCH DIVISION Roy Fedelem Carol Walsh CARTOGRAPHY DIVISION Carl Lind Kate Oheim Suffolk County Department of Planning Hauppauge, New York May 2006 CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................ 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 5 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS ...................................................... 9 Population Trends ......................................................................... 11 Income Trends ........................................................................... 11 2002 Census of Retail Trade ................................................................. 12 RETAIL CENTER DEFINITIONS ................................................................ 15 General Retail Center Definitions ............................................................. 17 Types of Downtowns and Shopping Centers .................................................... 17 INVENTORY OF SHOPPING CENTERS AND DOWNTOWNS ....................................... 19 Overview ................................................................................ 21 Shopping Centers ......................................................................... 21 Downtowns .............................................................................. 23 SHOPPING CENTER SPACE BY YEAR CONSTRUCTED ........................................... 25 Shopping Center and Downtown Square Footage Per Capita ....................................... 28 PROPOSED SHOPPING CENTERS .............................................................. 31 VACANT STORES IN SHOPPING CENTERS AND DOWNTOWNS ................................... 35 Downtown Vacancies ...................................................................... 37 Shopping Center Vacancies ................................................................. 40 Vacancy Rates by Type of Shopping Center .................................................... 41 Vacancy Rates in Shopping Centers by Community .............................................. 42 Vacancy Rates in Large Shopping Centers ...................................................... 45 Successes and Turnarounds ................................................................. 46 Vacant Anchor Stores ...................................................................... 47 RETAIL AND NON-RETAIL USES ............................................................... 49 CHANGES IN THE RETAIL MARKET ........................................................... 53 New Stores .............................................................................. 55 Dominance of Big Box Retailers ............................................................. 55 Increasing Size of Stores .................................................................... 57 Lifestyle Centers .......................................................................... 58 The Evolution of Malls .................................................................... 59 The Maturing of Outlet Centers .............................................................. 59 Downtown Revitalization ................................................................... 60 Internet Shopping ......................................................................... 61 RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................... 63 Overview ................................................................................ 65 Recommendations for Downtowns ............................................................ 65 Recommendations for Shopping Centers ....................................................... 70 Recommendations on Aesthetics and Pedestrian Safety in Downtowns and Shopping Centers ............. 73 BIBLIOGRAPHY .............................................................................. 77 APPENDIX .................................................................................... 81 Table I. Official NAICS Categories Instituted in 1997 for Census of Retail Trade ................... 83 Table II. Establishments Defined as Non-retail by the Suffolk County Planning Department. .......... 84 Table III. Summary Data on Shopping Centers and Central Business Districts, 2005,Suffolk Co., NY. .... 85 Table IV. Shopping Centers Larger Than 100,000 Square Feet, Suffolk County, New York, 2005. ....... 86 Table V. Inventory of Shopping Centers and Downtowns, 2005, Suffolk County, New York. .......... 88 Table VI. Proposed Shopping Centers and Expansions, 2006, Suffolk County, New York .............. 107 Table VII. Retail Center Survey Results by Community, 2005, Suffolk County, New York. ............. 108 Suffolk County Department of Planning / Shopping Centers and Downtowns, Suffolk County, New York - May 2006 i CONTENTS Page APPENDIX Continued Table VIII. Ranking of Downtowns by Vacancy Rate, 2005, Suffolk County, New York ................ 112 Table IX. Ranking of Communities by Vacancy Rate in Shopping Centers,2005, Suffolk County, New York ..................................................... 114 Table X. Percent of Occupied Storefronts Used For Retail Purposes, 2005, Suffolk County, New York . 116 MAPS ............................................................................. 117 Map 1 Downtown Districts ............................................................ Map 1 Map 2 Large Shopping Centers ........................................................... Map 2 Map 3 Shopping Center Vacancy Rates .................................................... Map 3 TABLES 1. Retail Sales Data, Nassau and Suffolk Counties, New York ....................................... 13 2. 1997 and 2002 Retail Sales by Major Retail Category, Suffolk County .............................. 14 3. Number of Shopping Centers by Type, in Order of Largest Number of Total Shopping Centers by Town, Suffolk County, 2005 .................................................................... 21 4. Square Footage in Shopping Centers by Largest Amount of Total Square Footage by Town, Suffolk County, 2005 .................................................................... 22 5. Number of Downtowns by Town, Suffolk County, 2005 ......................................... 23 6. Existing Shopping Center Square Footage by Date of Construction, Suffolk County ................... 27 7. Shopping Center Square Footage Per Capita ................................................... 28 8. Shopping Center and Downtown Square Footage Per Capita ...................................... 29 9. Square Footage of Proposed Shopping Centers and Major Center Expansions, Suffolk County, 2005 ...... 33 10. Proposed Shopping Centers and Expansions Larger than 100,000 Square Feet, Suffolk County, 2005 ...... 34 11. Vacancy Rates in Downtowns by Town, Suffolk County ......................................... 38 12. Vacancy Rates in Suffolk County’s Largest Downtown Areas ..................................... 38 13. Downtowns with the Highest Vacancy Rates, Suffolk County, 2005 ................................ 39 14. Vacancy Rates in Shopping Centers, by Town, Suffolk County .................................... 41 15. Vacancy Rates by Type of Shopping Center, by Town, 2005 ...................................... 42 16. Communities with the Highest 2005 Shopping Center Vacancy Rates ............................... 43 17. Communities with Improved Shopping Center Vacancy Rates in 2005 ............................. 44 18. Vacancy Rates in Shopping Centers Over 200,000 Square Feet, in Size Order: 1978, 1982, 1988, 1990, 1996, 2000 and 2005 ................................................. 46 FIGURES 1. Per Capita Income in Actual Dollars and Constant Dollars, Suffolk County, 1990 to 2003 ............... 12 2. Retail Sales, Nassau and Suffolk Counties, in Actual and Constant Dollars, 1997 and 2002 .............. 13 3. Typical downtown business district in Suffolk County, downtown Islip. ............................. 17 4. Westfield Shoppingtown South Shore Mall in Bay Shore, a regional shopping center .................. 17 5. Riverhead Centre, a community shopping center ............................................... 18 6. Center Moriches Square, a typical neighborhood shopping center. ................................. 18 7. A strip shopping center in Melville .......................................................... 18 8. Square Footage in Shopping