IMPACT EVALUATION OF THE LAND ADMINISTRATION TO NURTURE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT IN AFAR, ETHIOPIA Report on Baseline Findings This publication was produced at the request of the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared independently by The Cloudburst Group. Photo Credit: Aidan Schneider—The Cloudburst Group Written and prepared by Aleta Starosta, Kate Marple-Cantrell, Stephanie Fenner, Nicole Walter, Aidan Schneider, Ben Ewing, and Heather Huntington. The authors would like to thank John McPeak, Peter Little, and Zemen Haddis for their review and guidance. Prepared for the United States Agency for International Development, USAID Contract Number AID- OAA-TO-13-00019, Evaluation, Research and Communication (ERC) Task Order under Strengthening Tenure and Resource Rights (STARR) IQC No. AID-OAA-I-12-00030. Implemented by: The Cloudburst Group 8400 Corporate Drive, Suite 550 Landover, MD 20785-2238 Impact Evaluation of the Land Administration to Nurture Development Project in Afar, Ethiopia Report on Baseline Findings MARCH 2017 DISCLAIMER The authors' views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. CONTENTS CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................... I ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................. III EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................. 1 1.0 EVALUATION PURPOSE & QUESTIONS ......................................................................... 5 EVALUATION PURPOSE ................................................................................................................................ 5 EVALUATION QUESTIONS........................................................................................................................... 5 DATA SOURCES ............................................................................................................................................... 7 PROJECT BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................. 7 THE AFAR REGION .......................................................................................................................................... 8 OVERVIEW OF LAND ................................................................................................................................... 10 2.0 EVALUATION METHODS & LIMITATIONS ................................................................... 13 METHODS ......................................................................................................................................................... 13 SAMPLING METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................... 14 BASELINE DATA COLLECTION ................................................................................................................ 17 CHALLENGES ENCOUNTERED ................................................................................................................ 18 SAMPLE CHARACTERISTICS ....................................................................................................................... 21 3.0 FINDINGS—GRAZING AREA CONDITION .................................................................... 28 USE OF GRAZING AREAS IN THE WET SEASON ............................................................................... 28 USE OF GRAZING AREAS IN THE DRY SEASON ............................................................................... 30 MIGRATION ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 CHANGES IN CONDITIONS OF GRAZING LAND ........................................................................... 35 4.0 FINDINGS—TENURE SECURITY & ACCESS ................................................................. 42 TENURE SECURITY—GRAZING AREAS................................................................................................. 42 RESTRICTIONS IN GRAZING AREA ACCESS ....................................................................................... 47 TENURE SECURITY—WATER POINTS ................................................................................................... 48 AGRICULTURE AND TENURE SECURITY ............................................................................................. 49 5.0 FINDINGS—GOVERNANCE .............................................................................................. 51 SATISFACTION WITH CUSTOMARY LEADERS .................................................................................. 51 MEETINGS ......................................................................................................................................................... 54 RULES .................................................................................................................................................................. 55 RULE ENFORCEMENT .................................................................................................................................. 56 CONFLICT ........................................................................................................................................................ 58 INVESTORS ....................................................................................................................................................... 60 POSITIVE IMPACTS ......................................................................................................................................... 62 NEGATIVE IMPACTS ...................................................................................................................................... 63 6.0 SUMMARY OF GENDER SPECIFIC FINDINGS ............................................................... 64 GRAZING AREA ACCESS ............................................................................................................................ 64 WATER ACCESS .............................................................................................................................................. 65 TENURE SECURITY ........................................................................................................................................ 66 GOVERNANCE AND DECISION MAKING ........................................................................................... 67 HOUSEHOLD DECISION MAKING REGARDING EXPENDITURES .............................................. 68 INHERITANCE ................................................................................................................................................. 68 7.0 BALANCE & POWER .......................................................................................................... 70 METHODS FOR ASSESSING BALANCE ................................................................................................... 70 POWER ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................................................... 81 ANNEX I—LAND AFAR IE DESIGN REPORT ....................................................................... 88 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................. 89 ACRONYMS BDS-CDR BDS-Center for Development Research CLGE Community Landholding and Governance Entity DD Difference-in-Difference ERC Evaluation, Research, Communication FGD Focus Group Discussions GoE Government of Ethiopia ICC Intra-Class Correlation IE Impact Evaluation IRB Institutional Review Board KII Key Informant Interview LAND Land Administration to Nurture Development MDES Minimum Detectable Effect Size NGO Non-Government Organization PA Pastoralist Association PPS Probability Proportionate to Size PRIME Pastoralist Areas Resilience Improvement and Market Expansion PSNP Productive Safety Net Program RCT Randomized Control Trial STARR Strengthening Tenure and Resource Rights SD Standard Deviation USAID U.S. Agency for International Development EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Baseline Report analyzes baseline data from an impact evaluation (IE) of USAID/Ethiopia’s Land Administration to Nurture Development Project (LAND, 2013–2018) in the Afar region of Ethiopia. The baseline survey analysis has two primary objectives: 1) to improve understanding of the project context in the evaluation area, especially variation across Chifra and Amibara woredas1; and 2) to provide an exploratory assessment of baseline differences across the IE comparison (intervention) groups that will be used to measure LAND’s impacts. LAND is designed to improve the security of land use rights to promote investment and development among land users and reduce inappropriate expropriations. Based on Ethiopian constitutional provisions, and a regional government commitment to recognize pastoralist land use rights, the LAND Project is undertaking a focused community land use rights formalization process. The LAND Afar IE seeks to assess the outcomes and impacts of interventions that fall under Component 4