CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER CONFLICTS AND HUMAN SECURITY: REGIONAL ASSESSMENT AND POLICY GUIDELINES FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST AND SAHEL UNU-EHS Institute for Environment and Human Security JULIA KLOOS, NIKLAS GEBERT, THERESE ROSENFELD & FABRICE RENAUD No. 10 | August 2013 CLIMATE CHANGE, HYDRO CONFLICTS AND HUMAN SECURITY (CLICO) Project partners: Institute of Environmental Science & Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Spain Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia (UEA), UK Ecologic Institute, Germany Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW) and International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), Norway Department of Geography, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HUJ), Israel Suez Canal University (SCU), Egypt Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich (ETHZ), Switzerland The Cyprus Institute (CyI), Cyprus School of Global Studies, University of Sussex (UOS), UK United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Germany Palestinian Hydrology Group For Water And Environmental Resources Development (PHG), Palestinian Administered Areas Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Spain Israeli-Palestinian Science Organization (IPSO), Belgium, Palestinian administered Areas and Israel Addis Ababa University (AAU), Ethiopia The project is funded by Cover photo: Youssouf Wadine, a retired government officer originally from Tchintabaraden, Niger, served as the key research assistant in the Niger case study. Location: Seasonal lake near Ango Lelli, Konni, Niger. _ 2 Report: Climate Change, Human Security and Hydro-conflict Report No. 10 | August 2013 UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND HUMAN SECURITY (UNU-EHS) REPORT No. 10 August 2013 Report No. 10 | August 2013 Report: Climate Change, Human Security and Hydro-conflict _ 3 _ 4 Report: Climate Change, Human Security and Hydro-conflict Report No. 10 | August 2013 Climate Change, Water Conflicts and Human Security: Regional Assessment and Policy Guidelines for the Mediterranean, Middle East And Sahel Coordinating Authors: Julia Kloos (UNU-EHS), Niklas Gebert (UNU-EHS), Therese Rosenfeld (UNU-EHS), Fabrice Renaud (UNU-EHS) Contributing Authors: Abdul Malak, Dania (CREAF), Abu Jamous, Sireen (PHG), Adger, Neil (UEA), Albizua, Amaia (ICTA, UAB), Arsano, Yacob (PSIR, AAU), Bar-On, Haran (Ecologic Institute), Berglund, Maria (Ecologic Institute), Bernauer, Thomas (ETHZ), Böhmelt, Tobias (ETHZ), Bruggeman, Adriana (CyI), Bunclark, Lisa (UEA), Buhaug, Halvard (CSCW, PRIO), Calvo Boyero, Diana (ICTA, UAB), Charalambous, Katerina (CyI), Conway, Declan (UEA), D’Alisa, Giacomo (ICTA, UAB), De Bruyne, Charlotte (HUJ), Djuma, Hakan (CyI), Drieschova, Alena (HUJ), Fischhendler, Itay (HUJ), Fons-Esteve, Jaume (CREAF), Gerstetter, Christiane (Ecologic Institute), Gleditsch, Nils Petter (CSCW, PRIO), Goulden, Marisa (UEA), Graininger, Sam (UEA), Hadjinicolaou, Panos (CyI), Hoffmann, Clemens (UOS), Kallis, Giorgos (ICTA, UAB), Kampa, Eleftheria (Ecologic Institute), Katz, David (HUJ), Lange, Manfred A. (CyI), Lelieveld, Jos (CyI), McGlade, Katriona (Ecologic Institute), Meyer‐ Ohlendorf, Nils (Ecologic Institute), Milman, Anita (UEA), Pascual Sánchez, Diana (CREAF), Pashiardis, Stelios (Cyprus Meteorological Service), Pla Ferrer Eduard (CREAF), Porter, Kate (UEA), Selby, Jan (UOS), Smith, Lucy (Ecologic Institute), Snorek, Julie (UNU-EHS), Tamimi, Abdelrahman (PHG), Tawfic Ahmed, Mohamed (Suez Canal University), Tedsen, Elizabeth (Ecologic Institute), Tribaldos, Theresa (ETHZ), Turhan, Ethemcan (ICTA, UAB), Vidaurre, Rodrigo (Ecologic Institute), Weibust, Eivind Berg (CSCW, PRIO), Wirkus, Lars (BICC), Wischnath, Gerdis (CSCW, PRIO), Zografos, Christos (ICTA, UAB) Supporting Team: Daniel Brink, (UNU-EHS), Hannes Etter, (UNU-EHS), Philip Schäfer (UNU-EHS) Report No. 10 | August 2013 Report: Climate Change, Human Security and Hydro-conflict _ 5 “Through its final synthesis report, the CLICO team offers the opportunity to better understand the water/conflict/security nexus and to contribute to build bridges between two neighbouring regions, the European Union and the MMES” Perla Srour-Gandon Research Programme Officer European Commission DG Research & Innovation "This work brings new detail and nuance to our understanding of transboundary water conflict and cooperation, and significantly raises the level of discussion on this critical topic." Aaron Wolf Professor of Geography Oregon State University "Based on a systematic, integrated analysis of the socio- hydrological impacts of climate change, CLICO has provided an authoritative account of human security under environmental stress. The project’s findings will be a necessary reference point for all scientists investigating climate and water-related risks to human development, and should make policy-makers wary of simplistic statements on climate change and security." Dr. Michael Mason Senior Lecturer in Environmental Geography Department of Geography and the Environment London School of Economics and Political Science _ 6 Report: Climate Change, Human Security and Hydro-conflict Report No. 10 | August 2013 Summary Climate change has and will continue to have far-reaching has evolved that connects climate change, water conflicts and impacts on environmental, social and economic conditions, human security. However, this complexity has made it difficult for which people and governments will be forced to adapt to. researchers to measure the effect of climate change on conflict Increasingly, climate change and the associated increase in and human security. the frequency of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and rising sea level is recognized as not only having This report presents a comprehensive regional assessment of humanitarian impacts, but also creating political and security risks these questions in the CLICO study area – the Mediterranean, that can affect national/regional stability and the welfare Middle East, and Sahel – in terms of climate change impacts, of people. vulnerabilities, conflict/cooperation and human security at vari- ous scales and in a variety of contexts. The Mediterranean, Mid- This has led to increased political interest in the influence of dle East and Sahel were selected because they are regions that climate change on water availability and human security. Specifi- are prone to extreme weather events, such as frequent droughts cally, whether climatic and hydrological changes and increas- or floods, which are likely to be triggered by climate change and ing variabilities trigger and multiply conflict at various scales or existing conflicts or tensions taking place at various intensities induce cooperation between and within countries and how this and scales. An improved understanding of the climate-water- affects human security remains contested. security-nexus is therefore key to describing and assessing the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity to climate change related There is a growing consensus in the climate change and con- hazards. flict literature that climate change can be considered a threat multiplier for existing tensions. Besides climatic factors there are The CLICO project builds on interdisciplinary and cross- underlying causes such as poverty, weak institutions, mistrust, comparative research covering a variety of geographical scales inequalities and lack of information and basic infrastructure that and historical contexts to unravel social, political, environmental/ may also contribute to these tensions. In comparison, functional ecological and economic conditions in relation to the environ- and well-adapted institutions can facilitate cooperation and ment. conflict resolution and are therefore considered as threat mini- mizers that help to maintain human security. Results of the various approaches (in-depth case studies, large N statistical analyses, assessments of transboundary adaptive Climate change may impact directly or indirectly on any of the capacities and transactions costs and policy analysis related to dimensions of human security. People and governments can climate change adaptation) confirm observations that climate adapt to these impacts, but their capacity to do so varies; it is and hydrological factors, socio-economic, institutional and dependent on a multitude of factors such as access to assets, political conditions are all important drivers of human (in) knowledge, institutions, power relations, etc. Due to the com- security, but their relative importance depends on the specific plexities within the natural system and its interlinkages to the context in which they interact. Adaptation plays a key role in social, economic and political spheres, a highly complex nexus determining whether climate change is likely to undermine Report No. 10 | August 2013 Report: Climate Change, Human Security and Hydro-conflict _ 7 human security. Adaptive capacity of individuals, groups or na- CLICO research points toward stronger links between political, tions varies depending, for instance, on existing institutions and economic and social factors and water-related conflict their functionality, knowledge and access to assets. Adaptation than between climate-related variables and water conflict. processes – either undertaken by individuals/groups or governed However, in the future these relationships might change. and led by the State – can both reduce and increase insecurities. In this context, concepts such as “divergent adaptation” have Uncertainty arising from environmental