Adaptation to Climate Change in EIA in Serbia Mićun Stanić, Dept. of Environmental Impact Assessment THE APPROACH the workshop on adaptation to climate change in transboundary basins (Geneve 10-12 May 2010) was → for a 70-100 year period → possible flood and drought scenarios → from simple to very sophisticated climatology modeling my presentation was quite different → for a 20-30 year period → concerning possible drought → simple linear trend scenarios Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning THE APPROACH the presentation was well accepted everybody in the room believed in climate change the complete opposite attitude I am used to the experts that make the EIAs are all believers in no change whatsoever Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning THE FLAT they are engineers trained to this you do by procedure 1...2.....3.. so if you approach them with possible change of elements of design due to possible climate change in the future they will question your sound judgment try to ignore this completely Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning THE FLAT this can be quite expected due to required EXTRA effort this cannot be copy-pasted even the add-trendline seems to be complicated when you finally ask if it could influence the project “It will have no influence whatsoever” an engineer doesn’t work in the future it is the FLAT approach Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning FLAT 12,0 11,5 11,0 10,5 10,0 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CHANGE 12,0 11,5 11,0 10,5 10,0 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning THE CHANGE the classic engineer would use T=9,7ºC the up to date engineer would use T=10,7ºC they are not the only ones thinking flat – no change my college working in the Hydrometeorological Institute she works every day with water flows → year 2002 was the severest winter since 1965 → year 2008 was a 100 year flood Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning THE CHANGE does the climate change have any arguments → year 2003 severest drought since 1950 → year 2007 severest temperature highs ever who should you believe even if you asked me Mr. Stanic would you plant a lemon tree “Are you serious” Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning LINEAR FORECAST OF ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE RISE FOR 10 YEARS – DESIGN PERIOD 20 YEARS 13 y = 0,0672x - 123,12 12 11 y = 0,0424x - 74,855 10 9 y = 0,0497x - 91,441 8 7 6 5 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning THE BIG QUESTION WILL IT HAVE IMPACT ON YOUR PROJECT you may ask directly the best place for climate change impact assessment would be in the optimization part or for different variations You will get the same answer Æ it will have no effect whatsoever Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning A Reservoir on the Rzav River water flows used for the period 1947-1995 they did not like the trend so → they used the period 1947-1986 because there is no upward trend following so they chose the trend that seems to agree with them In this way they admitted that something is wrong with the data Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning WATER FLOWS 1947-1995 data series from m3/sec 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 WATER FLOWS 1947-1986 proposed trend m3/sec 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 WATER FLOWS 1980-1995 period of suspected climate change impact m3/sec 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning RAIN 1980-2008 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 TEMPERATURE 1980-2008 11,0 10,5 10,0 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 WATER FLOWS 1980-1995 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning A Reservoir on the Rzav River if focus on the climate change period → there are significant trends in temperatures and water flows → they have an impact – no water, big dam → would be a crime to the environment however, certain error in the data series → probably there is a downward trend in water flows Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning A Reservoir on the Rzav River so if there is water in the reservoir how would it affect the environment in the negative sense → for the same consumption and less water, first thing that is cut is the biological minimum → all the negative effects in the reservoir such as eutrophication are increased if you have an increased consumption which may be expected with temp. rise you would have double trouble Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning A Reservoir on the Rzav River we did not mention the evaporation from the lake surface - it was not calculated so if you do not use trends of climate change → everything is perfect – you have enough water → IT WILL NOT HAPPEN What if they would have to stop the project and reconsider ++ Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning A Reservoir on the Rzav River WATER FLOWS 1947-1995 data series from m3/sec 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 the classic engineer would use Q= 6,25 m3/sec 18% the up to date engineer would use Q= 5,30 m3/sec + the increase in evaporation due to rise in Temperature (+ the increase in demand due to rise in Temperature) + Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning B The Sava-Danube Navigation Canal Republic of Croatia notified Republic of Serbia that it has completed the design of The Danube-Sava Waterway Canal (Espoo Convention) we, the Serbian side agreed to take part in the EIA process the Assessment was forwarded to Serbia and an evaluation was made Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning B The Sava-Danube Navigation Canal it is completely on Croat territory an interesting feature in the Assessment is that it showed that water flows have decreasing trends however further investigation was abandoned at first it seemed that an investigation may not be necessary, due to the fact that it was already agreed that there will be no abstraction of water below 235 m3/sec on the Sava river (biologic minimum) Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning B The Sava-Danube Navigation Canal later it was agreed that changes in river flows in the future may be expected, hinting it will probably be in loss of water we (Serbian side) pointed out that during extreme low flows the whole ecosystem is endangered: example of the Tisa river in 2003 when we had an emergency situation occured Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning B The Sava-Danube Navigation Canal it was agreed to further investigate the trends and if they should be persistent, that is dropping, get together and make a plan to mitigate this. Water flows at Zageb 1920-1995 Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning B The Sava-Danube Navigation Canal 3000 Time series of mean and mimimum values of discharges for Sremska Mitrovica - 1984-2008 for the dry peroid (april- august) with linear trends 2500 2000 y = -7,4002x + 1495,3 1500 1000 y = -0,4192x + 412,73 500 0 Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning Steps to be taken during an environmental impact assessment →Raise Awareness →Adapt the Project Design →Include Extra Measures Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning Raise Awareness Usually, the part of an Assessment on Climate is elaborated superficially with old data. The period used is almost always from 1960-1990. 1st step: get a new period of data from the year 1980 to as close as possible to 2010 Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning Raise Awareness People are usually unaware of existing trends in temperatures and other climate data. They should draw the trend to be aware that it is happening in their own back yard. 2nd step: always get a trend of the temperaturem5 data Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning Slide 25 m5 ? mayer_s, 09/11/2010 Adapt the Project Design In every Assessment the usual statement on the mutual influence of climate-project is: There is no interaction!! 3rd step: evaluate the influence of future climate change on the project: Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning Adapt the Project Design →for the design period of the project (usually 2025-2030) →calculate the trend in question and check if there is possible influence Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning Include Extra Measures 4th step: use parts of the project in question or other sources nearby to mitigate impacts of climate change Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning.