TO: INITIAL DATE prepare reply comment & advice_______ see me________ approval_________________ as requested investigate_____________ as promised note & return P. C.__________ first name______________ file reply for signature of REMARKS: FROM: DATE: March 10, 1969 AGENDA: Maryland Campaign Planning Meeting I. Opening remarks by Chairman Harris II. Assessment by Senator Tydings of 1970 Election prospects III. Discussion of projects and programs that need to be undertaken now for 1970 race IV. Steps that need to be taken to provide for the most effective and coordinated cam- paign in Maryland -- involvement of the party, Governor, Congressional campaigns March 10, 1969 Invited to Maryland Campaign Planning Meeting: Sen. Joseph Tydings Ken Gray AA to Senator Tydings Sen. Daniel Inouye, Chairman Senate Democratic Campaign Committee Nordy Hoffman Senate Democratic Campaign Committee Cong. Ed Edmondson House Campaign Committee Ken Harding House Campaign Committee Al Barkan & Mary Zon COPE William Dodds UAW Frank McGrath COPE Area Director Charles Della, Pres. State AFL-CIO Culver Windsor COPE Director Andy Lewis J. C. Turner, Pres. DC-Md. Central Labor Union Martin Bond DC-Md. Central Labor Union COPE -2- Nick Fornaro, Pres. Baltimore Central Labor Union Thomas Moran James O'Brien United Steel Workers Evelyn Dubrow Garment Workers Bill DuChessi Textile Workers Democratic National Committee: Geri Joseph Bill Welsh Vick French • George Bristol Al Spivak WASHINGTON, WYOMING, McGEE, SOUTH DAKOTA, MISSOURI, ICHORD, ILLINOIS, DAWSON, KENTUCKY, PERKINS, WEST VIRGINIA, PENNSYLVANIA, NEW YORK, CELLER, MAGNUSON, Senate Senate Post Office and McGOVERN, Senate House Internal Security House Committee on House Education and RANDOLPH, Senate Pub- MORGAN, House Foreign House Judiciary Commerce Committee, Civil Service Committee, Select Committee on Committee, Houston, Government Operations, Labor Committee, lic Works Committee, Affairs Committee, Committee, Brooklyn, Seattle, Wash.: 557,087 Laramie, Wyo.: 17,520 Nutrition and Human Mo.: 1,660 pop. Mo.: Chicago, III.: 3,550,404 Hindman, Ky.: Under Elkins, W.Va.: 8,307 Fredericktown, Pa.: N.Y.: 2,627,319 pop. pop. Wash.: 2,853,214 pop. Wyo.: 330,066 pop. Needs, Mitchell, S.O.: 4,319,813 pop. pop. III.: 10,081,158 2,500 pop. Ky.: pop. W.Va.: 1,860,421 Under 2,500 pop. N.Y.: 16,782,304 pop.; JACKSON, Senate 12,555 pop. S.D.: pop.; PRICE, House 3,038,156 pop. pop.; STAGGERS, House Pa.: 11,319,366 pop. pop.; DULSKI, House Interior and Insular 680,514 pop. Committee on Standards Interstate and Foreign Post Office and Civil Affairs Committee, V of Official Conduct, Commerce Committee, Service Committee, Everett, Wash.: East St. Louis, III.: Keyser, W.Va.: 7,041 Buffalo. N.Y.: 81,712 pop. 532,759 pop. 40,304 pop. States with Congressional ----------------------- Committee Chairmen, Red boxes are Senate chairmen, blue boxes are House chairmen, and states i cross-checks have NEVADA, BIBLE, Senate Select Small Business House and Senate chairmen Committee, Reno, Nev.: 51,470 pop., Nev.: ALASKA 285,278 pop. NEW JERSEY, WILLIAMS, Special Senate Committee on Aging, Westfield, CALIFORNIA, MILLER, N.J.: 31,447 pop. House Committee on N.J.: 6,066,782 pop. Science and Astronau- tics, Alameda, Calif.: 63,855 pop. Calif.: 15,717,204 pop.; HOLIFIELD, Joint Atomic Energy Committee, Montebello, Calif.: 40,613 pop. MARYLAND, TYDINGS, Senate Committee on District of Columbia, Havre de COLORADO, ASPINALL, Grace, Md.: 8,510 pop. Md.: 3,100,689 House Committee on pop.; FRIEDEL, House Administration Interior and Insular Committee, Baltimore, Md.: 939,024 Affairs, Palisade, Colo.: pop.; GARMATZ, House Merchant Marine Under 2,500 pop. Colo.: and Fisheries Committee, Baltimore, 1,753,947 pop. Md.: 939,024 pop.; FALLON, House Public Works Committee, Baltimore, Md.: 939,024 pop. NEW MEXICO, ANDERSON, Senate Aeronautical and Space The population figures shown are based on the Sciences Committee, Albuquerque, N.M.: 1960 census. The town or city listed below 201,189 pop. N.M.: each chairman's name is his hometown. When 951,023 pop. there is more than one chairman from a state, the state's population is listed only once— under the first chairman's name. TEXAS, YARBOROUGH, Senate Labor and Public Welfare Committee, The map of the United States is distorted to reflect the Austin, Tex.: 186,545 size of the states in terms of pop. Tex.: 9,579,677 population based on the pop.; POAGE, House 1960 census. Agriculture Committee, ARKANSAS, FULBRIGHT, Waco, Tex.: 97,808 pop.; Senate Foreign Relations MISSISSIPPI, STENNIS, MAHON, House Appro- Committee, Fayette- Senate Armed Services priations Committee, ville, Ark.: 26,279 pop. Committee, De Kalb, SOUTH CAROLINA, Lubbock, Tex.: 128,691 Ark.: 1,786,272 pop.; Miss.: Under 2,500 pop. RIVERS, House Armed pop.; PATMAN, House McCLELLAN, Senate LOUISIANA, ELLENDER, Miss.: 2,178,141 pop.; Services Committee, Banking and Currency Government Operations Senate Committee on EASTLAND, Senate Judi- Charleston, S.C.: NORTH CAROLINA, Committee, Texarkana, Committee, Camden, Agriculture, Houma, La.: ciary Committee, Dodds- 75.940 pop. S.C.: TENNESSEE, EVINS, JORDAN, Senate Rules Tex.: 30,218 pop.; Ark.: 14,604 pop.; 4,665 pop. La.: ville, Miss.: Under 2,500 ALABAMA, SPARKMAN, GEORGIA, RUSSELL, 2,382.594 pop.; House Select Com- and Administration TEAGUE, House Com- MILLS, House Ways and 3,257,022 pop.; LONG, pop.; COLMER, House Senate Banking and Senate Appropriations McMILLAN. House Com- mittee on Small Committee, Saxa- mittee on Veterans’ Means Committee, Senate Finance Com- Rules Committee, Currency Committee, Committee, Winder, Ca.: mittee on the District Business, Smithville, pahaw, N.C.: Under Affairs, College Station, Kensett, Ark.: Under mittee, Shreveport, La.: Pascagoula, Miss.: Huntsville, Ala.: 123,519 5,555 pop. Ga.: of Columbia, Florence, Tenn.: 2,348 pop. 2,500 pop. N.C.: pop. Ala.: 3,266,740 pop- 3,943,116 pop. Tex.: 11,396 pop. 2,500 pop. 160,535 pop. 17,155 pop. S.C.; 24,722 pop. Tenn.: 3,567,089 pop. 4,556,155 pop. ANALYSIS OF KEY SENATORIAL CONTESTS The. 1970 Senatorial elections provide the Democrats with the strongest challenge to their control of the Senate since 1954. A net gain of seven Senatorial seats would provide the Republicans with majority leadership of the Senate- According to the Republican National Committee documents which we have seen, there are twelve Senatorial seats which the Republicans are aiming to capture- These seats are in the following states: Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, ' "North Dakota, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming- Using this information, I thought it would be significant to see how much things have changed over the last six years in these twelve states. Generally, we all know much that has happened since the 1964 elections in political terms, but in terms of population characteristics as well as specific voting behavior patterns, these twelve states present a formidable challenge for the Democrats to control. In a majority of these twelve states, the suburban population has grown by at least 25 per cent and in some cases up to 50 per cent. For the first time in our nation’s history, more people live in the suburbs than in the central city. These voters who are generally homeowners dependent on an income shrunk by inflation, have a new set of values which differ from those that they had as the big-city dwellers. They are divorced from the center city political organizations and tend to have a more Independent-Republican orientation. ....... The median family income is now around $9,300. One third of the voters in these twelve states have personal disposable income in excess of $10,000. For this -2- reason, these people will tend to look at liberal Democrats as spenders. If the incumbent Senators are unable to put the blame for inflation and taxes on the Republican Administration, they will find a skeptical electorate., In 1968, law and order was the second biggest issue., In 1970, law and order appears to remain a major issue confronting all candidates. With the exceptions of Wyoming, Tennessee, North Dakota, and Indiana, the total crime index in the remaining eight G. O. P. target states is high. This fact puts another obstacle in the way of the Democratic incumbents who are certain to be targets of Republican criticism. According to the Gallup Poll, party affiliation in the past five years has become decidedly more Independent and less Democratic, Dem. Rep. Ind. 1964 53 25 22 ! 1969 42 28 30 In these twelve states there are large numbers of Democrats becoming Independents, The traditional appeals to vote Democratic will not be sufficient in 1970. -3- Politically, the following things have happened in these twelve states over the last decade: PRESIDENTIAL: Nation 12 GOP Target States Kennedy 1960 50. 1 52. 1 Johnson 1964 61.0 60.8 Humphrey 1968 42.7 39.9 Wallace 1968 13.5 15.5 In 1960, President Kennedy ran a far stronger race in these states than he did nationwide. Four years later, President Johnson carried all twelve states nearly matching his national popular vote of 61 per cent. In the 1968 Presidential election, Vice President Humphrey won only two of the twelve states, and received almost 3 per cent less than he did nationally. In the first eight years of the sixties, the Democratic Presidential standard-bearer has dropped a total of 5 per cent from his position relative to his national standing. CONGRESSIONAL: Total Congressional Seats-12 GOP Target States Democrats Republicans 1964 76 29 1968 59 49 Net Change -17 +20 With the exception of Tennessee and Nevada, the remaining ten states have experienced a loss in Democratic Congressional representation. In 1964, the Democrats had five Congressmen for -4- every two Republicans in the target states; today the margin has shrunk to six Democrats to five Republicans. This is another indication of eroding Democratic strength in the key states.