NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS EXPLAINING THE SUCCESS OF THE NEPAL COMMUNIST PARTY-MAOIST (NCP-M) IN NEPAL: A COMPARISON OF MAOIST INSURGENCIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY by Shantosh B. Poudyal December 2010 Thesis Co-Advisors: Michael Malley Anshu Chatterjee Approved for public release, distribution in unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2010 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Explaining the Success of Nepal Communist Party- 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Maoist (NCP-M): A Comparison of Maoist Insurgencies in the 21st Century 6. AUTHOR(S) Shantosh B. Poudyal 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ________________. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) The dramatic rise and relative political success of the Nepal Communist Party-Maoist (NCP-M), calls into question the conventional explanations for the success or failure of violent Maoist insurgencies in the current global environment. The Nepalese insurgency ended in relative triumph through a negotiated political settlement that co- opted its major demands. Furthermore, the Maoists scored an impressive electoral victory that marked the beginning of a process of complete transformation of the traditional sociopolitical structure of Nepal. By comparing the failed Maoist insurgencies of the Shining Path of Peru and the Communist Party of the Philippines and the New People’s Army (CPP/NPA) with the NCP-M, this thesis offers an alternative explanation that links the nature of approach taken by a Maoist insurgency to the outcome. The thesis argues that, in order to succeed, an insurgency must first shed the ideological dogma and its emphasis on violent means because of the limits and constraints in executing classic Maoist people’s war in the twenty-first century. Instead, they should focus on exploiting political opportunities created by initial military gains while popular support remains high. This thesis also highlights the benefits of employing political negotiations and foreign mediation as a genuine means for achieving both political change and sustainable peace. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Maoist insurgency, Nepal Communist Party-Maoist, the Shining 15. NUMBER OF Path, the Communist Party of Philippines, people’s war, constraints, approach, negotiation, PAGES accommodation, conflict termination, change, peace 115 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited EXPLAINING THE SUCCESS OF THE NEPAL COMMUNIST PARTY- MAOIST (NCP-M) : A COMPARISON OF THE MAOIST INSURGENCIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY Shantosh B. Poudyal Lieutenant Colonel, Nepalese Army B.A., Tribhuban University, 2004 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (COUNTER TERRORISM: POLICY AND STRATEGY) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2010 Author: Shantosh B. Poudyal Approved by: Michael Malley Thesis Co-Advisor Anshu Chatterjee Thesis Co-Advisor Harold A. Trinkunas, PhD Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT The dramatic rise and relative political success of the Nepal Communist Party-Maoist (NCP-M), calls into question the conventional explanations for the success or failure of violent Maoist insurgencies in the current global environment. The Nepalese insurgency ended in relative triumph through a negotiated political settlement that co-opted its major demands. Furthermore, the Maoists scored an impressive electoral victory that marked the beginning of a process of complete transformation of the traditional sociopolitical structure of Nepal. By comparing the failed Maoist insurgencies of the Shining Path of Peru and the Communist Party of the Philippines and the New People’s Army (CPP/NPA) with the NCP-M, this thesis offers an alternative explanation that links the nature of approach taken by a Maoist insurgency to the outcome. The thesis argues that, in order to succeed, an insurgency must first shed the ideological dogma and its emphasis on violent means because of the limits and constraints in executing classic Maoist people’s war in the twenty-first century. Instead, they should focus on exploiting political opportunities created by initial military gains while popular support remains high. This thesis also highlights the benefits of employing political negotiations and foreign mediation as a genuine means for achieving both political change and sustainable peace. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. THESIS PROPOSAL ..................................................................................................1 A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION................................................................1 B. IMPORTANCE................................................................................................3 C. PROBLEMS AND HYPOTHESES ...............................................................5 D. LITERATURE REVIEW ...............................................................................7 E. METHODS AND SOURCES........................................................................12 F. THESIS OVERVIEW ...................................................................................13 II. THE SHINING PATH (SENDERO LUMINOSO) OF PERU..............................15 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................15 B. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................16 C. GRIEVANCES THAT LED TO THE INSURGENCY .............................18 D. IDEOLOGY AND POLITICAL OBJECTIVES ........................................20 E. POPULAR SUPPORT...................................................................................24 F. LEADERSHIP AND ORGANIZATION.....................................................25 G. EXTERNAL AND FINANCIAL SUPPORT ..............................................27 H. ANALYSIS OF THE OVERALL APPROACH.........................................28 I. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................33 III. THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE PHILIPPINES (CPP/NPA) ....................37 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................37 B. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................38 C. GRIEVANCES LEADING TO THE INSURGENCY ...............................40 D. IDEOLOGY....................................................................................................42 E. THE BEGINNING OF THE DECLINE .....................................................44 F. POLITICAL OBJECTIVES.........................................................................47 G. POPULAR SUPPORT...................................................................................48 H. FINANCIAL SUPPORT ...............................................................................51 I. LEADERSHIP ...............................................................................................52 J. NEGOTIATIONS ..........................................................................................54 K. ANALYSIS OF THE OVERALL APPROACH AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................56 IV. THE NEPAL COMMUNIST PARTY-MAOIST (NCP-M) ..................................61 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................61 B. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................62 C. GRIEVANCES LEADING TO THE INSURGENCY ...............................66 D. IDEOLOGY....................................................................................................69 E. SHIFTS IN IDEOLOGY...............................................................................71