CEE/CISAn Overview of Trends in Select Sectors and Markets March 2009 Region Snapshot rivate equity investors face numerous and diverse challenges in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) includes: Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Indepen- Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina dent States (CIS) regions in the current economic climate. Once thought P Bulgaria immune to regional woes, the 10 CEE countries which acceded to the Eu- Croatia ropean Union (EU) in 2004 and 2007 are encountering domestic fiscal and Czech Republic economic problems, and worries about regional systemic risk are mounting. Estonia Hungary Among EU countries, Hungary and Latvia are struggling most. Despite a com- Latvia Lithuania bined US$35 billion in bailout funds from the IMF, GDP is expected to fall by 3% Montenegro in Hungary in 2009, and 12% in Latvia. In the CIS, growing worries about politi- Poland cal risk are compounding economic concerns. Russia’s August invasion of Geor- Republic of Macedonia gia accelerated investor fears, as have tensions surrounding the Anglo-Russian Romania oil joint venture TNK-BP Holding. Fallen energy prices threaten the economic sta- Serbia bility of the oil-centric economies of the CIS. Ukraine’s attempts to prop up its Slovakia Slovenia currency have failed, and the second tranche of a US$16.4 billion IMF bailout Turkey remains in question. Further, the ongoing power struggle between Prime Minis- The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) ter Yulia Tymoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko have heightened worries includes: about Ukraine’s political stability. The IMF projects slight contractions in growth Armenia for both the CEE and CIS sub-regions in 2009, representing a significant slow- Azerbaijan down from growth rates of 5.4% and 8.6% growth, respectively, just two years prior. Belarus Georgia The impact is most readily apparent in the fundraising environment. After holding Kazakhstan steady in 2008, fundraising came to an abrupt halt in the beginning of 2009, with no Kyrgyzstan Moldova known fund closes taking place in the first quarter. The 2009 EMPEA/Coller Capital Russia Emerging Markets Private Equity Survey reveals that both CEE and the CIS have lost Tajikistan some degree of favor with institutional investors. Surveyed LPs selected Russia/CIS Turkmenistan continued on page 2 Ukraine World Economic Outlook Projections, GDP (% change) Uzbekistan (Markets in bold indicate core markets attracting the majority of private equity investment to date) Region 2007 2008 2009* 2010* World Output 5.2 3.4 0.5 3.0 Advanced Economies 2.7 1.0 -2.0 1.1 Emerging and Developing Economies 8.3 6.3 3.3 5.0 CEE 5.4 3.2 -0.4 2.5 CIS 8.6 6.0 -0.4 2.2 Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), January 28, 2009. *Projections. © 2009 Emerging Markets Private Equity Association 1 EMPEA Insight: CEE/CIS March 2009 as the least attractive destination for investment in 2009, rep- CEE/CIS Fundraising and Invesment Totals Data resenting a shift from 2008 when LP respondents ranked the (2006 – 2008), US$m sub-region ahead of South Africa, the Middle East, and Latin 2005 2006 2007 2008 America (ex-Brazil). Likewise, the CEE region, ranked the sec- Fundraising 2,711 3,272 14,629 5,559 ond most attractive in previous surveys after Emerging Asia, CEE 1,457 3,050 12,759* 2,815 has been overtaken by Latin America, and Brazil in particular. CIS 1,254 222 1,870 2,744 Investment 842 4,903 8,345 6,785 The current investment climate is uncertain. Investment CEE 602 4,501 7,126 3,333 volume fell 67% from US$1.3 billion in the first quarter of CIS 240 402 1,219 3,452 2008 to US$437 million the first three months of 2009, cor- Source: EMPEA, European Venture Capital Association (EVCA), Deloitte. responding with a decrease in average deal size. An October *Outlier figure due to two large closes (Mid Europa US$2bn, Marfin US$7bn) 2008 Deloitte CEE Private Equity Confidence Survey showed that fund managers plan to shift their focus from fundrais- for CEE-focused funds, at US$2.7 billion versus US$2.8 bil- ing to portfolio management. Only 3% percent of surveyed lion for CEE. Fund managers raised US$3.1 billion in the sec- Central European private equity professionals plan to focus ond half of 2008. on raising new funds, compared to 55% who will focus on Advent International ushered in 2008 with the closing of portfolio management. Even though firms with “dry powder” its oversubscribed fourth fund, Advent Central & Eastern are uniquely capable of backing companies without access Europe IV, at US$1.6 billion. Demonstrating the maturity of to financing from local capital markets (assuming they could the region’s private equity market, several follow-on funds succesfully call on that capital), macroeconomic uncertain- held closes in the region throughout 2008: Arx Central and ties and a difificult exit environment will mean the region will Eastern Europe III, Innova Capital V, Mezzanine Management remain challenging in the near term. Central Europe’s Accession Mezzanine Capital II, Troika Capi- tal Partners Growth Fund III, and Horizon Capital’s Emerging Fundraising Trends Europe Growth Fund II. Fundraising for the CEE/CIS region held strong in 2008. The continued on page 3 US$5.6 billion raised was 70% greater than the total raised in 2006. Fundraising in 2008 did not surpass the US$14.6 bil- EMPEA Insight lion raised in 2007—two outlier closes totaling US$9.1 billion Editorial Director Jennifer Choi in that year account for the bulk of the difference. Capital [email protected] raised for CIS-focused funds nearly equaled the total raised Writing and Research Alexander Adrian / [email protected]; Harrison Moskowitz /[email protected], Holly Freedman / CEE/CIS Fundraising and Investment Totals [email protected] (2004-2008), US$ Billions Production Manager Cristiane Nascimento [email protected] 15 Advertising Opportunities Investment EMPEA Insight offers readers an overview of the data and drivers behind investment trends in emerging markets private equity. 12 Fundraising Each issue of EMPEA Insight provides an opportunity for a single exclusive back page advertisement. Issue-specific placements are 9 on a first come, first served basis. For a list of upcoming issues and US$ Billions more information about advertising opportunities and rates, contact 6 Cristiane Nascimento at [email protected]. About EMPEA 3 The Emerging Markets Private Equity Association is a broad-based membership organization founded in 2004 that focuses on the 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 emerging private equity markets of Africa, Asia, CEE, Russia/CIS, Latin America, and the Middle East. Source: EMPEA, Deloitte, European Venture Capital Association (EVCA). 2 © 2009 Emerging Markets Private Equity Association March 2009 EMPEA Insight: CEE/CIS The LP profile for CEE/CIS focused funds continues to diver- Some foreign firms with newly established offices in the -re sify. Commercial LPs now comprise a greater share of the gion are scaling back operations or withdrawing altogether. region’s LP base than development finance institutions and The Carlyle Group closed its Warsaw office in 2008 after only government agencies. As one of the largest and most active one year of operation. Three years prior, the firm closed its LPs in the region, the EBRD’s portfolio reflects this broader Moscow office citing Russia’s risk profile. Following write- trend. Among EBRD-backed CEE and CIS private equity funds downs, a 90% decline in share price over six months, and a in 2007, funds-of-funds accounted for the greatest share of subsequent reneging on a €1 billion pledge to its €3 billion committed capital of all LP types, surpassing commitments fund, London-based Candover reportedly told its CEE team by international financial institutions and governments. to raise its own fund or face closure after less than a year of operation. As commitments by commercial LPs to regional funds have slowed, development capital is returning to fill the void. In Despite the current economic climate, Nordic fund manag- the first quarter of 2009, fundraising news from the region ers continue to forge into the region. Swedish private eq- has been limited to commitments by DFIs to funds, with no uity firm EQT Partners opened a Warsaw office in late 2008. known closings having occurred. CDC Group recently commit- London-based Nordic investor IK Partners (formerly Industri ted US$10 million Kazakhstan-focused Centras Private Equi- Kapital) made its first foray into the region with a €100 mil- ty Fund. In January 2009, the EBRD committed €40 million lion (US$136m) purchase of Advent International’s stake in (US$55m) to 3TS CEE Fund III and €350 million (US$475m) Axtone, a Poland-based railway equipment company formed to Accession Mezzanine Capital III. As of March 2009, more through the integration of Polish and German companies. than 60 private equity and venture capital funds focused on Helsinki-listed Nordic private equity firm CapMan made two the region were in the market attempting to raise as much as investments in Russia—Region-Avia Airlines and Russia Bal- US$10.5 billion. tic Pork Invest—through its Capman Russia Fund, which it re- cently acquired from Norum Private Equity Advisors. Buyout funds accounted for 42% of total funds raised in 2008, at US$2.3 billion. Commitments to growth/expansion funds accounted for 21% of the total raised in 2008. A fledg- Investment Trends ling venture capital space has emerged, primarily in the CEE Private equity investment fell 19% from US$8.3 billion in 2007 sub-region, with two venture funds holding closes in 2008. to US$6.8 billion in 2008, with deals in Russia and Turkey ac- NEVEQ Capital Partners closed a US$40 million fund focused counting for over 70% of the total in 2008, due in part to a on venture investment in Bulgaria and Romania.