Monsanto & Genetic Engineering: Risks for Investors Report prepared by Innovest Strategic Value Advisors For Greenpeace Uncovering Hidden Value Potential for Strategic Investors April 2003 New York: (212) 421-2000 • London: +44 (0) 20 7743 6162 • Toronto: (905) 707-0876 • Paris: +33 (148) 860369 www.innovestgroup.com Report Prepared by Innovest Strategic Value Advisors Marc Brammer Senior Analyst 646-237-0217 [email protected] Frank Dixon, MBA (Media Contacts) Managing Director 646-237-0220 [email protected] Beth Ambrose Analyst +44-207-073-0475 [email protected] For Greenpeace Lindsay Keenan Genetic Engineering Campaigner + 49 30-3088-9916 [email protected] No part of this report may be reproduced in any manner without the written permission of Innovest Strategic Value Advisors, Inc. The information herein has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Innovest Strategic Value Advisors, Inc., its affiliated companies, or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees, may have a position in the securities discussed herein. The securities mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, nor suitable for all types of investors; their value and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates. © 2003 Innovest Strategic Value Advisors, Inc. All rights reserved. New York Office: Four Times Square, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036 USA (212) 421-2000 Fax (212) 421-9663 Toronto Office: 225 East Beaver Creek Road Suite 300, Richmond Hill Ontario L4B 3P4 CANADA (905) 707-0876 Fax (905) 707-9084 London Office: 4 Royal Mint Court, London, EC3N 4HJ ENGLAND +44 (0)20 7073 0470 Fax: +44 (0)20 7073 0473 Paris Office: 110 Boulevard de Sébastopol 75003 Paris FRANCE +33 (0)1 44 54 04 89 Fax: +33 (0)1 44 54 02 30 Website: www.innovestgroup.com Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................6 MARKET REJECTION............................................................................................................... 7 Foreign Market Rejection................................................................................................. 7 Domestic Market Rejection..............................................................................................8 ENVIRONMENTAL AND HUMAN HEALTH RISKS..................................................................8 Inevitable Environmental Contamination.......................................................................8 Human Health Risks..........................................................................................................9 Ethical Concerns.............................................................................................................. 10 STRATEGIC RISK.................................................................................................................... 10 ANOTHER BLACK EYE FOR THE FINANCIAL COMMUNITY?............................................... 11 2. MONSANTO STOCK PRICE PROJECTIONS...................................................................................13 3. GE CROP DEVELOPMENT & ADOPTION .................................................................................... 16 4. THE RISKS OF MONSANTO’S GE STRATEGY.............................................................................. 19 MARKETING AND GOALS .................................................................................................... 20 Affects of Roundup Competition ...................................................................................21 Genetically Engineered Wheat ...................................................................................... 22 Catastrophic Failure Risks............................................................................................... 24 5. GE RISKS AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR SHAREHOLDERS ........................................................29 MARKET RISKS...................................................................................................................... 29 Consumer Rejection and U.S. Public Opinion ............................................................... 29 Food Industry Rejection.................................................................................................. 33 REGULATORY RISKS ............................................................................................................. 36 Regional Regulatory Situation....................................................................................... 37 Labeling...........................................................................................................................38 The Biosafety Protocol.................................................................................................... 39 Politics and Genetically Engineered Foods ................................................................... 41 Insuring Genetically Engineered Crops ......................................................................... 42 ENVIRONMENTAL AND HUMAN HEALTH RISKS................................................................ 43 The Technology............................................................................................................... 43 Human Health Risks........................................................................................................ 43 Environmental Risks........................................................................................................45 RISKS BEYOND GENETIC ENGINEERING.............................................................................. 47 6. ANALYSIS OF THE BENEFITS ......................................................................................................50 Lower Pesticide Use & Increased Yields......................................................................... 52 7. CONCLUSIONS: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR MONSANTO?.......................................................54 Table of Figures Figure 1. Wall Street Earnings Estimate for Monsanto ................................................................ 14 Figure 2. Stock Price & Earnings Per Share Estimates .................................................................. 14 Figure 3. Innovest Earnings Estimate (Low Conservative Case)................................................... 14 Figure 4. Potential Financial Fallout from Contamination - the “Starlink” Scenario................ 15 Figure 5. Global Commercialized Transgenic Crop Plantings 2002............................................. 16 Figure 6. Transgenic Crops by Traits ..............................................................................................17 Figure 7. Monsanto Product Pipeline............................................................................................20 Figure 8. Canadian Wheat Board – Assessment of Market Acceptance for GE Wheat (2002) ..................................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 9. Wheat Export Market Rejection by Volume (based on Figure 8 above)....................24 Figure 10. Flow Chart of Market Rejection of GMOs ...................................................................29 Figure 11. Intensity Level of GMO Debate in Five Selected European Countries .......................30 Figure 12. U.S. Polling Data on Genetically Engineered Foods (1997-2001) ................................ 33 Figure 13. List of Food Companies with No GMO Policies ...........................................................34 Figure 14. Examples of Regulatory Barriers to GMO Commercialization .......................................38 Figure 15. Drop in U.S. Approval Ratings World-wide................................................................. 41 Figure 16. Direct Payments to U.S. Farmers and GE Crops Plantings ......................................... 51 This page left intentionally blank 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Innovest Strategic Value Advisors, a financial services firm based in New York, London, Paris and Toronto, analyzed investor risks related to Monsanto’s genetic engineering (GE) strategy. Partly owned by State Street Global Advisors and the Dutch pension fund ABP, Innovest is a leader in analyzing the financial impacts of environmental and social issues. Investors use Innovest’s best-in-class ratings, ranging from AAA to CCC, to minimize risk and maximize return potential. In nearly every industry sector, companies with above average environmental scores, taken as a group, outperformed below average firms by 300 to 3000 basis points per year in the stock market. Monsanto received a CCC EcoValue’21™ rating from Innovest, the lowest environmental rating. This implies the firm has above average risk exposure and less sophisticated management than peers. As a result, it will likely underperform in the stock market over the mid to long-term. Monsanto is the global leader in developing and marketing GE seeds (in 2002, 91% of GE hectares world-wide were planted with Monsanto seeds). The company also makes the world’s largest selling herbicide, Roundup/Glyphosate. Its strategy includes selling GE seeds intended to be used with Roundup (71% of GE seeds planted worldwide in 2002 were designed to