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StudentISenior Membership ....$10 Cityl ST, Zip 2 2 SPRING 1991 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Published by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars COVER STORY THEMORMONS PROGRESS 22 In the 19th century they were pariahs who turned American values up- side-down: The Mormons substituted communalism for individualism, theocracy for democracy, and polygamy for monogamy. In the 20th century, they became champions of capitalism and the American Dream-and one of the most prosperous and fastest-growing religions in the world. Malise Ruthven charts the Mormons' amazing metamor- phosis. Now that they have survived every adversity, he asks, will suc- cess prove the Mormons' undoing? RETHINKINGTHE ENVIRONMENT 60 We're all environmentalists now, according to the pollsters. Yet Ameri- cans are profoundly confused about the environment. Ancient myths about nature hamper our thinking, writes Daniel B. Botkin; all-too- modern alarmism distorts our policies, says Stephen &idman. IDEAS THE'HOT HAND'AND OTHERILLUSIONS OF 52 EVERYDAYLIFE The human mind's ceaseless quest for order frequently leads us to erro- neous beliefs: in ES< in streak shooting, and in other, far less amusing things. Thomas D. Gilovich explains. REFLECTIONS DEPARTMENTS MR, KUNDERA,THE EUROPEAN 102 From the Center Eastern Europe's most celebrated novelist is expected to do the unexpected, says Ivan Periodicals Sanders, and Milan Kundera's new novel, Immortality, holds true to form. Current Books THEDECAY OF IDLENESS 110 Research Reports Oh, for the good old days, says George Wat- son, when doing nothing really counted for Commentary something! DEATHSENTENCES 117 Cover: The Manti Temple (1889), an oil painting by Mormon artist C. C. A. Christensen (1831-1912). The temple is located Anthony Burgess recalls the curious event in Manti, Utah, about 120 miles south of Salt Lake City. Lent that made him a professional writer. by the Church Office of History and Art, Salt Lake City. USPS 346470 A\\ VOL. XV NO. 2 The Wilson Quarterly [ISSN-0363.3276) i.5 pnblislied in Jainian' [Winter),April [Sp~ing),J~dy (Suii~ii~er), and Ocrober (AUIUWI~Iby die Woodrow Wilsoi7 Iinen~utiunalCenter for Scl~olarsat 370 L'Eizfant Pronz<nade S.W., Suite 704, Wasl~ington,D.C. 20024. Indexed biei~izially.Su~scriptiul~s: one year, $24; two wars $43. 0ut.side US.: one year, 530.50; IIVO years, 556. Air inail outside U.S.: one year, S39; two years, $73. Single copies inailed up017 request: 86; seleited iack issues: 56, iizcllidiizg postage atid l~andliizg;outsfde US. and possessioizs, $7. 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NEW FROM LIBERTY FUND POLITICALSERMONS OF THE &EMCAN FOUNDINGERA: 1730m1805 Edited by Ellis Sandoz "Professor Sandoz has provided a superb collec- tion of sermons bearing on the politics of the era of the American Revolution and the early Republic. All in all, this is one of the most useful collections of so~~rcesavailable for the study of the young United States." -Robe77 Middlcl<a~!fiThe Hzl~~ti~gtot~Libra121 The political cult~~reof this countly was formed, refined and ti-ansmitted by the political sei-mon- the "p~llpitof the American Revol~~tio~~."These sources had been widely neglected and were largely inaccessible, Now, fifty-five of the most revealing political sermons have been made avail- able in modernized and newly typeset form. 1598 + miii-pages. - Foreword, acknowledgments, editor's note, bibliography, chronology. Hardcover $38.00 Paperback $12.00 THE STATE OF THE UNION:Essays in Social Criticism By Albert Jay Nock Edited with a Foreword by Charles H. Hamilton "Albei-t Jay Noclc has lolng had a rep~ltation,in certain circles, of being one of America's shrewdest social critics. In these days of b~irea~~craticgiganticism, foreign interve~~tion- ism, mass semi-literacy and y~~ppieethics, it comes as sometl~ingof a shock to find that he saw the future and lcnew it wo~~ldn'tworlc." -Robert M. Ct-zindcn, Uni~crsi~of Texas Albert Jay Neck (1870-1 945) is widely regarded as one of the finest writers and critics in American letters. This is the first collection chosen froin his entire worlc and the first new collection in nearly thil~y-fiveyears. It shows again that his likes and dislilws contain a remarlcable freshness and presciel~ce. 3443 + m pages. Foreword, selected bibliography, acknowledgments, index. Hardcover $20.00 0-86597-092-0 Paperback $7.50 0-86597-093-9 Libei-tyPrcss, 1991 Prepayment req~~iredoil a11 orders not for resale. We pay boolc rate postage 011 prepaid orders. Mastercard and Visa accepted for a hai~dlii~gcharge of $2.50. Please allow approximatelv4 weelcs for delivery. All orders from o~ltsidethe United States must be prepaid in U.S. dollars. To order, or for a copy of our current catalog~~e,please write: Liberty Fund, Inc., Department FF102, 7440 North Shadeland Aven~~e,I~~dianapolis, IN 46250. With Audio-Forum's intermediate and advanced materi- ds,it7seasy to maintain and sharpen your foreign-language skills. Besides intermediate and advanced audio-cassette courses - most developed for the U .S . State Dept . - we offer foreign-language mystery dramas, dialogs recorded in Paris, games, music, and many other helpfbl materi- als. And if you want to learn a new language, we have beginning courses for adults and for children. We offer introductory and advanced materials in most of the world's languages: French, German, Spanish, Italian, Japanese, Mandarin, Greek, Russian, Portuguese, Korean, Norwegian, etc. - 191 courses in 56 languages. Call 1-800-225-5400 for FREE 36-page catalog, or write: Room El46 !36 Broad St., Guilford, CT 06437 (2031453-97w From the Center Every now and then a single sentence generally opportunistic indigenous peo- compresses so many facts, and evokes re- ples, in defiance of tribal, economic, lin- flection upon such a wide circle of related guistic, geographical, or any other rational topics, that it deserves more than fleeting criteria. More ironic, given the victors' attention. Such a sentence appeared in a Wilsonian dedication to national self- recent New York Times editorial: determination when they were created at the conclusion of World War I, are the Following the collapse of the Ottoman cases of the multinational states of Yugo- Empire after World War I, British impe- slavia and Czechoslovakia. The former rial strategists uprooted the Hashemite now seems more than likely to fragment dynasty from its native Arabian soil and transplanted it to Jordan, an entity carved into its ethnic and linguistic parts, and the out of Britain's original Palestine Man- latter is by no means secure. date. Nor did all such cases follow on the heels of World War I. An exhausted Britain This sentence tells us most of what we withdrew in 1947 from both the Indian need to know to understand the high-wire subcontinent and its Palestine Mandate. In act that Jordan's King Hussein has been Asia, two new states, India and Pakistan, performing for nearly 40 years. The de- were created, joined by a third in 1971 scendant of an alien dynasty, ruling over a when East Pakistan won its independence country invented by a European power as Bangladesh. In the Middle East, Israel and inhabited by a population (now pre- was established-by the British, by the dominantly Palestinian) that owes him United Nations, and finally, following re- none of the traditional allegiance monar- jection by its Arab neighbors, by the force chies are built upon, the king has some- of its own arms. In both regions.-, the re- how managed to survive in per- suits were the same: the creation haps the most dangerous region of essentially artificial states con- on Earth. One cannot under- taining significant hostile (or po- stand his precarious situation- tentially hostile) ethnic and reli- and his choice to side with Iraq gious- minorities. in the Gulf War-without first To some extent the tensions understanding the historical circum- and bloodshed that might have been ex- stances that created it. pected in these areas were tempered dur- Jordan's dilemma, significant though it ing the Cold War by client relationships mav be for the Middle East. is onlv one of with the superpowers. As we have learned theproducts of a vastly broader phenome- in the Persian Gulf, will soon learn in Cen- non: the arbitrary creation of states in ar- tral Europe, and may possibly even learn eas ruled by defeated or depleted empires on the subcontinent, those days are over.