Arakan (Rakhine State) A Land in Conflict on Myanmar’s Western Frontier AUTHOR: Martin Smith DESIGN: Guido Jelsma PHOTO CREDITS: Tom Kramer (TK) Martin Smith (MS) The Irrawaddy (IR) Agence France-Presse (AFP) European Pressphoto Agency (EPA) Mizzima (MZ) Reuters (RS) COVER PHOTO: Displaced Rakhine woman fetching water in IDP camp near Sittwe (TK) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This publication was made possible through the financial support of Sweden. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of TNI and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the donor. PUBLICATION DETAILS: Contents of the report may be quoted or reproduced for non-commercial purposes, provided that the source of information is properly cited. ISBN 978-90-70563-69-1 TRANSNATIONAL INSTITUTE (TNI) De Wittenstraat 25, 1052 AK Amsterdam, The Netherlands Tel: +31-20-6626608, Fax: +31-20-6757176 e-mail: [email protected] www.tni.org/en/myanmar-in-focus Amsterdam, December 2019 2 | Arakan (Rakhine State): A Land in Conflict on Myanmar’s Western Frontier transnationalinstitute Table of Contents Myanmar Map 3 Arakan Political Timeline 4 Abbreviations 6 1. Introduction 8 Arakan Map 11 2. The Forgotten Kingdom of Arakan 12 A Legacy of Conflict and Colonisation 12 Rakhine State: A Contemporary Snapshot 15 British Rule and the Development of Nationalist Movements 17 Japanese Invasion and Inter-communal Violence 19 The Marginalisation of Arakan and Rush to Independence 21 Rakhine, Rohingya and the “Politics of Labelling” 25 3. The Parliamentary Era (1948-62) 28 A Country Goes Underground 28 Electoral Movements Revive 29 “Arms for Democracy”: Peace Breakthroughs and Political Failures 31 The Mayu Frontier Administration and Ne Win’s Seizure of Power 34 4. The “Burmese Way to Socialism” (1962-88) 36 Military Rule, “Four Cuts” and a New Generation of Conflicts 36 The Revival of Armed Struggle in Arakan 37 The 1974 Constitution, Rakhine State and Population Census 40 Regional Clearances, Nagamin and Refugee Flight 42 A Regional Conflict Complex 45 Opposition Retrenchment, Ethno-Political Divisions and the BSPP Collapse 47 transnationalinstitute Arakan (Rakhine State): A Land in Conflict on Myanmar’s Western Frontier | 1 5. Military Government: The SLORC-SPDC (1988-2011) 52 Electoral Promises and Political Repression 52 Conflict Resumes, Militant Reorganisation and the 1991-92 Rohingya Exodus 53 Government Transition and Opposition Re-alignments 58 Operation Leech and Shwe Gas: New Fronts and New Crises 61 The 2008 Constitution and 2010 General Election 68 Timeline: Armed Movements Arakan 69 6. Quasi-Civilian Government: The Era of President Thein Sein (2011-16) 72 The 2012 Outbreak of Anti-Muslim Violence 73 Discriminatory Measures in the Aftermath of the 2012 Violence 76 The Upsurge in Rakhine Nationalism 77 Ceasefires and Militarisation during a Time of Change 79 “Ethnic Armed Organisations, November 2019” 82 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement: The Political Failure in Rakhine State 83 The 2015 General Election, Arakan National Party and Thein Sein’s Departure 88 7. The NLD-Tatmadaw Government (2016-present) 92 The 21st Century Panglong Conference and Dialogue Breakdown 93 The “Eight Principles” of the UNFC 96 The Rise of ARSA and Renewed Rohingya Crisis 97 Political Impasse and the Entry of China 99 The Kofi Annan Commission and the Rohingya Exodus 102 Facebook and the Role of Social Media 107 Political Crisis and the Ascendancy of Rakhine Nationalism 107 The New Great Game: Arakan in the International Frontline 110 8. Arakan Today 118 A Land in Turmoil 118 New Conflicts or New Ways to Solutions? 122 A Rohingya Postscript 127 9. Conclusions 132 Notes 136 2 | Arakan (Rakhine State): A Land in Conflict on Myanmar’s Western Frontier transnationalinstitute Myanmar Map transnationalinstitute Arakan (Rakhine State): A Land in Conflict on Myanmar’s Western Frontier | 3 Arakan Political Timeline 1784 Mrauk-U Kingdom invaded under the Konbaung Dynasty 1824-1826 Arakan annexed during first Anglo-Burmese War 1885-1886 Arakan incorporated into British Burma in third Anglo-Burmese War; Arakan administered as Division in Ministerial Burma 1918-1919 Nationalist parties revive with Arakan Association 1936 Jamiatul-Uluma North Arakan established 1937 British Burma separated from Indian Empire; Arakan National Congress established 1941-45 World War Two and Japanese occupation 1942 Outbreak of inter-communal violence 1945 Arakan People’s Liberation Party established 1946 White Flag-Red Flag CPB split 1947 Panglong Agreement on principles of equality and union Independence of Union of Burma; Arakan incorporated as Division; Hill Tracts 1948 separated into Chin Special Division; armed struggle begins by Rakhine, Mujahid, CPB and other groups 1951 IAPG wins Arakan Division majority in general election 1956 ANUO allies with National United Front; NUF second to U Nu’s AFPFL in general election 1958 U Nu’s “Arms for Democracy” peace movement 1958-1960 Ne Win “Military Caretaker” administration 1960-1962 “Federal Proposal” by Shan, Rakhine and other ethnic leaders; agreement on formation of Arakan State; Mayu Frontier Administration established 1962 Ne Win military coup; “Burmese Way to Socialism” imposed 1963 CPA attends nationwide “Peace Parley”; armed struggle revives by Rakhine, Mujahid, Rohingya and CPB groups 1967 “Rice Killing Day” in Sittwe 1973 National census and referendum 1974 BSPP constitution introduced; Rakhine State established 1978 Operation Nagamin and 1st Rohingya refugee exodus 4 | Arakan (Rakhine State): A Land in Conflict on Myanmar’s Western Frontier transnationalinstitute 1982 Citizenship Law introduced 1988 Democracy protests; BSPP collapse; SLORC takes office; democracy exiles take refuge in armed opposition territory 1989 CPB collapse; ethnic ceasefires begin 1990 NLD wins general election; ALD gains most Rakhine State seats; NDPHR also wins four seats nd 1992 ALD, NDPHR and other ethnic parties banned; Tatmadaw offensive; 2 Rohingya refugee exodus 1993 National Convention starts to draft new constitution; formation of USDA 1997 SLORC government renamed SPDC 1998 ALD joins Committee Representing People’s Parliament with NLD 2002 ALD joins United Nationalities Alliance 2008 Cyclone Nargis; referendum and announcement of new constitution 2009 Ceasefire groups ordered to transform into BGFs 2010 NLD and ALD boycott general election; USDP wins polls; RNDP gains most Rakhine State seats 2011 SPDC steps down; President Thein Sein begins new peace process 2012 NLD enters parliament in by-elections; ALP ceasefire; inter-communal violence breaks out Partial Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement; NLD wins general election; ANP wins 2015 most Rakhine State seats; most Muslim candidates barred; Rohingya population disenfranchised st 2016 21 Century Panglong Conference; ULA-AA begins operations in Rakhine State; ARSA emerges; new conflict and refugee flight nd 2017 2 Panglong-21; China launches BRI; report of Kofi Annan Advisory Commission; ARSA attacks resume; Tatmadaw crackdown; 3rd Rohingya refugee flight protestors killed in Mrauk-U; ex-ANP leader Aye Maung arrested; 3rd Panglong-21; 2018 UN Fact-Finding Mission alleges “war crimes”; Western Command excluded from peace process China steps up efforts to broker peace; ULA conflict intensifies; over a million 2019 refugees in Bangladesh; up to 200,000 internally displaced; ICC and ICJ launch investigations into crimes against humanity and persecution 2020 Scheduled date of third general election under 2008 constitution transnationalinstitute Arakan (Rakhine State): A Land in Conflict on Myanmar’s Western Frontier | 5 Abbreviations AA1 Arakan Army CPB Communist Party of Burma AA2 Arakan Army (armed wing of CRPP Committee Representing the NUPA, subsequently ANC) People’s Parliament AA3 Arakan Army (armed wing of ULA) DAB Democratic Alliance of Burma AASYC All Arakan Students and Youth DHRP Democracy and Human Rights Congress Party ABSDF All Burma Students Democratic DKBA Democratic Karen (Buddhist) Front Benevolent Army AFPFL Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom DPA Democratic Party of Arakan League EAO ethnic armed organisation AIA Arakan Independence Alliance FPNCC Federal Political Negotiation and AIO Arakan Independence Organisation Consultative Committee ALD Arakan League for Democracy IAPG Independent Arakanese Parliamentary Group ALD (E) Arakan League for Democracy (exile) ICC International Criminal Court ALO Arakan Liberation Organisation ICJ International Court of Justice ALP Arakan Liberation Party IDP internally-displaced person ANC Arakan National Congress KIO Kachin Independence Organisation ANC Arakan National Council KMT Kuomintang (2004-present) KNLD Kamans National League for ANLP Arakan National Liberation Party Democracy ANP Arakan National Party KNPP Kaman National Progressive Party ANUO Arakan National United KNPP Karenni National Progressive Party Organisation KNU Karen National Union ARIF Arakan Rohingya Islamic Front KPC Karen (KNU/KNLA) Peace Council ARSA Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army LDU Lahu Democratic Union BCIM Bangladesh, China, India and LID Light Infantry Division Myanmar Economic Corridor MFA Mayu Frontier Administration BGF Border Guard Force MLOB Muslim Liberation Organisation of BIA Burma Independence Army Burma BMC Burma Muslim Congress MNDAA Myanmar National Democratic BNA Burma National Army Alliance Army (Kokang) BRI Belt and Road Initiative MNF Mizo National Front BSPP Burma Socialist Programme Party MP member of parliament CMEC China-Myanmar Economic MPC Myanmar Peace Center