Notes on Ignatius Global Issues Evening Presentation January 10, 2012 “How Secure Is Our National Security: Where Are The Threats?” 1. Opening segment on Republican primary field (in context of it being New Hampshire primary evening). 2. A brief set of comments on how he would expect the President to tout his administration’s foreign policy/defense achievements in the 2012 election: --Has been the most active in effective counterterrorism and strong covert action although covert action will be difficult to talk about. He commented negatively about candidates promising use of covert action. “What is it about ‘covert’ that they don’t understand?” --Has reversed a previous trend of negative views of U.S. around the world --Followed through on exit from Iraq although outcome without U.S. troop presence is worrisome and uncertain. Kurdistan (in the north) is going its own way and doing fine. --Plan for Afghanistan (although Ignatius does not feel that the strategy there has been an effective one and it is not clear that the exit planned will be an easy one) --Afghanistan, he noted, is of importance to the U.S. only because of bordering Pakistan and its proximity to Pak nuclear weapons, the security of which is of paramount concern --Success claimed in Libya 3. National security threat highlights --Iran. Economic sanctions are working and are likely to be intensified (particularly related to pushing other countries to not buy Iranian oil). Iran is feeling the pressure and is operating wildly and erratically. He quoted Harvard Kennedy School professor, Graham Allison as saying that Iran is “the ‘Cuban Missile Crisis’ in slow motion.” Although there is no enthusiasm in the Administration for war with Iran, it is likely there will be some sort of confrontation sometime—just unclear when. Despite the Iran-Israel rhetoric, Israeli military and intelligence leaders do not believe any military action against Iran makes sense. Additionally, he emphasized that a “collision is coming” because Iran is being backed into a corner. --Pakistan. A major worry (although he noted that there is still cooperation going on behind the scenes on some intelligence matters). Pakistan’s army is in control and not the weak civilian government (historically true). Top leadership is with the Pak army intelligence service- ISI. There are ongoing strains between the military and the government and distrust of U.S. with which it is seen to be identified. He noted his worries about the fate of former Pakistan Ambassador to the U.S. Haqqani. He is under house arrest and charged with sending an unsigned memo to former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullins warning of a possible coup by the military in Pakistan. The U.S. and the Pakistan Army have divergent objectives in the region. The Pakistan Army views control of Afghanistan essential to its security interests and fears Indian penetration of its western borders. It has cooperated closely with the Taliban and retains ties and support. The U.S. is concerned about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. --On Afghanistan and Pakistan, he expressed concern about getting out too soon 4. Post 911 US defense policy --He commented on the announced shifts in defense planning, budget reductions and felt that they made sense; that there needed to be a redirection from support for future big ground wars to issues that will need to be addressed through other, more sophisticated technologies such as drones or cyberspace. He noted that this is where China is headed with its defense policy. They are not trying to match the U.S. carrier for carrier and happy to let the U.S. spend its military dollars keeping the sea lanes open. He also agreed that the increased focus towards Asia makes sense, despite Europe potentially feeling abandoned. That is where the world trade and markets are concentrated and growing. Countries in the region look to the U.S. to block Chinese dominance. In response to questions of concern about reductions, he noted that military leadership he has talked with is ok with it as long as it is handled strategically and thoughtfully. --In referring to the “Pacific Century” he talked about the Navy and Air Force deploying more power. --In summing up the “new” strategy, he emphasized that the President talked about “turning a page” and that the decade of 9/11 is over. This meant we are not going to do Iraq and Afghanistan type operations in the future. -Sandy Cook and Ambassador Marilyn McAfee (Ret.) .