Bangkok Retail Q2: Post Lockdown, What Happens Next? Measuring the impact of COVID-19 on Bangkok’s retail market and discussing the opportunities and threats in a post-lockdown market Jeremy O’Sullivan MRICS 15 July 2020 What we’re discussing today To understand the likely future The current situation direction & how retailers can prepare faced by retailers, both landlord and tenant Explore how they have each Recommend how tenants and landlords should act to minimize threat and survived…… or thrived maximise the opportunities ahead COVID-19: Thailand’s Current Situation New daily cases - total deaths Malls Close 3,197 Cases. 250 Malls Reopen 58 Deaths. 200 WHO declare Pandemic 150 100 50 0 2020-01-13 2020-02-12 2020-03-20 2020-04-19 2020-05-19 2020-06-18 COVID-19: Economy GDP Growth (%) Tourist Arrivals THB:USD 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Currently hoping -1 Peaked 2 Jan ’20 (0.033) -2 -3 for 10 million -4 -5 -6 0.0330000 -7 -8 0.0325000 -9 -10 0.0320000 -11 -12 45 39.8 -13 38.3 0.0315000 -14 40 35.4 -15 32.6 0.0310000 -16 35 29.9 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 30 24.8 0.0305000 Bottomed out 25 0.0300000 2 Apr ’20 (0.030) 20 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.0295000 25 Sep25 2019 01 Oct 2018 28 Dec 2018 27 Mar 2019 28 Jun 2019 24 Dec 2019 20 Mar 2020 19 Jun 2020 Q4’19 CCI lowest in over 5 years. 2020, likely to be lowest since Asian Financial Crisis 4 COVID-19: Measures Taken Lockdown • Alcohol sales restrictions • Emergency Decree • Stores & malls closed • International travel ban • Curfew • No inter-provincial travel • Citywide work from home Present • Emergency Decree • Limited trading hours • Limited international arrivals 5 Bangkok Retail – Fundamentals Retail Sales Index Type Q1’20 310.00 Shopping Mall 5,462,280 290.00 270.00 8.8 million Community Mall 1,296,576 250.00 230.00 sqm of retail space Hypermarket 844,953 210.00 190.00 in Bangkok, as of Q1’20 Specialty Store 479,247 170.00 150.00 Department Store 322,442 APR OCT APR OCT APR OCT APR OCT APR OCT APR 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 On Site Retail 297,903 e Of which Entertainment Complex 121,765 Distribution of retail 734,404 1,049,900 1,267,000 3.1 million is considered to be ‘Prime’ Over 1.2 million sqm of luxury focused retail 1,162,000 6 Bangkok Retail – CBD Prime malls distribution Suburban Midtown Suburban Downtown Midtown CBD CBD Downtown 7 Bangkok Retail – Key Pipeline Key Pipeline Prime area forecast (sqm) 37.7% additional space to open in Bangkok by 2024 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 8 Bangkok Retail – The Lockdown Turn to Online Platforms Malls & Stores Closed Other than the essentials Foodpanda, Grab, Instagram, Facebook Marketplace, Lazada, LINE Last Mile Shopping, Shopee Delivery Logistics Courier services, Were staff paid? Rental discounts offered by the major landlords Grab, Lalamove etc. Big mall groups provided 100% if unable to trade; if essential, approx. 50% discount - Landlords – some operational staff salary reduced to 30% Some small landlords offered discounts, others, none. - Retailers – Varied. Big brands-maintained salaries 9 Bangkok Retail – The Emergence 10 Bangkok Retail – The Emergence Q2, Apparent footfall compared to Q1 (pre-Covid) MBK 30% ICON SIAM 25% SIAM DISCOVERY 75% SAMYAN MITRTOWN 95% SIAM CENTER 80% CENTRAL RAMA9 90% SIAM SQ.1 95% THE STREET RATCH. 50% SIAM PARAGON 85% CENTRAL EAST V. 90% CNTRL WORLD 70% CRYSTAL PARK 90% CNTRL EMBASSY 95% FUTURE PARK RANG. 95% TERMINAL 21 75% CENTRAL VILLAGE 10% EMPORIUM 30% MEGA BANGNA 100% EMQUARTIER 80% ICON SIAM 25% 11 Bangkok Retail – Casualties & Success​ 12 Bangkok Retail – Prime occupancy & rent Occupancy Rental Rates 99.0% 97.0% -2% 95.0% Occupancy -2.8% 93.0% Q2’20 91.0% Rental rate deduction across 89.0% CBD and downtown malls 87.0% Suburban 85.0% Midtown Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Downtown Av. 2,109THB CBD 13 Bangkok Retail – Recovery Historical GDP Current Recovery? 14 Bangkok Retail – Localised Recovery 15 Bangkok Retail – From Our Clients Tenants Tim Hortons JD Sport Landlords ▪ New tenants still signing, though more interest in smaller units ▪ Tourists are key customers, eagerly awaiting their return ▪ Tenant discounts still in place (case by case) ▪ B-Quick Automotive performing particularly well ▪ Foot traffic remains down 40%, was 50% until schools reopened ▪ New tenants enquiring again ▪ Foot traffic returning, they believe due to open & spacious design 16 Historical – Spanish Flu (1918-1919) ‘Those offering remedies will thrive’ Disinfectants, face masks and therapies • Midst of WW1 • 1/3rd of global population (1.5bil) infected, 500 mil, 50 mil died, • 3-year recovery once flu receded • High unemployment, 1.4% to 11.7%, 3 years to then reach 4% ‘Fresh Air’ became the focus of future design • ‘Pent-up capital’ & technology helped economies to emerge Alleviate density, avoid queues, create more open spaces 17 Bangkok Retail – Threats Second Wave Lagging economic recovery Slow recovery of tourism Global supply chain issues 18 Bangkok Retail – Opportunities E-Commerce / E-Payments Omni-channel retail Contactless Retail Drive-thru, pick-up options, dine at home Health / Well-being/ Hygiene Discount & Outlets Loyalty Shock Home Entertainment 19 Bangkok Retail – Future Trends Flight to Quality “ Bad retail is dead ” New stock, slow up-take? Landlords to focus on tenant retention Downward rental pressure Experience & Concept stores Lifestyle Retail Continued emergence of F&B? 20 Bangkok Retail – Steps to Take Alleviate density, ensure space Omni-Channel marketing Target Thai’s, don’t count on tourism revenue Maintain good tenant-landlord relationships Review your current location 21 From the team at Savills Thailand Chadathorn Sornvai Jeremy O’Sullivan MRICS Associate Director Associate Director Commercial Agency Head of Research & Consultancy and Valuation T: +66 2636 0300 T: +66 2636 0300 E: [email protected] E: [email protected] .