United States Government Accountability Office Report to Congressional Committees June 2018 MILITARY PERSONNEL Collecting Additional Data Could Enhance Pilot Retention Efforts GAO-18-439 June 2018 MILITARY PERSONNEL Collecting Additional Data Could Enhance Pilot Retention Efforts Highlights of GAO-18-439, a report to congressional committees Why GAO Did This Study What GAO Found Military pilots perform an array of The Air Force, the Navy, and the Marine Corps had staffing gaps in some, but operations, from combat to not all, fixed-wing pilot communities (or types of pilots) for operational positions reconnaissance, that are critical to from fiscal years 2013 through 2017. Gaps exist when actual staffing levels do DOD successfully executing its not meet service-authorized staffing levels. GAO found that operational position national security mission. Retaining staffing gaps decreased or generally remained the same over this time period, qualified pilots is important to ensure except for in the fighter pilot community. For fighter pilots, the gap increased that requirements can be met, and to across all three services over the past 2 to 5 fiscal years (see figure). In April recoup the substantial investments—of 2018, GAO recommended that all three services reevaluate fighter pilot both time and money—that the squadron requirements. The services agreed with these recommendations. services make in training their pilots. Public Law 115-91 (2017) included a Fighter Pilot Operational Position Staffing Gaps by Percentage from Fiscal Years 2013-2017 provision for GAO to review the extent to which there is a national pilot shortage and its effects. Among other things, this report assesses for the Air Force, the Navy, and the Marine Corps (1) the extent to which the services had fixed-wing pilot staffing gaps from fiscal years 2013-2017; (2) how the services monitor pilot retention, and the extent to which airline market conditions have influenced retention; and (3) the incentives the services have developed to retain pilots, and the extent to which the Air Force’s annual business case includes information to justify retention The three services monitor pilot retention through loss rates, but insufficient data bonuses. GAO compared service- limit a full understanding of the extent to which airline market conditions have authorized pilot staffing levels to actual influenced military pilot retention. The Department of Defense (DOD) has noted staffing levels, analyzed economic projected increases in airline hiring when justifying increases to aviation retention indicators, conducted a literature bonuses. However, DOD does not have data on the number of pilots leaving the review, and interviewed airline military to accept jobs as airline pilots because, according to service officials, the association, DOD, and service officials. services do not have mechanisms to capture these data. While studies have What GAO Recommends identified a correlation between airline hiring and military pilot retention, a study conducted on the Air Force’s behalf identified the absence of these data as a GAO recommends that the Air Force, limitation. Without developing and implementing mechanisms to capture data the Navy, and the Marine Corps about pilots’ post-service employment, including at commercial airlines, DOD develop and implement mechanisms lacks key information to support decisions regarding retention incentives. to capture information about pilots’ post-service employment; and that the All three services have developed retention incentives, but the Air Force’s annual Air Force analyze staffing levels by business case for aviation retention bonuses—prepared in accordance with a officer grade as part of its annual statutory requirement—does not differentiate staffing gaps by officer grade to business case for aviation retention ensure bonuses are appropriately targeted. To help determine bonus amounts, bonuses. DOD concurred with the the Air Force uses a model to weigh various factors, including staffing levels for recommendations, but noted concerns, each pilot community. However, according to an Air Force official, the model only which GAO addressed in the report. considers overall staffing levels and does not differentiate between senior officer View GAO-18-439. For more information, staffing gaps—indicating retention challenges—and junior officer gaps, indicating contact Brenda S. Farrell at (202) 512-3604 or other challenges. Without analyzing staffing levels by officer grade as part of its [email protected] or Andrew Von Ah at annual business case, the Air Force may not know whether it is targeting its (202) 512-2834 or [email protected]. bonuses—in the right amounts—to the appropriate pilot communities. United States Government Accountability Office Contents Letter 1 Background 7 Gaps Existed Between Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps Authorized and Actual Staffing Levels in Some, but Not All, Pilot Communities from Fiscal Years 2013-2017 12 Commercial Airline Pilot Demand and Compensation Have Increased 20 DOD Monitors Pilot Retention Through Loss Rates, but Insufficient Data Limit a Full Understanding of the Effects of the Airline Pilot Labor Market on Military Pilot Retention 30 The Air Force, the Navy, and the Marine Corps Have Retention Incentives, but the Air Force Business Case Lacks a Key Piece of Information to Appropriately Target Bonuses 36 Conclusions 45 Recommendations for Executive Action 45 Agency Comments and Our Evaluation 46 Appendix I Army Fixed-Wing Pilot Staffing Levels from Fiscal Years 2013-2017 49 Appendix II Air Force Reserve Component Fixed-Wing Pilot Staffing Levels from Fiscal Years 2013-2017 51 Appendix III Scope and Methodology 53 Appendix IV Comments from the Department of Defense 59 Appendix V GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments 62 Related GAO Products 63 Page i GAO-18-439 Military Pilot Retention Tables Table 1: Overview of Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps Fixed- Wing Pilot Communities 7 Table 2: Air Force and Marine Corps Active Component Fixed- Wing Pilot Communities’ Operational and Non-operational Positions, Fiscal Year 2017 14 Table 3: Gaps in Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps Active Component Fixed-Wing Pilot Community Operational Positions, Fiscal Years 2013-2017 15 Table 4: Percent of Marine Corps Active Component Tanker Pilot Positions Filled (Actual Staffing Levels Compared with Authorized Operational Positions) by Officer Grade, Fiscal Years 2013-2017 20 Table 5: Comparison of Selected Labor Market Indicators for the Airline Pilot Occupation for the Periods 2000 through 2012 and 2012 through 2017 22 Table 6: Active Duty Aviation Retention Bonus Amounts, Fiscal Years 2013-2018 41 Table 7: Percent of Eligible Air Force and Navy Pilots Accepting Aviation Retention Bonuses, Fiscal Years 2013-2017 42 Table 8: Actual Army Fixed-Wing Staffing Levels Compared with Service-Authorized Staffing Levels, Fiscal Years 2013- 2017 49 Table 9: Percent of Air Force Reserve Component Fixed-Wing Pilot Positions Filled, Fiscal Years 2013-2017 51 Figures Figure 1: Air Force and Marine Corps Active Component Actual Overall Fixed-Wing Pilot Staffing Levels Compared with Service-Authorized Levels, Fiscal Years 2013-2017 13 Figure 2: Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps Active Component Actual Fighter Pilot Staffing Levels Compared with Service-Authorized Operational Positions, Fiscal Years 2013-2017 17 Figure 3: Navy Active Component Surveillance and Transport Actual Aviator Staffing Levels Compared with Authorized Operational Positions by Career Milestone, Fiscal Years 2013-2017 19 Figure 4: Mainline Airline Pilot Hiring from 1990 through 2016 25 Figure 5: Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps Pilot Loss Rates, Fiscal Years 2013-2017 31 Page ii GAO-18-439 Military Pilot Retention Figure 6: Actual and Projected Costs for Aviation Incentive Pay by Service, Fiscal Years 2013-2019 39 Figure 7: Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps Actual and Projected Aviation Retention Bonus Costs, Fiscal Years 2013-2019 40 Abbreviations ATP airline transport pilot certificate BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics DOD Department of Defense FAA Federal Aviation Administration This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. The published product may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further permission from GAO. However, because this work may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately. Page iii GAO-18-439 Military Pilot Retention Letter 441 G St. N.W. Washington, DC 20548 June 21, 2018 The Honorable John McCain Chairman The Honorable Jack Reed Ranking Member Committee on Armed Services United States Senate The Honorable Mac Thornberry Chairman The Honorable Adam Smith Ranking Member Committee on Armed Services House of Representatives Military pilots perform an array of operations, from combat to surveillance and reconnaissance, that are critical to the Department of Defense’s (DOD) ability to successfully execute its national security mission. In April 2018, we reported that in fiscal year 2017, the Air Force, the Navy, and the Marine Corps all had gaps—fewer pilots than service-authorized levels—in their fighter pilot staffing levels of up to 27 percent.1 Retaining qualified pilots is important not only to ensure that operational requirements can be met, but also to recoup the substantial investments—of both time and money—that the services make in training their pilots. An Air Force