FACTORS AFFECTING PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES IN CALIFORNIA 2017 FINAL REPORT CONTRACT NO. 13-303 PREPARED FOR: CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD RESEARCH DIVISION CALIFORNIA ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY 1001 I STREET SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA 95814 PREPARED BY: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, LOS ANGELES LOS ANGELES, CA 90095 MAY 23, 2017 To view an electronic color version of this report and for more information about ARB Research Division’s research and activities, please visit our website: http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/research.htm 2 Table of Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................ 10 Abstract .................................................................................................................................................. 10 Chapter 1: Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... 11 1.1 Summary of Findings ............................................................................................................................. 11 1.2 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 14 1.3 Report Road Map and Research Questions .......................................................................................... 14 Chapter 2: Data and Methods .......................................................................................................... 19 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 19 2.2 Data Sources ......................................................................................................................................... 19 2.3 Data Methods ....................................................................................................................................... 22 2.4 Overview of the More Advanced Methods .......................................................................................... 22 Chapter 3: Plug-in Electric Vehicles Sales Patterns in California ....................................... 32 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 32 3.2 Vehicle Introductions and Sales Volumes ............................................................................................. 33 3.3 PEV Market Trends................................................................................................................................ 36 Chapter 4: Predicting Sales of Plug-in Electric Vehicles ........................................................ 54 4.1 Predicting PEV Purchases Across Census Tracts ................................................................................... 54 4.2 Results from the Models Predicting PEV Purchases Across Neighborhoods ........................................ 56 4.3 Analysis of Future PEV Sales in Early- Versus Late-adopting Neighborhoods ...................................... 58 4.4 Are We Identifying Predictive Variables Associated with PEV Purchases or New Car Purchases More Generally? ................................................................................................................................................... 61 4.5 A Deeper Exploration of the Neighborhood Determinants of Purchasing BEVs versus PHEVS............ 62 4.6 An Early Look at the Neighborhood Determinants of Used PEVs ......................................................... 65 4.7 Summary of Model Results ................................................................................................................... 69 4.9 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 70 Chapter 5: Vehicle Rebate Uptake and the Effects of New Vehicle Introductions on Sales ......................................................................................................................................................... 71 5.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 71 5.2 Rebate Uptake Across California ........................................................................................................... 71 5.3 New Model Introduction Impacts on PEV Sales ................................................................................... 77 5.4 Summary of Findings ............................................................................................................................. 77 5.5 Methods, Data and Limitations ............................................................................................................. 78 5.6 Results ................................................................................................................................................... 79 5.6.1 Sales by PEV Model ........................................................................................................................ 79 5.6.2 Order Effects of Introduction by Body Type ................................................................................... 80 5.6.3 Effects of Introducing PEV Versions of Pre-existing ICE Models .................................................... 81 5.6.4 Exploring Complementary and Substitution Effect of Across PEV Model Introductions................ 82 5.7 Summary of Findings for New Vehicle Introductions ........................................................................... 83 3 Chapter 6: How does the Presence of HOV Lanes Affect Plug-in Electric Vehicle Adoption in California? A Generalized Propensity Score Approach ................................. 84 6.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 84 6.2 Theoretical Model ................................................................................................................................. 85 6.3 Data ....................................................................................................................................................... 87 6.3.1 Choice of Covariates ...................................................................................................................... 90 6.4 Methodology ......................................................................................................................................... 90 6.5 Results ................................................................................................................................................... 93 6.5.1 Common Support ........................................................................................................................... 93 6.5.2 Balancing of Covariates ................................................................................................................. 95 6.5.3 First and Second Stage Estimation ................................................................................................ 95 6.5.4 Dose-Response Curves ................................................................................................................... 96 6.5.5 Simulations .................................................................................................................................... 99 6.6 Caveats and Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 101 6.7 References .......................................................................................................................................... 102 Chapter 7: Comparing Demand for Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: A Stated-Preference Analysis ........................................................................................................... 104 7.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 104 7.2 Survey Design and Data ...................................................................................................................... 108 7.3 Model Specification ............................................................................................................................ 116 7.4 Results ................................................................................................................................................. 120 7.4.1 Mixed Logit Model ....................................................................................................................... 120 7.4.2 Alternative-Specific Constant Logit Model .................................................................................. 124 7.4.3 Latent Class Logit Model .............................................................................................................. 128 7.5 Implications for Policy and the Emerging Market ............................................................................... 131 7.6 References .......................................................................................................................................... 133 Chapter 8: Designing Policy