Duncan, Fraser W. (2003) A comparative study of Christian Democratic parties in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands: at the crossroads between tradition and adaption. PhD thesis. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/5615/ Copyright and moral rights for this thesis are retained by the author A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the Author The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the Author When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given Glasgow Theses Service http://theses.gla.ac.uk/ [email protected] A comparative study of Christian Democratic parties in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands: at the crossroads between tradition and adaptation by Fraser W. Duncan A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy to the Department of Politics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Glasgow September 2003 Abstract This study is an in-depth investigation into the Christian Democratic parties of Germany, Austria and the Netherlands, focusing particularly on these parties during the 1990s. The primary intention is to give greater coverage to these oft-neglected parties through an account of political, electoral, programmatic and organisational developments. The research probes the position of the parties in the 1990s and analyses the extent to which the electoral decline of these parties after 1990 was the result of common factors as well as the role of nationally specific contextual variables. This is carried out through a consideration of the contraction of the social bases of Christian Democratic partisanship and detailed case-studies of the parties in the 1990s. The reactions of the parties to this decline are also analysed, looking specifically at strategic, programmatic and organisational changes. Historical background will also be provided by the opening chapters. Chapter two looks at Christian Democrats in the early post­ war period, highlighting the rapid rise of such parties and contrasting the lack of a unified Christian Democratic party in the Netherlands while chapter three investigates the reaction of the parties to the loss of national office and/or the emergence of electoral problems. In each case, programmatic and organisational adaptation occurred although as the chapter argues, by the end of the 1980s such efforts were very much marginal after the parties had re-established their position in government. Chapter four then examines the key social bases of Christian Democratic support and illustrates their long-term decline. It concludes that while such change need not necessarily result in electoral problems, there has been a decline of Christian Democratic partisanship in the electorate in the three countries. Chapters five, six and seven analyse the CDU, QVP and CDA in the 1990s. In each case, Christian Democrats found their position under greater threat than previously although the scale of their problems varied. Chapter eight scrutinises the development of Christian Democratic electoral programmes using the Comparative Manifestos Project dataset. Although it finds some evidence of divergence in the electoral platforms of the parties, there was also a clear increase in the prominence of traditionalist themes in recent years. The thesis argues that Christian Democrats were undermined in the 1990-9 period by unpopular leadership, an unfavourable issue context, intra-party problems and greater levels of party competition in addition to the erosion of socially rooted partisanship. Furthermore, although programmatic change was limited and the essential components of Christian Democratic identity remained in place, there were clear signs of ideological strain in each party with accompanying organisational problems. Contents List of Figures and Tables v Abbreviations vii Acknowledgements IX Chapter 1 - Christian Democratic Parties: origins, essence and party change I. Introduction 1 II. Aims and methodology 3 III. Structure of chapter 1 4 IV. Origins of Christian Democracy 5 V. The essence of Christian Democracy 11 VI. Parties and change 18 VII. Thesis structure 24 Chapter 2 - The Golden Age of Christian Democracy 1945-70 I. Introduction 27 II. Political and electoral developments 28 III. Christian Democratic ideology 40 IV. Party organisation 49 V. Conclusion 55 Chapter 3 - Beyond Halcyon Days 1970-1989 I. Introduction 58 II. Political and electoral developments 59 III. Programmatic developments 71 IV. Organisational developments 84 V. Conclusion 90 Chapter 4 - The Draining Reservoir of Christian Democratic Support I. Introduction 93 II. The Christian Democratic electorate 94 III. Membership 104 IV. Social and economic change 106 V. Political change 117 VI. Conclusion 123 Chapter 5 - The Christian Democratic Union 1990-98 I. Introduction 125 II. Political and electoral developments 127 III. Programmatic developments 143 IV. Organisational developments 151 V. Conclusion 156 Chapter 6 - The Austrian People's Party 1990-99 I. Introduction 158 II. Political and electoral developments 160 III. Programmatic developments 178 IV. Organisational developments 183 111 v. Conclusion 187 Chapter 7 - The COA 1990-98 I. Introduction 190 II. Political and electoral developments 191 III. Programmatic developments 210 IV. Organisational developments 216 V. Conclusion 218 Chapter 8 - Issue Salience in the Manifestos of the COU/CSU, OVP and COA I. Introduction 220 II. Problems with the CMP 221 III. Christian Democratic Parties and the left-right scale 224 IV. Issue Salience by period 232 V. An alternative to the left-right scale 239 VI. Conclusion 250 Chapter 9 - Conclusion: The COU, QVP and COA in the 1990s and beyond: At the crossroads between tradition and adaptation? I. Introduction 253 II. The causes of Christian Democratic decline 254 III. Paralysis or adaptation: Christian Democratic responses to decline 261 IV. Developments since 1998 267 Appendix I National election results in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands 1945-2002 277 Appendix II Post-war governments in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands 279 Appendix III Post-1990 Landtag election results in Germany and Austria 281 Appendix IV Leading National Party Positions in the COU, 6vp and COA 286 Bibliography 288 iv List of Figures Figure 8.1 CDU/CSU and GYP manifestos on a left-right axis (1949-99) 226 Figure 8.2 Dutch confessionals' and CDA manifestos on a left-right axis (1945-98) 227 Figure 8.3 CDU/CSU Manifesto Emphases 241 Figure 8.4 GYP Manifesto Emphases 243 Figure 8.5 KYP Manifesto Emphases 246 Figure 8.6 ARP Manifesto Emphases 247 Figure 8.7 CHU Manifesto Emphases 248 Figure 8.8 CDA Manifesto Emphases 249 List of Tables Table 1.1 A verage results for Christian Democratic parties by decade 2 Table 4.1 CDU/CSU support by denomination and church attendance 95 Table 4.2 GYP support among churchgoers 96 Table 4.3 CDA support by denomination and attendance 96 Table 4.4 CDU/CSU support by occupation 98 Table 4.5 GYP support by occupation 99 Table 4.6 The class structure of CDA support 100 Table 4.7 CDA middle class vote by union membership 100 Table 4.8 CDU/CSU support by age group 101 Table 4.9 CDU/CSU support by gender 101 Table 4.10 GYP support by age group 102 Table 4.11 GYP support by gender 102 Table 4.12 CDA support by age group 103 Table 4.13 Structure of CDU Membership 104 Table 4.14 Structure of GYP membership 105 Table 4.15 Structure of CDA membership 105 Table 4.16 Denominational membership in Germany 1980-1996 107 Table 4.17 Non-church members in Germany 1980-1998 107 Table 4.18 Frequency of church attendance in Germany 1980-1998 108 Table 4.19 Denominational membership in Austria 1971-2001 109 Table 4.20 Weekly Church attendance in Austria 1950-98 109 Table 4.21 Denominational membership in the Netherlands 1971-98 110 Table 4.22 Weekly church attendance in the Netherlands 1966-86 110 Table 4.23 Church attendance in the Netherlands 1998 III Table 4.24 Employment Structure in Austria, West Germany and the Netherlands 112 Table 4.25 Demographic Balance in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands 1960-99 114 Table 4.26 CDU/CSU support among older voters (west only) 115 Table 4.27 GYP support among older voters 115 Table 4.28 CDA support among older voters 116 Table 4.29 CDU/CSU party identifiers 1977-99 119 Table 4.30 GYP party identifiers 1976-94 119 Table 4.31 CDA party identification 1971-98 120 Table 4.32 CDU Membership 1955-98 121 Table 4.33 GYP Membership 1949-94 122 Table 4.34 Membership of the ARP, CHU, KYP and the CDA 1950-98 123 v Table 8.1 Left-right scale based on manifesto data 224 Table 8.2 Manifesto left-right placement: averages by period 230 Table 8.3 Ranking of CDU/CSU average manifesto emphases by period 232 Table 8.4 CDU/CSU issue salience in elections in the 1990s 233 Table 8.5 Ranking ofDVP average manifesto emphases by period 234 Table 8.6 DVP issue salience in elections in the 1990s 235 Table 8.7 Ranking of Dutch confessional parties' average manifesto emphases by 235 period Table 8.8 Ranking of CD A average manifesto emphases by period 236 Table 8.9 CDA issue salience in Elections in the 1990s 237 Table 8.10 Construction of free market liberalism, social-economic interventionism 239 and social-cultural traditionalism Table 8.11 Structure ofCDU/CSU manifestos: Averages by period and trends