A thesis submitted to the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy of Central European University in part fulfillment of the Degree of Master of Science The Aydar-Arnasay lakes system: formation, functions and future water management scenarios Kristina RODINA CEU eTD Collection July, 2010 Budapest Notes on copyright and the ownership of intellectual property rights: (1) Copyright in text of this thesis rests with the Author. Copies (by any process) either in full, or of extracts, may be made only in accordance with instructions given by the Author and lodged in the Central European University Library. Details may be obtained from the Librarian. This page must form part of any such copies made. Further copies (by any process) of copies made in accordance with such instructions may not be made without the permission (in writing) of the Author. (2) The ownership of any intellectual property rights which may be described in this thesis is vested in the Central European University, subject to any prior agreement to the contrary, and may not be made available for use by third parties without the written permission of the University, which will prescribe the terms and conditions of any such agreement. (3) For bibliographic and reference purposes this thesis should be referred to as: Rodina, K. 2010. The Aydar-Arnasay lakes system: formation, functions and future water management scenarios. Master of Science thesis, Central European University, Budapest. Further information on the conditions under which disclosures and exploitation may take place is available from the Head of the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University. CEU eTD Collection ii Author’s declaration No portion of the work referred to in this thesis has been submitted in support of an application for another degree or qualification of this or any other university or other institute of learning. <candidate’s signature> Kristina RODINA CEU eTD Collection iii CENTRAL EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY ABSTRACT OF THESIS submitted by: Kristina RODINA for the degree of Master of Science and entitled: The Aydar-Arnasay lakes system: formation, functions and future water management scenarios. Month and Year of submission: July, 2010. The current development of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system (AALS), which is one of the remarkable examples of the human-induced ecosystems, depends on numerous political and environmental factors. On the one hand, the political tensions and disagreements between Central Asian republics alter the implementation of the coordinated water policy in terms of agreed water discharges to the Aydar-Arnasay lakes. On the other hand, forecasting change of the regional climate has an uncertain influence on these lakes. The main scientific methods applied in the present research are scenario approach, fostering the finding of alternative ways of the AALS future development; application of GIS technologies, contributing to the analysis of the AALS change dynamics in past; and environmental modeling assisting for simulation of the various development ways of the AALS future. In order to achieve the main goal of the study which is identification of the most probable scenario of the AALS future development, a set of various water management scenarios has been elaborated in accordance with a level of regional cooperation between republics and significance of climate change. They are “Ready for Challenge”, “Fall Behind”, “Promising Future”, and “Business as Usual”. Then, the AALS model aimed to test these scenarios has been created using STELLA software. Finally, the model created has been simulated for each water management scenario and results illustrating the change of the AALS volume in 2010-2040 have been obtained. It was found that two of the elaborated scenarios, i.e. “Ready for Challenge” and “Promising Future” are unrealistic for the AALS development whereas another two, i.e. “Fall Behind” and “Business as Usual” stand big chances of being illustrative and plausible for the lakes’ future. CEU eTD Collection Keywords: Aydar-Arnasay lakes system, Uzbekistan, water discharges, Chardara reservoir, water management scenario, environmental modeling, Toktogul Reservoir, regional cooperation, climate change, iv Acknowledgements First of all, I would like to thank you my dearest family for supporting and believing in me during my studies in the Central European University. Then I would like to express my gratitude to my boyfriend for his incredible patience and long distance love. Also, I would like to thank you to my supervisor Professor Ruben Mnatsakanian for his proposal of interesting and challenging research topic and guidance during the research. I am also especially grateful to Victor Lagutov for his close cooperation and priceless advices during the thesis writing, invaluable support and inspiration. Special thanks to my best CEU friends, Monika and Sultan, dorm neighbors and basketball and running partners who supported me all the time and made this year one of the best in my life. Finally, I want to thank Eszter Timar for her kind assistance in improving the academic quality of the thesis and constant collaboration during this year. CEU eTD Collection v Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Research ............................................................................................................. 2 1.2.1 Problem statement ...................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 Research aim .............................................................................................. 2 1.2.3 Research objectives .................................................................................... 3 1.3 Thesis structure .................................................................................................. 3 2. LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................................... 5 2.1 Preconditions of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes formation ........................................ 6 2.1.1 The Aral Sea desiccation ........................................................................... 6 2.1.2 Dissolution of the USSR ............................................................................ 8 2.2 Aydar-Arnasay lakes as a new subject of scientific inquiry .............................. 9 2.2.1 Overview of the AALS hydrological research conducted ....................... 10 2.2.1.1 Examination of the AALS thermal regime ............................................. 10 2.2.1.2 Seasonal fluctuation of water temperature ........................................... 11 2.2.1.3 Diurnal temperature fluctuations .......................................................... 11 2.2.2 Mineralization as the one of the major research issue ............................. 12 2.2.2.1 The main components of the AALS salt balance ................................... 12 2.2.2.2 Hydrochemical regime of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes .............................. 13 2.2.3 Overview of the AALS current ecological conditions ............................. 14 2.2.3.1 The AALS water quality: experts’ conclusions ...................................... 15 2.2.4 Evolution of the fish farming ................................................................... 16 2.2.4.1 Fisheries development in the period of 1960-1990 ............................... 16 2.2.4.2 The collapse of the USSR: the AALS fisheries fate ............................... 18 2.2.5 Main conclusions ..................................................................................... 19 2.3 ICT as a tool for assisting environmental science ............................................ 20 2.3.1 Use of modeling ....................................................................................... 20 2.3.2 Successful worldwide projects assisted by environmental modeling ...... 21 2.3.2.1 Dynamic ecological-economic modeling for regional planning in the Brussels-Capital region ................................................................................................ 22 2.3.2.2 Mediterranean example: MODULUS project ....................................... 23 2.3.2.3 The integration of ecological and economic modeling to manage water quality problems in Australia ....................................................................................... 23 CEU eTD Collection 2.3.2.4 STREAM instrument: use of a spatial distributed water balance model 23 2.3.2.5 MULINO-DSS project: sustainable use of water resources ................. 24 2.3.2.6 FLUMAGIS project on water management in Germany ....................... 25 2.3.2.7 RIVERTWIN project .............................................................................. 25 2.3.3 New way of thinking: scenario approach in environmental science ....... 26 2.3.3.1 Scenario approach in scientific publications ........................................ 27 vi 2.3.4 GIS technologies ...................................................................................... 28 2.3.4.1 Definition ............................................................................................... 28 2.3.4.2 GIS functionality .................................................................................... 29 2.3.4.3 GIS technologies as a tool for environmental research: