AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OF Margaret C. Myers for the degree of Master of Science in Radiation Health Physics presented upon July 13, 2012 Title: Use of GIS Software to Map Contaminant Distributions and Determine Integrated Dose for Purposes of Assessing Impact to Biota Abstract approved: Kathryn A. Higley The objective of this research was to estimate the radiological impact on various non- human biotas by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear power plant radiation release resulting from Japan’s tsunami in March 2011 consistent with the recent recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Soil concentration data given by Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology in Japan (MEXT) were used to approximate doses to various organisms. Cumulative doses and dose rates were plotted in ArcGIS 10, geographic information system (GIS) software, and Kriging interpolations were performed between the sampling points. The conclusion of this preliminary investigation that there appears to be the potential for adverse biological impacts of the studied biota; however, the magnitude of the impact will require further investigation. ©Copyright by Margaret C. Myers July 15, 2012 All Rights Reserved Use of GIS Software to Map Contaminant Distributions and Determine Integrated Dose for Purposes of Assessing Impact to Biota by Margaret C. Myers A THESIS submitted to Oregon State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Presented July 13, 2012 Commencement June 2013 Master of Science thesis of Margaret C. Myers presented on July, 13 2012. APPROVED: Major Professor, representing Radiation Health Physics Head of the Department of Nuclear Engineering and Radiation Health Physics Dean of the Graduate School I understand that my thesis will become part of the permanent collection of Oregon State University libraries. My signature below authorizes release of my thesis to any reader upon request. Margaret C. Myers, Author ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank my husband R. Michael Myers and my children Katrina K. and Sarah M. Myers for always supporting me and for enduring my absence. I would also like to thank my parents who knew that I would make it this far. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................1 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................5 2.1 Geographic Information Systems and Radioecology ............................................5 2.2 Geostatistics ..........................................................................................................5 2.2.1 Inverse Distance Weight Interpolation ..........................................................8 2.2.2 Variograms .....................................................................................................9 2.2.3 Kriging .........................................................................................................13 2.3 Radiation Effects to Terrestrial Non-Human Biota.............................................16 2.4 Reference Animals and Plants.............................................................................19 2.5 ERICA Approach ................................................................................................20 2.6 Radiological Studies for Nonhuman Biota in Fukushima ...................................23 3 METHODS ................................................................................................................25 3.1 Data compilation .................................................................................................25 3.2 Using ERICA ......................................................................................................26 3.3 Inverse Distance Weighted Interpolation ............................................................28 3.4 Creating the semivariogram ................................................................................29 3.5 Radiological effects to biota. ...............................................................................30 4 RESULTS ..................................................................................................................32 4.1 Soil Concentrations .............................................................................................32 4.2 Cumulative Doses and Dose Rates......................................................................35 4.3 Kriging Interpolation Errors for Dose Rates of Organisms ................................44 5 DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................49 6 CONCLUSIONS........................................................................................................51 7 RECOMMENDATION FOR FUTURE WORK.......................................................51 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..............................................................................................................53 8 APPENDICES ...........................................................................................................57 APPENDIX A: PARAMETERS FROM ERICA .............................................................58 APPENDIX B: DATA ......................................................................................................61 APPENDIX C: MAPS .....................................................................................................115 APPENDIX D: FREDERICA DATABASE ...................................................................146 APPENDIX E: JAPAN’S ANIMALS .............................................................................187 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page Figure 2.1 Variogram Model .............................................................................................. 9 Figure 2.2 Semivariogam Example.................................................................................. 11 Figure 2.3 Common Variogram Models ........................................................................... 12 Figure 3.1 WWF Ecoregions in Japan .............................................................................. 31 Figure 4.1 Radioactive Soil Concentrations for All Sampling Points Graph ................... 32 Figure 4.2 Map of June Cs-137 Soil Concentrations ....................................................... 33 Figure 4.3 Map of June I-131 Soil Concentrations ........................................................... 33 Figure 4.4 Map of March 2011 Soil Sampling Points ..................................................... 35 Figure 4.5 Map of April 2011 Soil Sampling Points ........................................................ 37 Figure 4.6 Map of May 2011 Soil Sampling Points Map ................................................. 38 Figure 4.7 Map of June 2011 Soil Sample Points ............................................................. 40 Figure 4.8 June Flying Insects Dose Rate Map ................................................................ 42 Figure 4.9 June Deer Dose Rate Map ............................................................................... 42 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 2.1 LD 50/30 for various organisms………………………………………………20 Table 2.2 ERICA and ICRP List of Names for Reference Organisms…………………..23 Table 3.1 Radionuclide Half-Lives………………………………………………………26 Table 3.2 Reference Organisms Average Lifespan……………………………………...27 Table 3.3 Variograms used for generating maps………………………………………...29 Table 4.1 Kriging Errors for Cs-137 Soil Concentrations……………………………….34 Table 4.2 IDW Errors for Cs-137 Soil Concentrations…………………………………..34 Table 4.3 Kriging Errors for I-131 Soil Concentrations…………………………………34 Table 4.4 Estimated Median Cumulative Doses for Reference Organisms……………...35 Table 4.5 Estimated Maximum Cumulative Doses for Reference Organisms…………..36 Table 4.6 Estimated March Dose Rates to Reference Organisms……………………….36 Table 4.7 Estimated April Dose Rates to Reference Organisms………………………...37 Table 4.8 Estimated May Dose Rates to Reference Organisms…………………………38 Table 4.9 Estimated May Dose Rates to Reference Organisms (Continued)……………39 Table 4.10 Estimated June Dose Rates to Reference Organisms………………………..40 Table 4.11 Estimated June Dose Rates to Reference Organisms (Continued)………......41 Table 4.12 Median Cumulative Dose Kriging Errors……………………………………43 Table 4.13 Maximum Cumulative Dose Kriging Errors………………………………...43 Table 4.14 Amphibians Dose Rate Errors……………………………………………….44 Table 4.15 Birds Kriging Dose Rate Errors……………………………………………...44 Table 4.16 Bird Eggs Kriging Dose Rate Errors………………………………………...45 LIST OF TABLES (Continued) Table Page Table 4.17 Flying Insects Kriging Dose Rate Errors………………………………….…45 Table 4.18 Grasses & Herbs Kriging Dose Rate Errors…………………………………46 Table 4.19 Large Mammals Kriging Dose Rate Errors………………………………….46 Table 4.20 Small Mammals Kriging Dose Rate Errors………………………………….47 Table 4.21 Soil Invertebrates Kriging Dose Rate Errors………………………………...47 Table 4.22 Trees Kriging Dose Rate Errors……………………………………………...48 LIST OF APPENDIX FIGURES Figure Page Figure C.1 Soil Concentration Maps for Cs-137 using IDW Interpolation………….....116 Figure C.2 Soil Concentration Maps for Cs-137 using Kriging Interpolation………....117 Figure C.3 Soil Concentration Maps for Iodine-131…………………………………...118 Figure C.4 Median March Integrated Doses for Amphibians…………………………..119 Figure C.5 Median March Integrated Doses for Birds…………………………………120