ISSUES PAPER ASSESSMENT OF MARKET PRICES Eugene Ezebilo FOR RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES Lucy Hamago Charles Yala IN PORT MORESBY: DO LOCATION AND PROPERTY www.nri.org.pg www.nri.org.pg TYPE MATTER? Issues Paper 19 • Trends in the supply and price of residential properties were explored. • Key • More houses were available in areas where people with medium to high incomes live. Abstract • Housing and land prices were higher in and near the central business district than Points in other areas. • in driving housing prices up. • more accessible, reduce import duties on building materials, train more people in property development, and support research on uses of local building materials. May 2016 This page is intentionally left blank ISSUES PAPER DecemberIssues Paper 2015 19, May 2016 ASSESSMENT OF MARKET PRICES FOR RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY IN PORT MORESBY: DO LOCATION AND PROPERTY TYPE MATTER? as number of rooms, lot size, and housing type (detached By E. Ezebilo, L. Hamago, or attached); and community attributes, such as population and characteristics of neighbourhoods and accessibility to and C. Yala places of work. People’s preferences for these attributes often his Issues Paper provides a snapshot of residential differ. For example, in a study of the effect of the form of property market trends in Port Moresby. It reports housing development on neighbourhood satisfaction, Kear- on the supply and prices of residential properties. ney (2006) found that people have negative feelings towards T high-density development due to the resulting unattractive It examines whether location and property type influence the prices, and it discusses possible strategies for promoting landscape and obstruction of views. an efficient housing market. The data were obtained from Many factors have been identified that influence property advertised property prices in Port Moresby in The Nation- prices. For example, studies of affordable housing delivery al newspaper from February 2014 to February 2015. It was in Nigeria (Nubi 2008) and regulation and the rise in hous- found that Boroko had the highest number of houses ad- ing prices in Manhattan in the United States (Glaeser et al. vertised, and Gordons had the highest number of blocks 2005) found that shortages in the supply of land and hous- of land. The highest average weekly rental price for a three ing relative to demand push up housing prices. In a study bedroom home was 3,948 Papua New Guinea Kina (PGK), of housing supply and demand in Nigeria, Makinde (2014) or USD1,316. The highest sales price was PGK 6,221,000 found that high land allocation costs, high cost of building (USD2,073,667). The highest sales price for one hectare materials, and lack of skilled personnel also push up housing of land was PGK 29,854,000 (USD9,951,333). It was also prices. Other factors include accessibility to the city centre found that properties in or near the central business district and amenities. In a study of the effect of location on hous- (CBD), including in Town (also known as Downtown) and ing prices in Hong Kong, Tse (2002) found that the closer Boroko, had the highest rental and sales prices. Rental and a house is to the city centre and amenities, the higher the sales prices of standalone houses were higher than those of price, and as house prices increase, low-income households apartments in or near the CBD, but this was not so for areas tend to move to locations with inferior accessibility, where far from the CBD such as 9 Mile and 8 Mile. To promote an prices are lower. Environmental factors such as characteristics efficient housing market, it is important to put more effort of the landscape where the house is located influence housing toward making customary land more accessible for develop- prices. For example, in a Dutch study of the effects of trees, ment, reviewing import duties on building materials, train- water, and open spaces on house prices, Luttik (2000) found ing more people on skills related to property development, that the closer a house is to water or open space, the higher supporting research on use of available local materials for its price will be. Housing prices also increase with the num- building houses, and providing basic infrastructure in areas ber of bedrooms and bathrooms and the size of the rooms, where it is lacking. Our findings will provide policy-makers as well as the newer the house, the higher will be the price of and planners with more understanding of possible ways of the house (Zeitz et al. 2008). designing and planning a more sustainable housing policy that meets societal preferences and demands. The residents of Port Moresby are heterogeneous, and so are their preferences and demands. Thus, the sales price of a house is arrived at when the house supplied by the seller meets Introduction the demand of a potential buyer to produce an equilibrium A house is a multidimensional good that can be differenti- price. However, the price fluctuates with time. It might rise ated into a bundle of attributes that differ in quantity and above the equilibrium price when there is a shortage in the quality (Can 1990). These include physical attributes, such housing supply and drop below the equilibrium price when The National Research Institute (NRI) is Papua New Guinea’s leading think tank on public policy and development related issues and trends. Issues Papers provide timely inputs to ongoing policy debates and discussions in Papua New Guinea. This and other Issues Papers are available from www.nri.org.pg. there is an excess supply of houses relative to demand. House The PNG government has introduced several initiatives that sellers often face a trade-off between the time it takes to sell promote access to housing, such as the Land and Affordable a house and the price received (Anglin et al. 2003). If they Housing Program and the First Home Ownership Scheme set too high a price, they risk having the house on the market in partnership with the Bank of South Pacific. However, the for a long period. If the price is too low, they may have a Independent Consumer and Competition Commission has quick sale but receive less than they could have received with advocated the development of a competitive real estate and better market exposure. For the housing market to function property market (ICCC 2012). In a study of institutions for properly, property developers need to supply properties that improving access to land for settler housing, Chand and Yala consumers want and are willing to pay for. (2012) found that the development of the informal housing market is changing the landscape of Port Moresby. More- Previous research over, the National Strategic Plan Taskforce (2009) predicted in Papua New Guinea Vision 2050 that when around 3 per- In a recent study of property price movements in Port Mores- cent more customary land is made available for use in the by, Endekra et al. (2015) found that sales prices for all prop- formal sector, the PNG economy will grow at an additional erty types had a rising trend, and rental prices tended to be 1.2 percent each year. The document also highlighted the im- stable. They also found that houses informally developed in portance of improved infrastructure networks and efficient unplanned areas are often advertised mainly for rentals. Our delivery of public goods and services, as well as tariff reduc- research has a few similarities to their study, especially in data tion and empowerment of people through education. collection procedures; however, there are several differences. We hope that this study will build on the earlier research and Port Moresby is the largest and one of the fastest-growing improve on it where appropriate. cities in PNG, and has the country’s largest housing market. Many people have continued to migrate from rural areas to Endekra et al. (2015) focused mainly on a general overview the city in search of jobs and other opportunities to better of property prices, which makes the findings difficult to use their lives. As more and more people make Port Moresby for comparison. We attempted to fill this knowledge gap their home, the social, economic, and environmental chal- by using units that allow for comparison of property prices lenges associated with housing need to be addressed. Thus between different suburbs of Port Moresby, and potentially there is a need to develop an efficient and effective framework other cities in Papua New Guinea (PNG). We also explored for the housing market in Port Moresby in order to achieve the supply of residential properties in various areas of Port sustainable housing and urban development. This will pro- Moresby, as well as strategies to increase the supply of hous- vide policy-makers and planners with more understanding of ing in Port Moresby, topics that Endekra et al. (2015) did possible ways of designing a more sustainable housing policy not address. that meets societal preferences and demands. Another key difference lies in the timing of the research. Endekra et al. (2015) carried out their study during the con- The aim of this paper struction phase of the PNG liquefied natural gas project, This study examined the supply and pricing of residential while our study was conducted after its completion, from properties in Port Moresby and investigated whether prop- 2014 to 2015. It has been argued that the construction phase erty type and location influenced pricing. This paper reports of this project was a major driver of increased activity in the on its findings and suggests possible strategies for increas- Port Moresby property market (Endekra et al., 2015), and ing the supply of housing in a sustainable manner.