10 April 17, 2016 News & Analysis Lebanon Hezbollah expands presence in Syria James Bruce army with a sophisticated com- mand-and-control structure, an advanced telecommunications Beirut network, tanks, artillery and other heavy weapons able to wage a war ne of the big winners in of manoeuvre in conjunction with the Syrian war is Hez- other forces. This critical develop- bollah, the Lebanese ment has not been lost on Israel. Shia movement that has Stratfor postulated that “Hezbol- long been Iran’s most lah’s attempts to expand and so- Ovalued proxy in the Sunni-dom- lidify its control” in western Syria inated region. There are growing along Lebanon’s largely mountain- signs that the Party of God is pre- ous north-eastern border “will paring to expand its zone of influ- only increase in the future… The ence into Syria itself and, backed base near Qusayr, like other antici- by its growing military power, as- pated positions in Syria, is part of sert its domination of Lebanon. Hezbollah’s future strategy in the “Like other foreign and domes- country.” tic actors, Hezbollah has seized Satellite imagery indicates the on the Syrian civil war to improve Qusayr base will be extensive and its position in the country and the heavily defended. All this indicates surrounding region,” the US-based a permanency that underscores global intelligence consultancy Hezbollah’s efforts to hold ground Stratfor said in an April 6th analy- inside Syria and create a buffer sis. zone to prevent jihadist forces The party, established in 1982 as from encroaching into Lebanon, the first of Iran’s Shia proxy groups now a Hezbollah-dominated out- and now its most powerful ally, is post for Iran in the gas-rich eastern setting up military bases in Syria Mediterranean and poses a direct after playing a leading role in en- threat to neighbouring Israel. suring the survival of President “Along with its patron Iran, Hez- Bashar Assad’s Damascus regime at bollah recognises that Syria’s war is a cost of about 1,000 of its fighters an opportunity to establish a strong killed and many more wounded. position near the country’s border with Lebanon,” Stratfor said. The Qusayr base The Qusayr base underlines the underlines the breadth breadth of Hezbollah’s strategy, A 2014 file picture shows the funeral of a Lebanese Hezbollah commander in Baalbek, Lebanon, after of Hezbollah’s which includes preparing for the he was killed during a battle for Qusayr. worst, such as the possibility that strategy, which Assad may be deposed. If that hap- includes preparing for pens, the Syrian bases will play “a bases will contain such formida- doubtedly the ultimate target of transferring advanced weapons to the worst: The fall of significant role in protecting the ble firepower but what is evident Iran’s expanding influence in the the Lebanese group. Israel claims Assad. militant group, and Lebanon as is that Iran, Hezbollah’s patron, is Levant. Hezbollah’s acquisition of military a whole, from the threats it may complicit in this endeavour. Some Reports say the Qusayr complex skills and heavy weapons in the This is clearly being done with face”, Stratfor observed. sources say officers of Iran’s Is- houses long-range missiles, includ- Syrian war makes it more threat- Tehran’s approval, with Assad Iran and Hezbollah have long lamic Revolutionary Guards Corps ing Iranian Shahab-1 and Shahab-2 ening than it has ever been and is going along with it, willingly or sought to control the Syrian-held (IRGC) frequently inspect the ballistic systems and Fateh-110 preparing to have to fight Hezbol- unwillingly. The most important portion of the Golan Heights in emerging base at Qusayr. Strat- weapons. This has not been con- lah within the Jewish state itself in of these bases, for the moment southern Syria, from which Ira- for maintains the IRGC groups are firmed by satellite imagery. Hez- their next war. anyway, appears to be the town of nian missiles could threaten Israel, “treating the base as an Iranian as- bollah is known to have Fateh-110s Hezbollah’s drive to construct Qusayr in western Syria, close to which has occupied the western set”. in its arsenal — Israel says it num- bases in Syria coincides with an the Lebanese border. sector of the volcanic plateau since This may be the principal pur- bers 150,000 missiles — but has not expected offensive along the Leba- Qusayr has a special mean- 1967. pose of the Qusayr complex and been reported to have Shahabs. nese border, where for three years ing for Hezbollah. It was there in Satellite imagery of the Qusayr those expected to be constructed. “While these missiles could it has been battling Sunni jihadists June 2013 that the Lebanese group base, along with reports from Arab This implies that Iran, like Russia, prove crucial in the event of a of al-Nusra Front and the Islamic fought its first major battle of the sources, indicate that Hezbollah plans a long-term deployment in large-scale Israeli ground offensive State as well. war and drove out Syrian rebel plans to deploy heavy artillery and Syria that could influence peace against Hezbollah in Lebanon,” forces to secure its supply routes some of its estimated 60 Russian- talks under way in Geneva and Stratfor observed, “they are not James Bruce has written from Damascus. built T-72 tanks — weapons pro- have significant strategic implica- beyond the reach of the Israeli air extensively on Middle Eastern Hezbollah has matured and vided by Syria or Iran during the tions across the Arab world as it force.” security issues for publications expanded from being a guerrilla war — along with short-range undergoes a violent reshaping of Israeli warplanes have repeat- such as Jane’s Intelligence Review group fighting a small-unit war Katyusha rockets. the political, ethnic and sectarian edly attacked Hezbollah arms and Jane’s Defence Weekly. He against Israel to a conventional It is not clear whether other landscape. Israel, of course, is un- dumps and convoys from Syria lives in Beirut. The strange case of Michel Samaha A terror plot serves as an ugly example of Lebanon’s troubled relations with the Syrian regime Sami Nader Lebanon and all of Syria if his re- neighbouring Lebanon. gime collapsed. On the Christian side in Lebanon, This was not the first time an things do not bode well, either. Beirut Assad regime faced the charge of Many Christians say they feel they playing the arsonist-fireman game are disenfranchised from their po- any people were — light the flame with the hope of litical rights, namely a fair represen- shocked when former being assigned the task of extin- tation in the parliament. Lebanese Information guishing it. Their leaders missed the oppor- minister and Syrian During the Lebanese civil war, tunity to bridge the widening gap ally Michel Samaha Hafez Assad, Bashar’s father, was between Sunnis and Shias. Instead Mwas sentenced to four-and-a-half accused by many Lebanese of at- of rising up to the challenge to bro- years in prison in 2015 and then re- tempting to preside over their ker a dialogue between their fellow leased for having served “most of destiny and of inciting divisions citizens, asserting that Lebanon was his time in prison”. among political factions and reli- a land of conviviality, they arranged Even supporters of the “resist- gious groups to present his position themselves into opposing camps. ance axis” were startled by the le- as broker of peace and guardian of Today they are united in a scheme, niency of the military court’s deci- civil order. the promotion of “Christian rights”, sion. It was a blow to the judiciary In 2006, during the troubles that that would fuel sectarian divisions. and a slap to the state of Lebanon. led to violent sectarian conflict in So there is little wonder that, fac- Iraq, wasn’t Bashar Assad accused This was not the ing political and popular pressure, Former Lebanese minister Michel Samaha (C) at his home in by the Iraqi prime minister of lend- first time an Assad a court quashed the sentence and Beirut, upon his realease last January. ing support to terrorists and al-Qae- regime faced the ordered a retrial. da-linked groups in Iraq? charge of playing the Lebanon’s Military Tribunal of to trigger sectarian violence in Leb- engulfing Syria. In 2012 the United More recently, haven’t there been arsonist-fireman Cassation on April 8th sentenced anon. States, United Kingdom and a num- numerous reports indicating that Samaha to 13 years in prison with The plan allegedly included as- ber of Arab countries viewed the top Islamic State (ISIS) leaders were game. hard labour, a decision that Saad sassinations of Christian leaders Syrian regime as a brutal dictator- radicalised in prisons controlled by Hariri, a former prime minister and and others who opposed Syrian ship that did not hesitate to quell Bashar Assad’s regime and released In a nutshell, Samaha was sen- leader of the Future Movement, President Bashar Assad and bomb- peaceful demonstrators with unim- at a critical moment of the Syrian tenced. The plot foiled. But sectari- said “corrects” the previous verdict. ings at Iftar meals, when Muslims aginable violence. revolution? anism remains on the rise in Leba- The charges against Samaha were end their daily Ramadan fast. Video Failing to address the basic de- Since the 2005 assassination of non and most of the Arab world. far from being trivial or unsubstan- and audio recordings depicted Sa- mands of a population for more former Lebanese prime minister tiated.