BANK OF SLOVENIA EUROSYSTEM MONTHLY BULLETIN July - August 2010 Vol 19 No. 7 - 8 BANKA SLOVENIJE BANK OF SLOVENIA EUROSYSTEM Published by: BANKA SLOVENIJE Slovenska 35, 1000 Ljubljana Slovenija tel.: +386 (1) 4719000 fax.: +386 (1) 2515516 E-mail: [email protected] http://www.bsi.si/ SWIFT: BSLJ SI 2X Editorial Board: Mr. Janez FABIJAN, Vice Governor Mr. Matjaž NOČ, Financial Statistics Mr. Damjan KOZAMERNIK, Analysis and Research Mr. Tomaž KOŠAK, Financial Stability Mr. Ernest ERMENC, Accounting Mr. Neven BORAK, Advisor to the Governor Mrs. Danica PRELOVŠEK, Advisor to the Governor Mr. Franc DRENOVEC, Advisor to the Governor Printed by: Tiskarna Radovljica d.o.o. Publication and other public use of data from this publication is permitted subject to statement of the source. Publication is available on the Web. ISSN 1318-0770 (print) ISSN 1518-209X (online) Ta publikacija je na voljo tudi v slovenščini. 2 Monthly Bulletin, July - August 2010 BANKA SLOVENIJE BANK OF SLOVENIA EUROSYSTEM Important information Monthly Bulletin of Bank of Slovenia has been, from the number 2-3 for February-March 2007, volume 16, partly changed in its content and form. The preannouncement of the change has been published on the web page of the Bank of Slovenia in January 2007. The main changes are as follows: · The beginning of publishing the statistical data of value, which refer to the period after the entry to the euro area, in the official domestic currency - euro. The data of value for the previous period will continue to be published in tolars, as the official Slovenian currency in that period. The data in euros are in the tables separated from the data in tolars by line. · The change in the concept of the international monetary reserves because of the entry to the Economic and monetary union. Among the Slovenian international monetary reserves after the entry to the euro area, compared to the period before, there are no longer assets in euro as well as the claims on the euro area residents. More explanation is available in: “The statistical treatment of the international monetary reserves at the entry of Slovenia to the euro area” (slovenian), in the chapter Methodological information on the internet page: http://www.bsi.si/en/financial-data.asp?MapaId=64. · The change in the presentation of the currency in the circulation to the standards of the euro area. · The accommodation of the balance sheet of Bank of Slovenia to its activities in the framework of the Eurosystem. · The beginning of the publishing of the interest rates of the euro area money market as well as the publishing of the whole set of the interest rates of the Monetary financial institutions according to the ECB’s methodology. · The beginning of the publishing of the financial accounts statistics in the new chapter. · Colour separation of the individual statistical chapters, to alleviate search and because of the link of the chapters to the specialised publications. More information can be found in Methodological Notes in the Bank of Slovenia monthly Bulletin. The entry to the euro area (on 1.1.2007) caused a break in the time series of the statistical tables in the Monthly bulletin in cases where the “currency” is an attribute. An expected reclassification takes place, for example of the stock of outstanding loans in euros from the time series of “foreign currency” before the introduction to the time series of “domestic currency” after the intro- duction of euro. To enable easier reconstruction of this change, the shares of the Euro amounts in stocks of the foreign currency in the tables 1.3, 1.4, 1.5 and 1.6 on 31.12.2004, 31.12.2005 and 31.12.2006 are published in the chapter Methodological notes. Monthly Bulletin, July - August 2010 3 BANKA SLOVENIJE BANK OF SLOVENIA EUROSYSTEM 4 Monthly Bulletin, July - August 2010 BANKA SLOVENIJE BANK OF SLOVENIA EUROSYSTEM TABLE OF CONTENTS REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA: General Information 6 I. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS 1-22 1. International Environment 2. Economic Activity and Labour Market 3. Price Developments 4. Balance of Payments 5. Public Finance 6. Banking System 7. Domestic Financial Markets II. STATISTICAL TABLES 1 Money and Financial Institutions 3 Financial Markets and Payment Systems 28 Balance of Payments and External Position 51 Public Finance 83 Financial Accounts 90 Non-Financial Accounts and General Economic Statistics 98 III. BANKING INSTITUTIONS IN SLOVENIA 1 VI. NOTES ON METHODOLOGY 1 Review of the links 25 Advance release calendar 27 Legend: - no occurence ... not available . provisional or estimated * corrected data / average 0 value less than 0.5 1,2,3,... footnote, explained in Notes Methology n.a. not applicable Sums of part figures may differ from totals due to roundings. The data in euros and the data in tolars are separated with line. Monthly Bulletin, July - August 2010 5 BANKA SLOVENIJE BANK OF SLOVENIA EUROSYSTEM REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA: GENERAL INFORMATION Date or period of Measured in: data: Area 20,273 km2 2009 Population 2,046,976 number 12.31.2009 Population growth 0.14 % 12.31.2009 Population density 101.0 number / km2 12.31.2009 Population of City Community Ljubljana 279,653 number 12.31.2009 Origin of value added: 2009 Agriculture 2.1 % Industry 23.8 % Construction 7.6 % Services 66.5 % Total 100.0 % GDP real annual change -8.1 % 2009 Industrial production annual change 10.4 % June, 2010 Total employment annual change -2.3 % June, 2010 Unemployment rate (ILO definition) 7.1 % Apr. - Jun., 2010 Annual inflation rate 2.3 % August, 2010 General government: revenue 44.4 % BDP 2009 surplus/deficit -5.5 % BDP 2009 Trade balance 36.8 mio EUR June, 2010 BOP current account 104.4 mio EUR June, 2010 International reserves 820.4 mio EUR 07.31.2010 Foreign exchange reserves 439.6 mio EUR 07.31.2010 Net foreign debt 11,293 mio EUR 06.30.2010 Gross foreign debt 41,943 mio EUR 06.30.2010 Currency unit since January 2007: Euro (EUR) 1EUR = 239.64 SIT 6 Monthly Bulletin, July - August 2010 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BANKA SLOVENIJE BANK OF SLOVENIA EUROSYSTEM I. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS I. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS 1. International Environment 2. Economic Activity and Labour Market 3. Price Developments 4. Balance of Payments 5. Public Finance 6. Banking System 7. Domestic Financial Markets Monthly Bulletin, July - August 2010 1-I. BANKA SLOVENIJE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BANK OF SLOVENIA EUROSYSTEM I.-2 Monthly Bulletin, July - August 2010 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BANKA SLOVENIJE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BANK OF SLOVENIA BANKAEUROSYSTEM SLOVENIJE BANK OF SLOVENIA EUROSYSTEM I. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS I. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS 1. International Environment 2. Economic Activity and Labour Market 3. Price Developments 4. Balance of Payments 5. Public Finance 6. Banking System 7. Domestic Financial Markets Monthly Bulletin, July - August 2009 1-I. Monthly Bulletin, July - August 2010 1-I. BILTEN-Uvod2-ANG.p65 1 2.9.2009, 8:49 BANKA SLOVENIJE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BANK OF SLOVENIA EUROSYSTEM I.-2 Monthly Bulletin, July - August 2010 Economic growth in the second quarter was higher than expected in the euro area, but below expec- tations in the US. The main factor in the current rate of economic growth in the euro area of 1% was Germany’s GDP, which recorded growth of 2.2%. The current rate of economic growth in the US was 0.4% in the second quarter, less than Consensus’s June forecast. The lower growth in the US was primarily the result of a negative contribution to GDP made by net trade. High unemployment and large fiscal deficits still keep uncertainties about robustness of global economic growth on high levels. The current rate of growth in domestic GDP stood at over 1% in the second quarter, primarily as a result of high growth in foreign demand and the renewal of inventories. Faster growth in foreign orders in the early part of the year was followed by a sharp increase in industrial production and exports, which had a beneficial impact on growth in transportation, storage and communications. The increase in imports, intermediate goods in particular, was partly reflected in the renewal of inventories. The situation remains most problematic in the construction sector, with adverse impacts on gross fixed capital formation and financial intermediation, where value-added declined notably in the first half of the year. Household consumption continued its gradual decline, as uncertainties persist on the labour market. The number of unemployed has ceased to rise in recent months, but risks associated with certain corporate bankruptcies remain. The number of registered unemployed stood at 98,406 in July. The workforce in employment has stabilised since February, but employment expectations remain low. The average gross wage per employee in June was up 4.4% in year-on-year terms. Year-on-year inflation as measured by the HICP was up 0.1 percentage points in August at 2.4%. Core inflation remains low, primarily as a result of the uncertain situation on the labour market and the resulting weakness in household consumption. In August there was a rise in the contribution to the HICP made by food prices as a result of a rise in excise duties on tobacco and higher current growth in prices of seasonal produce, while the contribution made by energy prices declined, primarily as a result of negative current growth in fuel prices. The risks of higher inflation remain associated with growth in prices of oil and commodities in connection with the weak euro. After widening of the current account deficit in May, there was a surplus of EUR 104 million in June.