A thesis submitted to the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy of Central European University in part fulfilment of the Degree of Master of Science Modeling and assessing the current and future habitat of the Irish hare (lepus timidus Hibernicus) using GIS CEU eTD Collection Christopher MAGUIRE July, 2018 Budapest Notes on copyright and the ownership of intellectual property rights: (1) Copyright in text of this thesis rests with the Author. Copies (by any process) either in full, or of extracts, may be made only in accordance with instructions given by the Author and lodged in the Central European University Library. Details may be obtained from the Librarian. This page must form part of any such copies made. Further copies (by any process) of copies made in accordance with such instructions may not be made without the permission (in writing) of the Author. (2) The ownership of any intellectual property rights which may be described in this thesis is vested in the Central European University, subject to any prior agreement to the contrary, and may not be made available for use by third parties without the written permission of the University, which will prescribe the terms and conditions of any such agreement. (3) For bibliographic and reference purposes this thesis should be referred to as: Maguire, C. 2018. Modeling and assessing the current and future habitat of the Irish hare (lepus timidus Hibernicus) using GIS. Master of Science thesis, Central European University, Budapest. Further information on the conditions under which disclosures and exploitation may take place is available from the Head of the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University. CEU eTD Collection ii Author’s declaration No portion of the work referred to in this thesis has been submitted in support of an application for another degree or qualification of this or any other university or other institute of learning. Christopher MAGUIRE CEU eTD Collection iii CENTRAL EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY ABSTRACT OF THESIS submitted by: Christopher MAGUIRE for the degree of Master of Science and entitled: Modeling and assessing the current and future habitat of the Irish hare (lepus timidus Hibernicus) using GIS. Month and Year of submission: July 2018. The Irish hare lepus timidus Hibernicus is endemic to the island of Ireland and has been subject to historic and current conservation concern due to a number of identified and perceived threats. Populations have experienced declines in recent years, and although often attributed to agricultural intensification, there are several other influencing factors. The invasive European hare lepus Europaeus has successfully naturalized in many countries across the Eurasian continent, including a small but established population in Northern Ireland. Changing climatic conditions are predicted to cause a contraction in the bioclimatic range of the endemic, and an expansion in favor of the invasive. Furthermore, existing bioclimatic models fail to account for the loss of available habitat due to anthropogenic disturbance, namely urban fabric and increasing human population densities. The study aims to conduct a combined assessment of these threats, conducting a habitat suitability analysis using ArcGIS 10.2.2 to determine available territory, as well as predicting likely future distribution based on changing climatic conditions using the maximum entropy species distribution modeling approach (MaxEnt). Although current conditions are favorable, suitable territory was determined to be circa 20% less than when calculated using solely bioclimatic variables as in previous studies. However, combined with predicted future climatic conditions, and accounting for a possible competitive exclusion due to European hare colonization, available habitat for the endemic is reduced to a fraction of its current size. CEU eTD Collection Keywords: Ecology; Irish hare; European brown hare; Ireland; Climate change; Habitat suitability; Species distribution; Invasive species; GIS. iv Acknowledgements I would like to express gratitude to my supervisor Dr. Viktor Lagutov, for the expertise and creative input provided, and for facilitating access to the fantastic GIS facilities at CEU Syslab. Thanks to Dr Neil Reid at Queens University Belfast for promptly responding to my data queries, issuing advice, and pointing me in the right direction. My thanks also go to my dear friend Glyn Worthington for his ongoing support and words of encouragement throughout the academic year, and for his ICT expertise. I am grateful too to my dear friend Aidana Childebayeva for her Kazakh chocolate provisions. Finally, the entire departmental faculty are equally worthy of thanks and appreciation for all of their hard work to facilitate our academic pursuits at CEU. Many thanks to all of you. CEU eTD Collection v Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................... v Tables ...................................................................................................................................... viii Figures ....................................................................................................................................... ix Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. x 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background & Research Justification ......................................................................... 1 1.2 Aims............................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 Research Questions...................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Objectives .................................................................................................................... 4 2 Literature Review ................................................................................................................ 6 2.1 Threats to Biodiversity ................................................................................................ 7 2.1.1 Climate Change .................................................................................................... 7 2.1.2 Invasive Species ................................................................................................. 10 2.1.3 Urbanization ....................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Biodiversity and Conservation Management with GIS ............................................. 13 2.2.1 Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling ......................................................................... 13 2.2.2 Habitat Suitability Modeling .............................................................................. 14 2.2.3 Predictive Species Distribution Models Using BEM ......................................... 16 2.3 European Lagomorphs ............................................................................................... 18 2.3.1 Species Variation, Range & Distributions ......................................................... 18 2.4 The Irish Hare ............................................................................................................ 20 2.4.1 Numbers & Distribution ..................................................................................... 20 2.4.2 Conservation Status ............................................................................................ 22 2.4.3 Threats & Causes of Decline .............................................................................. 23 2.4.4 Species Status Debate ......................................................................................... 26 2.5 European Brown Hare ............................................................................................... 28 2.5.1 Numbers and Distribution .................................................................................. 29 2.5.2 Introduction to Ireland ........................................................................................ 29 2.5.3 Success as an Invasive ........................................................................................ 31 2.6 Competitive Exclusion .............................................................................................. 31 CEU eTD Collection 2.6.1 Sweden Case Study ............................................................................................ 33 3 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 34 3.1 Study Area ................................................................................................................. 34 3.2 Research Design ........................................................................................................ 36 3.3 Data Collection & Processing.................................................................................... 37 vi 3.3.1 Habitat Suitability Model ................................................................................... 38 3.3.2 Predictive Species Distribution Model ............................................................... 43 4 Model Development & Analysis .....................................................................................