Credible pathways to a 50% renewable energy target for Queensland Final Report, 30 November 2016 Report of the Queensland Renewable Energy Expert Panel Queensland Renewable Energy Expert Panel Queensland Renewable Energy Expert Panel www.QLDREpanel.com.au Contents Contents 1. Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Summary of key themes ................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Overview of findings ....................................................................................................... 4 1.3. Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 9 1.4. Summary of key projected outcomes .......................................................................... 12 1.5. Summary of feedback from stakeholders on Draft Report ........................................ 12 2. Basis of the public inquiry ...................................................................................................... 14 2.1. Role of the Expert Panel ............................................................................................... 14 2.2. The Panel’s approach ................................................................................................... 14 2.3. Report outline ............................................................................................................... 15 3. Queensland’s electricity sector, greenhouse gas emissions and the role of renewables .. 17 3.1. Electricity capacity and generation .............................................................................. 17 3.2. Forecasts of future demand ......................................................................................... 18 3.3. Climate change and Queensland greenhouse gas emissions ..................................... 19 3.4. Renewable energy industry.......................................................................................... 21 3.5. Major existing renewable energy support mechanisms ............................................ 24 4. Defining Queensland’s renewable energy target ................................................................. 29 4.1. Elements of the target .................................................................................................. 30 5. Leveraging existing Federal support schemes to 2020 ........................................................ 38 5.1. Small-scale Renewable Energy Capacity...................................................................... 39 5.2. Delivering the remaining requirements of the LRET .................................................. 40 5.3. Opportunity for Queensland to leverage the LRET ..................................................... 42 5.4. Considerations for running a Queensland-specific process prior to 2020 ................ 44 6. National energy and climate change policy post 2020 ........................................................ 50 6.1. 2030 emissions reduction targets ............................................................................... 50 6.2. Post 2030 emission reductions .................................................................................... 51 6.3. Emissions reduction from the electricity sector ......................................................... 52 6.4. Queensland’s role in influencing national policy ........................................................ 53 7. Queensland renewable energy policy options post 2020 ................................................... 55 7.1. Direct policy options ..................................................................................................... 56 7.2. Broader economic policy measures............................................................................. 62 8. Analysis of credible pathways to a 50% renewable energy target for Queensland ........... 65 8.1. Context of the analysis ................................................................................................. 66 8.2. Base case - market development without new Queensland policies ........................ 67 8.3. Renewable energy requirements under the target .................................................... 70 8.4. Technology cost assumptions ...................................................................................... 72 8.5. Outcomes of credible pathways .................................................................................. 73 8.6. Sensitivity pathway: Stronger National Action ............................................................ 84 9. Facilitating large-scale renewable energy projects .............................................................. 87 9.1. Project development process ...................................................................................... 88 9.2. Options to facilitate renewable energy projects ........................................................ 91 10. Integration of renewables into the National Electricity Market .......................................... 98 10.1. Grid management with high penetrations of renewable generation ........................ 99 10.2. South Australian experience ...................................................................................... 102 10.3. Outcomes for Queensland ......................................................................................... 107 10.4. Future work and emerging solutions ......................................................................... 108 10.5. Options to enhance uptake of small-scale renewable energy generation .............. 109 QUEENSLAND RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPERT PANEL FINAL REPORT Contents 11. Supporting economic development .................................................................................... 113 11.1. Economic effects of renewable energy investment ................................................. 114 11.2. Opportunities to leverage future investment ........................................................... 118 11.3. Supporting the transition of communities and industries........................................ 127 Glossary of key terms .................................................................................................................... 130 Appendix A: Expert Panel ............................................................................................................. 133 Appendix B: Terms of Reference .................................................................................................. 134 List of references ........................................................................................................................... 136 QUEENSLAND RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPERT PANEL FINAL REPORT Executive Summary 1. Executive Summary The Queensland Government has committed to investigating a renewable energy target for Queensland of 50% by 2030. To help deliver on this commitment, the Government has established the Renewable Energy Expert Panel to provide advice on credible pathways to achieving a 50% renewable energy target for Queensland by 2030. The policy seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change, as well as to create economic development opportunities in the state. Throughout its inquiry, the Panel has undertaken a comprehensive consultation process, including the release of an Issues Paper and Draft Report, and two rounds of public and industry forums. Stakeholder feedback collected through the consultation process has been incorporated throughout this report. The Panel also commissioned modelling and analysis from Jacobs, the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) and KPMG. 1.1. Summary of key themes The Report finds Queensland has strong potential to grow its renewable energy industry, given falling technology costs, market dynamics and a current project pipeline of around 2,400 megawatts (MW) of committed and proposed large-scale renewable plant capacity, primarily in regional Queensland. To the fullest extent possible, the Government should encourage the market to contract and deliver large and small-scale renewable energy. However, significant Government policy action will likely be required to reach a 50% target, with 4,000–5,500 MW of new large-scale renewable generation capacity needed between 2020 and 2030. In the short-term, there is an opportunity for the Government to leverage existing Federal schemes to attract projects to Queensland, given the potential challenges in meeting the national Large Scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) in the period up to 2020. This could occur via a competitive reverse auction process, with the Panel recommending an indicative target of up to 400 MW prior to 2020, with the target to be reviewed based on the level of renewables developed by the market. In the longer-term, the Panel has assessed three alternative post-2020 pathways to meeting a 50% target for Queensland by 2030: ► Linear pathway: Assumes a uniform rate of renewables build from 2020-2030 ► Ramp pathway: Features a ramp up in effort later in the period to capitalise on falling technology costs later in the period ► Stronger National Action pathway: Assesses what additional Queensland Government action would be required to reach a 50% target if a stronger national emissions reduction scheme is put in place from 2020 to achieve a 45% reduction in electricity sector emissions on 2005 levels by 2030. Figure