Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung Perceptions and Governance of Food Insecurity Risks among Family Farmers in Southwestern Ethiopia Inaugural-Dissertation zur Erlangung des Grades Doktor der Agrarwissenschaften (Dr.agr.) der Landwirtschaftlichen Fakultät der Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn von Getachew Legese Feye aus Selale, Äthiopien Bonn 2018 Referent: Prof. Dr. Kristof Van Assche Korreferent: Prof. Dr. Christian Borgemeister Tag der mündlichen prüfung: 23.03.2018 Angefertigt mit Genehmigung der Landwirtschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Bonn Dedicated to my late son Yomiyu Getachew i Wahrnehmung und Governance von Risiken der Ernährungsunsicherheit bei kleinbäuerlichen Familienbetrieben im Südwesten Äthiopiens Zusammenfassung In Äthiopien sichert die Familienlandwirtschaft 81 Prozent der Bevölkerung ihren Lebensunterhalt und macht über 96 Prozent der gesamten landwirtschaftlichen Produktion aus. Diese Familienbetriebe sind jedoch häufig komplexen Bedrohungen und Risiken durch soziopolitische, ökologische, wirtschaftliche und institutionelle Rahmenbedingungen ausgesetzt, was zu ihrer strukturellen Ernährungsunsicherheit beiträgt. Hauptziel der vorliegenden Studie ist es, empirische Nachweise über Wahrnehmung und Governance der sich entwickelnden Risiken der Ernährungsunsicherheit landwirtschaftlicher Familienbetriebe in Äthiopien zu liefern. Die Studie wurde in drei Verwaltungsgebieten (Kersa, Omonada und Bako-Tibe) im Südwesten Äthiopiens zwischen Mai 2015 und April 2016 durchgeführt. Daten wurden im Form von Haushaltsumfragen, Fokusgruppendiskussionen und eingehenden Experteninterviews gesammelt. Die Datenanalyse bestand zum einen in einer thematischen Analyse qualitativer Daten und zum anderen aus deskriptiven Statistiken, darunter Hauptkomponentenanalysen, multivariater und geordneter Probitmodelle für quantitative Daten. Den theoretischen Rahmen für die Analyse und Erklärung der empirischen Ergebnisse lieferte die Evolutionäre Governance-Theorie. Die Ergebnisse der Studie offenbaren starke Pfadabhängigkeiten in der Bodenpolitik, im Agrarmarketing- und in der Kreditpolitik sowie Interdependenzen zwischen diesen Politikfeldern,. Ferner wurden Interdependenzen zwischen den unterschiedlichen Entstehungsgründen von Ernährungsunsicherheitsrisiken festgestellt, die ihre Wirkungen gegenseitig verstärken. Auch bei Entscheidungen für Strategien der Lebensunterhaltssicherung als Reaktion auf Ernährungsunsicherheitsrisiken wurden Interdependenzen beobachtet. Beispielsweise ergänzten sich Pflanzenproduktion und Nutztierhaltung mit außerlandwirtschaftlichen Einkommensstrategien. Darüber hinaus erhöht die Wahl einer Kombination aus Nutztierhaltung, außerlandwirtschaftlichen Einkommensstrategien und Transfereinkommen die Wahl der Strategien des Anbaumanagements. In Bezug auf lokalisierte Risiken schätzten unterschiedliche Akteure die gegebenen Risiken je nach eigener Perspektiven anders ein, was unterschiedliche riskscapes bildet. Zwischen diesen riskscapes können jedoch Abhängigkeiten oder Widersprüche bestehen. Zusammengefasst verdeutlicht die Analyse mit Hilfe eines evolutionary risk governance framework das Vorhandensein von Interdependenzen in verschiedenen Bereichen. Daher wird empfohlen, bei Plänen und Strategien zur Bewältigung von Risiken der Ernährungsunsicherheit ganzheitliche Ansätze in Betracht zu ziehen, um die breitere Perspektive und die Vernetzung von verschiedenen Risikofaktoren zu verstehen. Auch sollten Lehren aus dem Handeln früherer Regierungen in Äthiopien gezogen werden, um Misserfolge der Vergangenheit nicht zu ii wiederholen und rechtzeitig angemessene Maßnahmen gegen ähnliche Risiken in der Zukunft zu entwickeln. iii Abstract In Ethiopia, family farming provides livelihood for 81 percent of the population, and accounts for over 96 percent of total agricultural production. However, family farmers often operate under continuous threats of complex sets of risks associated with unfavorable socio-political, ecological, economic, and institutional environments. Consequently, family farming households suffer from structural food insecurity. The major objective of this study, therefore, was to generate empirical evidence on the perception and governance of evolving food insecurity risks among family farming households in Ethiopia. The study was conducted in three woredas (Kersa, Omonada and Bako- Tibe) located in the southwest of the country. Data were collected in May 2015-April 2016 through household surveys, focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. Data analysis followed thematic analysis for qualitative data, and descriptive statistics, principal component analysis, multivariate and ordered probit models for quantitative data. Evolutionary governance theory provided the framework through which to analyze and explain the empirical findings. The results of the study reveal strong path dependencies in land policies, agricultural marketing, and credit policies, and interdependences among these policies putting the food security and livelihood of family farming households at stake. Interdependencies were found between different sources of food insecurity risks, with one exacerbating the effect of the other. Interdependence was also observed in the decisions made in relation to major livelihood strategies in response to food insecurity risks. For instance, crop and livestock production and livestock and off-farm income strategies complemented each other. Moreover, the choice to combine livestock, off-farm, and transfer income strategies increased the choice of crop production strategies. Regarding localized risks, different actors perceived a given risk differently from their own perspectives, forming different ‘riskscapes’, though there could be interdependencies or contradictions among these. In a nutshell, results of the analysis using the evolutionary risk governance framework showed the presence of dependencies in different aspects. It is thus recommended that design of plans and policies in response to food insecurity risks, consider holistic approaches to understanding the broader perspectives and interconnectedness of different sources of risk. Lessons from past governances should also be taken into consideration, in order not to repeat past failures and instead to develop appropriate and timely interventions against similar risks in the future. iv Acknowledgements First and foremost, I would like to thank the Almighty God for giving me the mental, emotional, and physical strength to complete this task, in which I was passionately involved. This work would not have been possible without the inimitable supervision and guidance of my supervisor Prof. Dr. Kristof Van Assche, and my advisors Dr. Till Stellmacher, Dr. Girma Kelboro, and Dr. Hailemariam Teklewold, whose constant support kept me going and helped improve each successive draft of this thesis. My sincere gratitude goes to Prof. Dr. Van Assche for his utmost professional guidance and unreserved support throughout the research and thesis write-up processes. My deepest expression of gratitude goes to Prof. Dr. Christian Borgemeister for his agreement to be my second supervisor. I owe special thanks to Prof. Dr. Anna-Katharina Hornidge and Prof. Dr. Mathias Becker for their willingness to be my external examiner and chairperson of my PhD examination commission, respectively. I would also like to thank the whole staff cohort and students of the Department of Political and Cultural Change (ZEFa) for their constructive input into my work during my presentations in the regular colloquium. My stay in Bonn and working conditions at ZEF were wonderful because of the unreserved support of Dr Günther Manske, the coordinator of the Doctoral Program at ZEF, and his staff. Thank you very much indeed, Dr Manske! My special thanks go to Maike Retat-Amin for her kindness and professional support during my stay at ZEF. I am also indebted to the kind support of student assistants Anna Yuwen and Maximilian Voit in different administrative matters. I am grateful to the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the BiomassWeb project for awarding me a scholarship to pursue doctoral studies and financing my conference participation at the World Bank’s “Land and Poverty 2017 Conference” to present part of my research output. I owe special gratitude to Dr. Manfred Denich, director of the BiomassWeb project, and Jelana Vajen, the project manager, and the whole project coordination team for their prompt responses in facilitating official matters and providing encouragement throughout my study. I am grateful to Tiemo Pokraka, Diana-Isabel Scheffen, and Dr. Till Stellmacher for their kind assistance in translating the abstract for this thesis into the German language, which they achieved within a very short time in order to enable me meet the earliest submission deadline I set for myself. I am grateful to the professional support of my friend Gebrelibanos Gebremedihin in analyzing the data for this research and overall encouragement throughout the thesis writing. I also owe special thanks to my friend Gezahagn Negash for his kindness in developing the maps of the study areas used in this thesis. Access to important reference materials is one of the key factors for success in the research process. In this regard, Mr. Volker Merx did a fantastic job of accessing every piece of reference material needed for my work. I am indebted to him for his great support from the very beginning of my work, starting with the doctoral coursework at ZEF and