NATIONAL OPTICAL ASTRONOMY OBSERVATORY FOCUS ON THE FUTURE: Transforming the U.S. Ground-Based O/IR System Report to the NSF Senior Review July 29, 2005 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................ 1 1 SCIENCE OPPORTUNITIES................................................................................................... 4 1.1 The New O/IR Astronomy, 4 1.2 Dark Energy, 7 1.3 Galaxy Formation and Evolution, 9 1.4 Origin of Planetary Systems, 14 1.5 Multi-wavelength Science and Support of Space Astronomy, 17 2 THE O/IR SYSTEM 2005–2015............................................................................................... 19 2.1 Idea of the System, 19 2.2 NOAO Roles in the System, 19 2.3 Capabilities Needed in an Effective System, 20 2.4 Current Status of the System, 20 2.5 Evolution to 2011, 35 2.6 Risks, 36 3 NOAO AND THE DECADAL SURVEY INITIATIVES ........................................................ 38 3.1 A GSMT in the JWST Era, 38 3.2 The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), 39 3.3 Partner and Developer of the National Virtual Observatory (NVO), 41 4 NOAO BEYOND 2011 ............................................................................................................. 43 4.1 NOAO as Partner in the System of Ground-based Facilities, 43 4.2 NOAO as the Ongoing Entry Point to the System of O/IR Facilities, 46 4.3 NOAO as the Catalyst for Developing the System Beyond 2020, 46 4.4 NOAO Education and Public Outreach in 2011 and Beyond, 47 5 TRANSITION MANAGEMENT PLAN .................................................................................. 51 5.1 Boundary Conditions, 51 5.2 Solution, 51 5.3 Robustness, 54 5.4 Opportunities, 54 5.5 Accomplishments, 55 i 6 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND PROGRAM METRICS ............................................ 56 6.1 Public Access and Observing Support, 56 6.2 Broad Science Program and Strong Scientific Staff, 60 6.3 NOAO’s Support of Decadal Survey Initiatives, 62 6.4 Leadership in Development of New Telescopes, Instruments, and Data Products, 62 6.5 Public/Private Partnerships and Collaborations, 64 6.6 Science Education, Training, and Public Outreach, 64 REFERENCES CITED...................................................................................................................... 66 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................... 68 APPENDIXES A ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL DATA B COMMUNITY COMMENT ON SENIOR REVIEW C PARTNERS AND TENANTS ON KITT PEAK Science Publications, Abstracts, and Graduate Theses Based on Data from NOAO “Tenant” Telescopes, C–3 D LETTERS FROM PARTNERS IN NOAO FACILITIES AND OWNERS OF TENANT TELESCOPES J. Steiner, President, on Behalf of the Board of Directors, SOAR, Inc., D–1 J. Peoples on Behalf of the Dark Energy Survey Consortium, D–3 W. van Altena, President, on Behalf of the WIYN, Inc. Board of Directors, D–5 J. Halpern, Director, MDM Observatory, D–7 S. Veilleux, Director, Maryland-NOAO Collaboration and L. Mundy, Chair, Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, D–8 R. Gelderman, Department of Astronomy, Western Kentucky University, on Behalf of the Robotically Controlled Telescope (RCT) Consortium, D–10 T. Oswalt, Vice Provost for Research, Florida Institute of Technology, and Chairman of the Southeastern Association for Research in Astronomy (SARA), D–11 ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Scientific opportunity in optical/infrared astronomy is as high today as it has ever been. The physics of the expansion of the Universe is within our grasp, as are galaxy formation and evolution, star formation, and the evolution of planetary systems. NOAO’s responsibility is to manage the evolution of the O/IR observing system so that these opportunities can be realized in the climate of flat NSF budgets expected in the years 2005–2011. In this submission to the Division of Astronomical Sciences Review of Senior Facilities, we detail the scientific opportunities that can be realized if the path recommended in the recently-issued report of the O/IR Long-range Planning Committee is followed.1 We also describe the valuable science that would be lost if KPNO and CTIO were removed from NOAO’s existing system of facilities. In Section 5 of this document, we present a transition management plan for NOAO facilities that not only maximizes scientific opportunities, but also capitalizes on the investment of NSF resources already made in the NOAO program. NOAO proposes to divest 50% shares of the Mayall, Blanco, and 2.1 meter telescopes to operating partners in order to complete the re-distribution of resources to decadal survey initiatives shown in Figure 1. The national observatory will itself become a public-private partnership, with equal support from each sector for the 1–4 meter telescopes that are essential for effective use of the Gemini telescopes, their siblings in the U.S. system, and the emerging new generation of facilities. We make this proposal in support of the most recent decadal survey, Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium (AANM, 2001), in which the Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee (AASC) envisioned revolutionary advances over the next ten to twenty years in our understanding of such fundamental questions as: how large-scale structure emerged from the density fluctuations imprinted during the Big Bang; how the first stars and galaxies were formed and how the simple galactic morphologies we observe today came to be; and how planetary systems form and evolve and how frequently planets amenable to life emerge. The optimism expressed in the AASC report derives primarily from the enormous progress already made over the past two decades, thanks to advances in detector technology and computational power, the launching of NASA’s Great Observatories, and the development of a suite of powerful new 8–10-m class ground-based telescopes. The authors of the decadal survey were confident that the pace of progress could be sustained, and indeed accelerated, via imaginative combinations of private and federal investment in critical next generation facilities. An “effective national observatory” was viewed as central to this vision. The AASC thus challenged NOAO to become that observatory, specifically recommending that NOAO: (1) Work in partnership with the community and the private observatories to exploit the unique strength of the U.S. astronomical community—i.e., the large-scale private as well as public investment in major facilities—in order to achieve the design and construction of the next generation of ground-based telescopes. (2) Take a leading role in shepherding the evolution of the complex “system” of U.S. public and private telescopes so that creative scientists throughout the U.S. community can continue to have access to the full range of facilities and capabilities required to carry out world-leading research. 1 “Strategies for Evolution of U.S. Optical/Infrared Facilities: Recommendations of the O/IR Long-range Planning Committee,” July 2005, http://www.noao.edu/dir/lrplan/strategies-final.pdf 1 NOAO enthusiastically embraced this challenge and beginning in 2001, undertook a rapid evolution from an observatory largely focused on operating and providing access to its own facilities (including U.S. access to the Gemini telescopes), to an institution that by 2005 had achieved such notable results as: Participation in a broad community- and interagency-based partnership to build a Large- aperture Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), a facility that promises breakthrough contributions to our understanding of dark matter and dark energy; opening of the time domain and thereby enabling study of weak lensing, transient variables, near-earth asteroids, Kuiper Belt Objects; and bringing to maturity a new style of research: i.e., archival research based on an incredibly rich and ever-evolving imaging database. Founding membership with the California Institute of Technology (CIT), the University of California, and the Association of Canadian Universities for Research in Astronomy (ACURA) in a consortium to design a 30-m class Giant Segmented Mirror Telescope (GSMT): the highest priority for ground-based astronomy identified in the decadal survey. The combination of diffraction-limited images and light-gathering power provided by this partnerships’s Thirty-Meter Telescope (TMT) project will enable quantitative study of the first-forming stars and galaxies, the constituent populations in galaxies well beyond the Local Group, the early formation of planetary systems, and the imaging and analysis of planets surrounding nearby stars. As a member of the TMT partnership, NOAO is assured of a voice “at the table” to express community aspirations during the crucial design and development phase, when key performance and cost trades are made. A significant presence in planning and shaping the National Virtual Observatory (NVO): first, through the key role played by NVO Project Scientist (and NOAO astronomer), David De Young, and second, through the defining role of the NOAO Data Products Program in developing the pipelines, archives, and archive access and analysis tools needed to ingest and use data obtained with NOAO telescopes, with other O/IR facilities, and ultimately, with LSST and GSMT A formative role in the evolution of the “system” concept of U.S. public and private telescopes via sponsorship and coordination of the community-based System Committee, and ongoing productive