GLOBAL LITHIUM AVAILABILITY: A CONSTRAINT FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES? by Paul Gruber & Pablo Medina A practicum submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Natural Resources and Environment) at the University of Michigan April 2010 Faculty advisors: Professor Gregory Keoleian Professor Stephen Kesler Acknowledgements We would like to thank Dr. Tim Wallington, Environmental Scientist, and Dr. Mark Everson, Risk & Uncertainty Analyst, from Ford Motor Company for their major intellectual and editorial contributions to this study. ii Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................................. III FIGURES ................................................................................................................................................................ IV TABLES ................................................................................................................................................................... V ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................... 2 LITHIUM SUPPLY .................................................................................................................................................... 3 RESEARCH TO DATE ON SUPPLY ......................................................................................................................................... 3 BACKGROUND ON LITHIUM .............................................................................................................................................. 5 DEPOSIT -BY -DEPOSIT APPROACH ....................................................................................................................................... 9 LITHIUM RESOURCE ESTIMATES ....................................................................................................................................... 10 LITHIUM MARKETS AND DEMAND ....................................................................................................................... 13 NON -BATTERY DEMAND FORECAST .................................................................................................................................. 13 PORTABLE ELECTRONICS BATTERY DEMAND FORECAST ......................................................................................................... 14 VEHICLE BATTERY DEMAND FORECAST .............................................................................................................................. 15 TOTAL DEMAND FORECAST ............................................................................................................................................ 19 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................................................... 20 APPENDICES......................................................................................................................................................... 21 CASE STUDIES OF LITHIUM DEPOSITS ............................................................................................................................... 21 Salar de Uyuni .................................................................................................................................................... 21 Salar de Atacama ............................................................................................................................................... 30 Kings Mountain Belt .......................................................................................................................................... 37 Qaidam Basin ..................................................................................................................................................... 37 Kings Valley, Nevada ......................................................................................................................................... 40 Zabuye Salt lake and DXC ................................................................................................................................. 41 Manono and Kitotolo, Katanga province, Congo .............................................................................................. 42 Salar de Rincon .................................................................................................................................................. 43 Brawley .............................................................................................................................................................. 46 Jadar Valley ....................................................................................................................................................... 46 Salar de Hombre Muerto .................................................................................................................................... 46 Smackover Formation ........................................................................................................................................ 51 Other Chinese mineral deposits .......................................................................................................................... 52 Greenbushes ....................................................................................................................................................... 53 Beaverhill Lake Formation (Leduc Aquifer) ........................................................................................................ 53 Salton Sea ........................................................................................................................................................... 53 Silver Peak (Clayton Valley) ................................................................................................................................ 54 Russian deposits ................................................................................................................................................. 54 Maricunga .......................................................................................................................................................... 54 Jiajika .................................................................................................................................................................. 55 Mibra .................................................................................................................................................................. 56 Koralpa (or Koralpe) ........................................................................................................................................... 56 Bikita, Masvingo ................................................................................................................................................. 56 iii Searles Lake, California ...................................................................................................................................... 57 Dead Sea ............................................................................................................................................................ 57 Great Salt Lake ................................................................................................................................................... 57 Active Deposits with less than 100,000 tonnes of lithium resource ................................................................... 57 LITHIUM DEMAND . ....................................................................................................................................................... 58 GDP..................................................................................................................................................................... 58 Global lithium consumption by category ........................................................................................................... 58 Non-battery demand forecast - Calculations ..................................................................................................... 59 Portable electronics battery demand forecast – Calculations ............................................................................ 62 Primary battery – Linear regression on 1990 GDP ............................................................................................. 62 Secondary battery – Linear regression ............................................................................................................... 63 Annual primary and secondary battery manufacturing ..................................................................................... 63 Vehicle battery demand forecast - Calculations ................................................................................................. 64 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................................... 66 Figures Figure 1. Average lithium concentrations of brines (1 Dead Sea, 2 Great Salt Lake, 3 Searles