Staff Report CARB Review of the Mojave Desert AQMD and Antelope Valley AQMD Federal 75 ppb Ozone Attainment Plans for the Western Mojave Desert Nonattainment Area Release Date: April 21, 2017 Hearing Date: May 25, 2017 California Environmental Protection Agency OF Air Resources Board Electronic copies of this report are available online at https://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/planarea/mojavesedsip.htm . Alternatively, paper copies may be obtained from the Visitors and Environmental Services Center of the California Air Resources Board, located at 1001 I Street, Sacramento, California 95814, or by contacting CARB’s Office of Communications at (916) 322-2990. For individuals with sensory disabilities, this document is available in Braille, large print, audiocassette, or compact disc. Please contact CARB’s Disability Coordinator at (916) 323-4916 by voice or through the California Relay Services at 711 to place your request for disability services. If you are a person with limited English and would like to request interpreter services, please contact CARB’s Bilingual Manager at (916) 323-7053. This document has been prepared by the staff of the California Air Resources Board. Publication does not signify that the contents reflect the views and policies of the California Air Resources Board, nor do trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. For questions, contact: Monica Lewis, Air Pollution Specialist South Coast Air Quality Planning Section California Air Resources Board P.O. Box 2815 Sacramento, CA 95812 Phone: (916) 324-2716 Email: [email protected] Or Carol Sutkus, Manager South Coast Air Quality Planning Section California Air Resources Board P.O. Box 2815 Sacramento, CA 95812 Phone: (916) 322-1229 Email: [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................1 I. BACKGROUND ...................................................................................................................2 II. NATURE OF THE OZONE PROBLEM IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT .................. 3 III. DEMONSTRATING ATTAINMENT ......................................................................................5 IV. CONTROL STRATEGY .......................................................................................................6 V. CLEAN AIR ACT REQUIREMENTS .................................................................................... 7 VI. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ........................................................................................... 12 VII. STAFF RECOMMENDATION ............................................................................................ 13 APP. A NONATTAINMENT AREA EMISSIONS INVENTORY A-1) Emissions Inventory Documentation………………………………….……………….A1-1 A-2) Emissions Inventory (Summer)……..…………………………………………..……...A2-1 APP. B WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE ANALYSIS…………………………………………………...….B1 APP. C MOBILE SOURCE REGULATIONS FOR VMT OFFSET DEMONSTRATION…….....C1 APP. D SUPPLEMENTAL DOCUMENTS FROM MOJAVE DESERT AQMD D-1) Mojave Desert AQMD Ozone Plan Submittal Letter……………………….………..D1-1 D-2) Emission Statement Certification………………………………………………….…...D2-1 D-3) RACM Assessment………………………………………………………….……….….D3-1 APP. E SUPPLEMENTAL DOCUMENTS FROM ANTELOPE VALLEY AQMD E-1) Antelope Valley AQMD Ozone Plan Submittal Letter …………...…………………..E1-1 E-2) Emission Statement Certification……………………………………………….……...E2-1 E-3) RACM Assessment…………………………………………………….………….…….E3-1 APP. F CALIFORNIA MOBILE SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES, 1985-2016……………….F-1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents the California Air Resources Board (CARB or Board) staff’s assessment of the plan to meet the health-based 75 ppb 8-hour ozone standard for the Western Mojave Desert ozone nonattainment area (Western Mojave Desert) by 2026. The Western Mojave Desert includes a portion of the San Bernardino County (served by the Mojave Desert Air Quality Management District), and the Antelope Valley portion of Los Angeles County (served by the Antelope Valley Air Quality Management District). This report assesses two documents: 1) the Mojave Desert Federal 75 ppb Ozone Nonattainment Plan for the Western Mojave Desert Nonattainment Area (MD Ozone Plan) by the Mojave Desert AQMD, and 2) the Antelope Valley Federal 75 ppb Ozone Nonattainment Plan for the Western Mojave Desert Nonattainment Area (AV Ozone Plan) by the Antelope Valley AQMD. Together these two documents represent the Ozone Plan. CARB staff has concluded that the Ozone Plan in combination with this document meet all requirements of the federal Clean Air Act (Act), as the they include an analysis of reasonably available control measures, a reasonably available control technology demonstration, a reasonable further progress demonstration, an attainment demonstration, contingency measures for attainment, a vehicle miles traveled offset demonstration, and transportation conformity budgets. The Board is scheduled to consider the Ozone Plan on April 27, 2017. If approved, CARB will submit the Ozone Plan to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) as a revision to the California State Implementation Plan (SIP). The Act requires U.S. EPA to set air quality standards and periodically review the latest health research to ensure those standards remain protective of public health. Based on research demonstrating adverse health effects at lower exposure levels, U.S. EPA has set a series of increasingly health-protective ozone standards, beginning with a 1-hour ozone standard in 1979. Subsequent health studies demonstrated the greater effects of exposure to ozone over longer time periods, resulting in U.S. EPA establishing an 8-hour ozone standard of 80 parts per billion (ppb) in 1997, and the 75 ppb standard in 2008. On May 21, 2012 U.S. EPA designated the Western Mojave Desert as Severe for the federal 2008 8-hour ozone standard1, requiring attainment by July 20, 2027. 1 77 FR 30088, posted May 21, 2012 and effective July 20, 2012, “Air Quality designations for the 2008 Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards”, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR- 2012-05-21/pdf/2012-11618.pdf 1 CARB and the District have developed a series of SIPs which detail the actions needed to meet these standards. The SIP process established under the Act has been an effective, important driver for air quality progress in the Western Mojave Desert. The Western Mojave Desert has made significant progress in attaining the federal ozone standards. U.S. EPA determined on April 15, 2015 that the Western Mojave Desert attained the 1-hour ozone standard by its attainment date2. The Western Mojave Desert is also making steady progress towards the 80 ppb and 75 ppb 8-hour ozone standards. Between 1990 and 2015, the highest design values – the measurement of whether an area has met a standard – have decreased by approximately 40 percent in the Western Mojave Desert. The Ozone Plan addresses the 2008 federal 8-hour ozone standard of 75 ppb, representing the next building block in planning efforts to meet increasingly health protective air quality standards. Since their formation in 1993, the Districts’ ozone strategy has relied on concurrent reductions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and reactive organic gases (ROG) emissions from stationary and mobile sources. Continuing reductions in NOx and ROG emissions through implementation of current programs will provide for attainment of the ozone standard by the attainment deadline of 2027. I. BACKGROUND Ozone is a highly reactive gas that can damage the tissues of the respiratory tract, causing inflammation and irritation, and resulting in symptoms such as coughing, chest tightness, and worsening of asthma symptoms. Ozone exposure can also lead to decreased lung function. The Act requires U.S. EPA to set air quality standards and periodically review the latest health research to ensure those standards remain protective of public health. Based on research demonstrating adverse health effects at lower exposure levels, U.S. EPA has set a series of increasingly health-protective ozone standards, beginning with a 1-hour ozone standard in 1979. Subsequent health studies demonstrated the greater effects of ozone exposure over longer time periods, resulting in U.S. EPA establishing an 8-hour ozone standard of 80 ppb in 1997, 75 ppb in 2008, and more recently, the 70 ppb in 2015. Effective July 20, 20123, U.S. EPA classified the Western Mojave Desert as a Severe nonattainment area, which requires the Districts to submit a SIP meeting Severe area requirements, with an attainment date of July 20, 2027. 2 80 FR 20166, posted April 15, 2015 and effective May 15, 2015, “Determination of Attainment of the 1-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard in the Southeast Desert Nonattainment Area in California”, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2015-04-15/pdf/2015-08582.pdf 2 On February 27, 2017, the Mojave Desert AQMD adopted the MD Ozone Plan to address the 75 ppb standard. On March 21, 2017, the Antelope Valley AQMD adopted the AV Ozone Plan to address the 75 ppb standard. Together, these plans address Act requirements applicable to a Severe 8-hour ozone nonattainment area, consistent with U.S. EPA’s 2015 Implementation Rule for the 2008 8-hour ozone standard (Implementation Rule).4 II. NATURE OF THE OZONE PROBLEM IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT The Western Mojave Desert is part of the Mojave Desert Air Basin, which encompasses eastern Kern County, northeastern Los Angeles