ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: CASE STUDY – GLACIAL RETREAT AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN PERU’S RIO SANTA BASIN (DRAFT FINAL) January 2011 This report was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). It was prepared by International Resources Group (IRG). COVER PHOTO: Pastoruri Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: CASE STUDY – GLACIAL RETREAT AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN PERU’S RIO SANTA BASIN January 2011 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by Daene C. McKinney, the University of Texas at Austin, Glen Anderson, International Resources Group, and Alton Byers, The Mountain Institute. The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ············································································································ 1 1.1. Background .................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1. Peru ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2. Rio Santa Basin .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Case Study Objectives ................................................................................................................................ 2 1.3. Roadmap ......................................................................................................................................................... 2 2. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RIO SANTA BASIN ····················································· 3 2.1. Topography and Demographics ............................................................................................................ 3 2.2. Geology and Glaciers .................................................................................................................................. 5 2.2.1. Geology and Glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca .................................................................................................. 5 2.2.2. Glacial Risks in the Rio Santa Basin ....................................................................................................................... 6 2.3. Climate ............................................................................................................................................................. 7 2.3.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.3.2. Precipitation .................................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.4. Water Resources .......................................................................................................................................... 7 2.4.1. Water Resources in Peru ............................................................................................................................................ 7 2.4.3. Water Use in the Rio Santa ..................................................................................................................................... 10 2.4.4. Water Resources Management in the Rio Santa Basin ............................................................................... 12 3. PROBLEM DIAGNOSIS ························································································· 15 3.1. Non-Climatic Stressors on Water Resources ............................................................................... 15 3.1.1. Population Growth ..................................................................................................................................................... 15 3.1.2. Economic Growth ....................................................................................................................................................... 15 3.1.3. Water Quality Concerns ........................................................................................................................................... 16 3.1.4. Weakness in Water Management ........................................................................................................................ 16 3.1.5. Land Cover and Erosion .......................................................................................................................................... 17 3.2. Climate and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources ................................................... 17 3.2.1. Recent and Current Climate ................................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.2. Climate Change Projections ................................................................................................................................... 19 3.3. Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change: Water Resources ................................... 19 3.3.1. Second National Communication to UNFCCC ................................................................................................. 19 3.3.2. Water Shortages and Lack of Storage ................................................................................................................ 20 3.3.2. Flood Risk and Glacier Lake Management ....................................................................................................... 22 3.3.3. Water Quality Degradation .................................................................................................................................... 22 3.3.4. Deforestation ................................................................................................................................................................ 22 3.3.5. Sediment Loading .......................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.3.6. Tourism and Recreation .......................................................................................................................................... 23 4. ADAPTATION OPTIONS ······················································································· 24 4.1. National Adaptation Plan ...................................................................................................................... 24 4.2. Workshop Results .................................................................................................................................... 24 4.2.1. July 2009 International Conference-Workshop ............................................................................................ 25 4.2.2. February 2010 Stakeholder Workshops .......................................................................................................... 25 4.3. Adaptation Measures Addressing Identified Issues .................................................................. 26 4.3.1. Water Management ................................................................................................................................................... 27 4.3.2. Agriculture ..................................................................................................................................................................... 27 4.3.3. Risk Management ....................................................................................................................................................... 28 4.3.4. Ecosystems .................................................................................................................................................................... 28 4.3.5. Capacity Building ........................................................................................................................................................ 29 5. ASSESSMENT OF ADAPTATION OPTIONS ·································································· 32 5.1. Assessment Criteria and Process ...................................................................................................... 32 5.2. Adaptation Assessments ....................................................................................................................... 33 5.2.1. Water Management ................................................................................................................................................... 33 5.2.2. Agriculture ..................................................................................................................................................................... 34 5.2.3. Disaster Risks ............................................................................................................................................................... 34 5.2.4. Ecosystems .................................................................................................................................................................... 35 5.2.5. Capacity Building .......................................................................................................................................................