Addressing the Challenges of 100% Electricity Supply with Renewable Energy Sources in Kenya’s National Grid July 2020 Eliud KIPROP Addressing the Challenges of 100% Electricity Supply with Renewable Energy Sources in Kenya’s National Grid July 2020 A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences the University of Tsukuba in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Studies (Doctoral Program in Sustainable Environmental Studies) Eliud KIPROP Abstract The response to climate change demands countries to immediately replace fossil fuels with low carbon energy sources like renewables. On its part, Kenya targets a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared with business-as-usual mainly through scaling up of renewables’ contribution to power generation. The current installed capacity of renewables in Kenya is 73%, mainly from geothermal, hydro, and wind, while generation contribution is 88% and the national access rate is 76%. In 2018, with a view of meeting climate change and universal access targets, the president announced the government’s intention to supply 100% of Kenya’s electricity demand with renewables. However, he did not elaborate on how this could be achieved. Past studies have indicated insufficient historical evidence for the feasibility of 100% renewable energy supplies at country, regional or larger scales. Therefore, the objective of this dissertation is to investigate how to address the challenges of 100% electricity supply with renewable energy sources in Kenya’s national grid through demand-side management and renewables adoption by residential consumers. The main part of this research was based on two questionnaire surveys and field interviews. The first questionnaire was administered among 250 residential electricity consumers in Nairobi County (urban), Makueni, and Uasin Gishu counties (largely rural) between October and November 2018. The second questionnaire was administered among 31 experts in Kenya’s energy sector between May and July 2019. I also carried out an extensive review of government documents on the energy sector and reports from several local and international organizations. Finally, I conducted interviews on seven informants working for the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum in September 2019. From the interviews, documents, and reports review, I found that Kenya’s initial energy policy formulation and evolution were heavily influenced by financial partners. However, over time, the local political dynamics have played a significant role especially in favor of generation from renewables with laws being passed immediately before or after a general election. There has also been a continuous increase in the share and the diversity of investments on renewables. The prospects of renewable energy growth are highly dependent on the sustainability of the existing political will and external financial support, litigation activities, and technological advancements. The results of the questionnaire survey among energy experts showed that about 76% and 41% of the respondents strongly agreed or agreed that Kenya could meet its electricity and entire i energy demand respectively for 2030 with renewable energy resources and higher percentages of about 89% and 71% responded similarly for 2050. The respondents indicated that the most viable methods for dealing with variability under 100% renewable energy sources electricity supply are: using non-variable sources to help match demand with supply (81%), regional (74%) and national (61%) interconnection of geographically dispersed renewable energy sources, providing 100% of rural households electricity demand with renewables (71%), and applying demand-response management and smart grid (68%). In addressing transmission and universal access challenges, the use of mini-grids run by renewables (76%) is economically more viable than extending the national grid (41%). Another salient finding is that about 65% of the experts consider the electricity supply stability under 100% renewables as far better or better than now. Among the residential consumers’ respondents, I found a low level of familiarity with smart meters (24%), smart grid (20%), and demand-side management (43%). However, to avoid power outage during peak hours, 88% of them expressed their willingness to shift the period they use electricity. More respondents in the rural (96%) than urban (76%) counties were interested in adopting renewables for their entire electricity consumption mostly for solving frequent power outages and high energy costs of grid electricity. Similarly, more in the rural (86%) than urban (63%) counties showed their interest in generating and selling renewables to the grids subject to subsidies availability. I also found that even though about 98% of the respondents showed their concerns for environmental conservation, this did not motivate them much to invest in renewables. Currently, in their attempts to invest in renewable energy sources, the residential consumers were challenged by the high cost of equipment (49%) and the intermittent nature of renewables (27%). Reflecting on these findings, I conclude that Kenya has adequate renewable energy resources and the capacity to overcome the variability, transmission, and access challenges to supply its electricity demand with 100% renewables by 2030. In this regard, demand-side management and residential electricity consumers’ who have shown interest in adopting renewable energy technologies will play a critical role. To centralize their contribution, I recommend consumer education on the importance of demand-side management and the provision of incentives for purchasing renewable energy generation accessories. Keywords: 100% renewable energy, climate change, demand-side management, environmental conservation, renewable energy potential, residential electricity consumers ii Acknowledgment I would like to thank God for the good health, strength, and divine protection throughout this doctoral study period. I would wish to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor, Professor Kenichi Matsui, for providing guidance, assistance, new insights, motivation, and supervision necessary for the completion of the research and this dissertation. I thank my sub-supervisors, Professors Helmut Yabar, Myra Villareal, and Zhongfang Lei for their guidance and critical comments that improved this dissertation. I would also like to thank my evaluation committee members, Professors Tomoyuki Yokoi and Keiko Yamaji for their great suggestions, critical comments, and questions. I would like to thank my colleagues in Matsui Laboratory for their support, encouragement, comments, and the fun that we had together that made my doctoral life interesting. Much appreciation goes to the staff of the Doctoral Program in Sustainable Environmental Studies at the University of Tsukuba for their support and guidance. I extend my gratitude to the Kubota Yutaka Foundation and Rotary Yoneyama Memorial Foundation for providing me with financial support. Through these scholarships, I was able to complete my doctoral studies on time. I wish to thank members of Makabe and Shimodate Rotary clubs together with my counselor Mr. Tadao Hakuta for their support and encouragement during the monthly club meetings. I would also like to thank the members of the Tsukuba SDA church for their continuous support and prayers throughout my study period. I acknowledge the generous support provided by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum and its related agencies for permitting me to carry out this research in their institutions. Special thanks to Eng. Nicholas Musembi Maundu of Renewable Energy Directorate for the immense support during data collection and interview surveys. I wish to thank the residents of the three counties of Nairobi, Makueni, and Uasin Gishu for their generosity in responding to my questionnaires. I thank Ms. Mercy David, Mr. Brian Maiyo, Mr. Denis Kipkemboi, and Mr. Vincent Kipkirui, for their support during questionnaire administration. Further, I would like to extend my gratitude to my mother, Mrs. Leah Jelimo Chepkwony, and my siblings for their consistent support, encouragement, and prayers. Finally, I wish to give special thanks to my wife, Mrs. Yoshimi Kiprop, for her support, love, encouragement, and understanding during the entire study period. iii Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ i Acknowledgment ........................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. viii Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research objectives ............................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Study areas ...........................................................................................................................