BID PRICE MORTGAGE RATE VILLA FLAT BID PRICE DWELLINGHOUSEHOLD RESIDENTIAL RENT RENT HOUSING AFFORDABILITY VILLA TRANSACTION PRICE BID PRICE HOUSINGRESIDENTIAL MARKET MORTGAGE RATE AFFORDABILITY OWN HOUSING RESIDENTIAL BID PRICE BID DWELLING PRICE RENT VILLA HOUSEHOLD HOUSING BIDFLAT PRICE REAL ESTATE RESIDENTIAL DWELLING TRANSACTION PRICE VILLATRANSACTION PRICE MORTGAGE RATE RESIDENTIAL MARKET RENTAL MARKET OWN HOUSING BID PRICE MORTGAGE RATE HOUSEHOLD RENT REAL ESTATE RESIDENTIAL DWELLINGVILLA APARTMENT BID PRICE MORTGAGE RATE RENT DWELLING REAL ESTATE RESIDENTIAL DWELLING TRANSACTION PRICE BID PRICE RESIDENTIALTRANSACTION PRICE VILLA MORTGAGE RATE REAL ESTATE RESIDENTIAL RENT HOUSEHOLD RESIDENTIAL MARKET BID PRICE MORTGAGE RATE HOUSEHOLD RENT AFFORDABILITY BID PRICE MORTGAGE RATE HOUSEHOLD RENT REAL ESTATE RESIDENTIAL RESIDENT DWELLING RESIDENTIAL MARKET RENTAL MARKET OWN OWN HOUSING DWELLING TRANSACTION PRICE HOUSEHOLD HOUSEHOLD RESIDENTIAL BID PRICE PRICE RENT HOUSING AFFORDABILITYBID PRICE ESTATE HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE RESIDENT DWELLING TRANSACTION VILLA BID PRICE BID PRICE BID HOUSING HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE BID PRICE MORTGAGE RATE HOUSEHOLD RENTDWELLING OWN HOUSING RENT RESIDENTIAL AFFORDABILITY RENT VILLAMORTGAGE RATE RENTBID PRICE Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets Where does residential price growth end? 8th edition, July 2019 Property Index | 8th edition, July 2019 Property Index | 8th edition, July 2019 Introduction Introduction 03 We are pleased to present you the eighth edition Highlights 05 of the Property Index, Overview of European Residential Markets. During its long history the Where Does Residential Price Growth End? 06 Property Index has become one of the most important Economic Development in Europe 08 European real estate publication and has acted as Comparison of Residential Markets – Housing Development Intensity 10 a valuable source for many, whether private or public institutions. Comparison of Residential Property Prices in Selected Countries and Cities 15 Mortgage Markets in Europe 28 Property Index analyses factors influencing the Annex: Comments on Residential Markets 30 development of residential markets and compares residential property prices in selected European Contacts 40 countries and cities. Our goal is to provide you with European residential market data on a regular basis and answer questions on how Europeans live and at what costs. We hope you will find this eighth issue of the publication interesting and inspiring for you and for your business. 2 3 Property Index | 8th edition, July 2019 Property Index | 8th edition, July 2019 This year we especially focus our Most presented indicators are on a year-on attention on: year basis and are to some extent also Highlights influenced by geopolitical situation or • Austria (AT); various factors affecting the volume of • Belgium (BE); supply and demand. • Croatia (HR); The Property Index was prepared by • Czech Republic (CZ); a proven international and cross-functional team of Deloitte professionals in the 22% • Denmark (DK); development, mortgage and real estate Dwelling prices, surprisingly, • France (FR); 3.8 years markets. This publication has been increased by 22% in Prague, • Germany (DE); prepared using data collected by individual which was the largest growth The most affordable 321% Deloitte offices in selected countries. among all examined capitals. housing can be found • Hungary HU); newly in Portugal, where Properties in Paris (inside) were on average 321% • Italy (IT); The Property Index capitalises on you need to save on Deloitte’s extensive knowledge of the real average only 3.8 years of the national average • Latvia (LV); estate and development industry, enabling to buy a new dwelling. and recorded therefore the largest difference. • Netherlands (NL); us to provide you with independent and credible information. A virtually identical figure 12,910 EUR / sq m • Norway (NO); was observed in Lisbon Paris (inside) was the (320%). • Poland (PL); most expensive city • Portugal (PT); among surveyed cities with a price tag reaching • Spain (ES); and 12 910 EUR / sq m. • United Kingdom (UK). 4,043 EUR / sq m Despite close economic connection within the EU, the residential market evolved 25.3 EUR / sq m diversely in particular count- Newly provided data from ries. For the first time Norway Norway show that rental took a leading position from the housing is comparatively United Kingdom as the most expensive. Oslo, followed Italy expensive country in our rese- by Trondheim occupied arch (4,043 EUR/ sq m). second and third place Housing prices rose in within our research with the 15 out of the 16 selected value 25.3 EUR / sq m and countries since 2015. The 21.3 EUR / sq m per month only exception was Italy, respectively after Paris. where dwelling prices Berlin have been dropped constantly since the Despite the current disor- beginning of the financial ders due to rising rental crisis. prices mainly in Berlin, rent levels are low compared to other European cities. 4 5 Property Index | 8th edition, July 2019 Property Index | 8th edition, July 2019 Another reason may also be that the a result of expansionary monetary policy The House Price Index (HPI) published by price base has always been lower in CEE from the European Central Bank (ECB) Eurostat measures price changes of all resi- Where Does Residential countries and now we see an elimination in the future. If the ECB maintains its dential properties purchased by households of price differences and gradual approxi- monetary policy stance further, average (flats, detached houses, terraced houses mation to Western countries. However, it house prices will exceed pre-crisis levels. etc.), both new and existing, independently Price Growth End? should be noted that there are still funda- Potential impacts of the real estate of their final use and their previous owners. mental discrepancies in terms of average bubble on the real economy depend, in Only market prices are considered, self- wages, for example, which implies worse part, on the extent to which rising house -build dwellings are therefore excluded. conditions for housing affordability. prices are accompanied by rising debt The land component is included. What has been the defining characteristic of the and a construction boom. It is clear that residential market within Europe in recent years? The majority of European countries may rapid price growth will have to end once. Undoubtedly, the price growth. be at risk of a future development as Housing prices have been on the rise in The average annual growth of property ownership tends to diminish. The culprit 15 out of the 16 selected countries since prices in the EU was 5% in the last three is the consequences of the debt crisis, or European Union France Poland Denmark Germany 2015. The only exception was Italy, where years. The dwelling prices in the Czech the poor and slow administration of the dwelling prices have been dropping Republic, Hungary, Latvia and Portugal state building authorities, which hampers Spain Austria Czech Republic Latvia constantly since the beginning of the grew twice as fast as the EU average. Due the construction of new real estate. This Netherlands Belgium Italy United Kingdom financial crisis. to the significant rise in property prices in reduces the supply that eventually fails to those countries, the possibility of home meet the high demand for housing. Hungary Croatia Portugal Norway House Price Index (2015 = 100) – quarterly data 10.0 1.0 HU CZ 10.0 PT LV NL 12.0 120.0 DE AT ES UK 11.0 DK NO 110.0 BE PL HR EU FR 10.0 100.0 IT 9.0 90.0 201 Q1 201 Q2 201 Q3 201 Q4 201 Q1 201 Q2 201 Q3 201 Q4 201 Q1 201 Q2 201 Q3 201 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 Source: Eurostat 6 7 European Union Belgium Denmark Spain Croatia Latvia Netherlands Poland United Kingdom Euro area Czech Republic Germany France Italy Hungary Austria Portugal Norway Property Index | 8th edition, July 2019 Property Index | 8th edition, July 2019 from a surplus of EUR 22 billion to a deficit Europe still faces geopolitical risks that The long-term prospects of the EU and the of EUR 25 billion. The unemployment rate could have an impact on its economy. EU Eurozone are expected to be negatively descended from its high of 10.9% in 2013 faces threat of tariffs on exports of cars affected by the slow growth of total factor to 6.8% in 2018. and car parts to the USA (tariffs on exports productivity. An aging population will add of steel and aluminium were already impo- some pressure to the labour markets and Fiscal policy in most European countries sed). Sanctions on Iran lead to higher oil could slowdown GDP growth as well. While remained neutral or tightened in an effort prices that negatively affect EU economy. the average growth in the 10 years before to get closer to the long-term sustainability Sanctions against Russia are still in place. the financial crisis (1998–2007) reached of public finances. General government The United Kingdom entered the process 2.6%, expected long-term growth in deficit declined (or surpluses increased) in of leaving the EU in March 2017 but did not coming years is likely to oscillate between 19 out of 28 EU countries in 2017. leave yet. The date of departure has been 1.5–2.0%. postponed to 31st October 2019. Economic Growth of Real GDP in EU 28 4% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% Development 2% 1.4% 0.3% 0% in Europe -0.3% -2% -4% Similarly to other economies the European 0.8%. The Russian and Brazilian economy -4.3% economy was significantly affected by the continued in moderate growth. Because of global financial crisis of 2008. It slightly tough external conditions, the EU economy -6% recovered during 2010 and 2011 after the decelerated from 2.5% to 2.0%. Further 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 resulting recession.