Western Michigan University ScholarWorks at WMU Master's Theses Graduate College 12-1977 An Analysis of the Factors that Determine the Success of Congressional Campaigns Paul J. Seigel Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/masters_theses Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Seigel, Paul J., "An Analysis of the Factors that Determine the Success of Congressional Campaigns" (1977). Master's Theses. 2263. https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/masters_theses/2263 This Masters Thesis-Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate College at ScholarWorks at WMU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Theses by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks at WMU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. AN ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE SUCCESS OF CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS by Paul J. Seigel A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty o f The Graduate College in partial fulfillment o f the Degree of Master of Arts Western Michigan U niversity Kalamazoo, Michigan December 1977 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Although a variety of sources were consulted while preparing this thesis, I am particularly grateful for the advice and encouragement of my Thesis Committee. Professors Chester B. Rogers, Helenan S. Lewis, and Peter Kobrak have helped to make my stay at Western Michigan University a pleasurable as well as an intellectual experience. I am also greatly indebted to Mr. Brian Mitchell for his kind assistance with the statistical portions of this study, and to Congressman Dale E. Kildee from Michigan's Seventh Congressional D is tric t fo r his help in encouraging the response of many of his colleagues to my questionnaires. Paul Jay Seigel Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. 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TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I INTRODUCTION .................................................................. 1 II REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE........................................... 3 Impact o f Party .................................................. 4 The Independent Voter...................................... 6 Impact o f Candidate Orientation ................... 9 Impact of Is s u e s .................................................. 10 Impact of Campaigning ...................................... 13 Summary ..................................................................... 18 I I I RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND METHODS ............................ 23 Dependent Variable—Success ............................... 23 Independent Variable ...................................... 25 Research Design .................................................. 42 IV DATA COLLECTION...............................................................43 Federal Election Commission Reports .... 45 V ANALYSIS OF DATA...............................................................47 Variable Correlations ...................................... 47 Regression Analysis .......................................... 50 Partial Correlations ...................................... 52 Factor Analysis .................................................. 57 VI CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................ 60 Incum bency........................................................ 61 Money.........................................................................61 i i i Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) CHAPTER PAGE VI CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS (Cont.) Professional Assistance ...................................... 62 Campaign Organization ........................................ 63 P o llin g..................................................................... 64 R e se a rch ..................................................................64 P la n n in g..................................................................65 V o lu n te e rs ..............................................................66 L it e r a t u r e ..............................................................66 REFERENCES......................................................................... 74 APPENDIX A ......................................................................... 76 APPENDIX B ......................................................................... 80 APPENDIX C ......................................................................... 81 APPENDIX D ......................................................................... 83 APPENDIX E ......................................................................... 85 APPENDIX F ......................................................................... 92 iv Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. LIST OF TABLES TABLE NO. PAGE 1 INCUMBENCY MEASURE ............................................... 28 2 PROFESSIONAL ADVERTISING MEASURE .................... 31 3 MANAGEMENT MEASURE ............................................... 34 4 POLLING QUALITY MEASURE . - ................... 36 5 CORRELATIONS WITH SUCCESS...................... -. 48 6 INTERCORRELATION BETWEEN VARIABLES ................ 49 7 REGRESSION ON ALL INDEPENDENT VARIABLES . 51 8 REGRESSION WITHOUT INCUMBENCY ........................ 51 9 PARTIAL CORRELATION COEFFICENTS CONTROLLING FOR INCUMBENCY ...................................................... 53 10 PARTIAL CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS CONTROLLING FOR MONEY ............................................................. 54 11 PARTIAL CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS CONTROLLING FOR INCUMBENCY AND MONEY .................................. 55 12 ROTATED FACTOR MATRIX ....................................... 58 13 REGRESSION ON FACTORS ....................................... 58 14 DISTRICT BASE PARTY STRENGTH ............................ 80 15 CAMPAIGN COST PER VOTE ....................................... 81 16 FULL DATA SET ....................................................... 83 17 WINNER'S PERCEPTIONS OF THEIR OWN VICTORIES AND OF THE VARIABLES .......................................... 93 18 WINNER'S PERCEPTIONS OF LOSER'S DEFEATS AND OF THE VARIABLES .................................................. 94 19 LOSER'S PERCEPTIONS OF THEIR OWN DEFEATS AND OF THE VARIABLES .......................................... 95 20 LOSER'S PERCEPTIONS OF THE WINNER'S VICTORIES AND OF THE VARIABLES .......................................... 96 v Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS NUMBER PAGE 1 GEOGRAPHICAL QUESTIONNAIRE RETURN DESCRIPTION . 44 vi Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The objective o f th is study is to determine which factor or combination of factors in a campaign for congressional office contributes most significantly to the success of a candidate. Traditionally