Air Force Institute of Technology AFIT Scholar Theses and Dissertations Student Graduate Works 12-5-2007 Modeling and Analysis of Resolve and Morale for the `Long War' Michael J. Artelli Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.afit.edu/etd Part of the Defense and Security Studies Commons Recommended Citation Artelli, Michael J., "Modeling and Analysis of Resolve and Morale for the `Long War'" (2007). Theses and Dissertations. 2648. https://scholar.afit.edu/etd/2648 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Graduate Works at AFIT Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of AFIT Scholar. For more information, please contact [email protected]. MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF RESOLVE AND MORALE FOR THE ‘LONG WAR’ DISSERTATION Michael J Artelli, Major, USAF AFIT / DS / ENS / 07-02 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY IR ORCE NSTITUTE F ECHNOLOGY AF I O T Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. The views expressed in this dissertation are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government. AFIT/DS/ENS/07-02 MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF RESOLVE AND MORALE FOR THE ‘LONG WAR’ DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology Air University Air Education and Training Command in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Michael J. Artelli, B.S., M.S. Major, USAF December 2007 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED AFIT/DS/ENS/07-02 MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF RESOLVE AND MORALE FOR THE ‘LONG WAR’ DISSERTATION Michael J. Artelli, B.S., M.S. Major, USAF Approved: ____________________________________ Dr. Richard F. Deckro (Chairman) Date ____________________________________ Dr. Michael R. Grimaila (Dean’s Representative) Date ____________________________________ Col Daniel J. Zalewski, PhD (Member) Date ____________________________________ Dr. Marcus B. Perry (Member) Date ____________________________________ Maj Sonia E. Leach, PhD (Member) Date Accepted: ________________________________ Dr. Marlin U. Thomas Date Dean, Graduate School of Engineering and Management AFIT/DS/ENS/07-02 Abstract In The Art of War, Sun Tzu begins by stating: “War is a matter of vital importance to the State; the province of life or death; the road to survival or ruin. It is mandatory that it be thoroughly studied” (c500BC/1963, p. 63). Sun Tzu follows this opening by stating five fundamental factors a commander must master to be successful in combat (Tzu, c500BC/1963, p. 65). The first of these factors is moral influence which Sun Tzu defines as “that which causes the people to be in harmony with their leaders, so they will accompany them in life and death without fear of mortal peril” (Tzu, c500BC/1963, p. 64). In the face of the instant communication provided by satellites, 24 hour news media coverage, and other technological advances, this factor is even more relevant today. This research provides an analytic framework, based on the principles of fourth generation operations, capturing the effects of will and resolve of the combatant and population. The strategic level model investigates the long term impacts of asymmetric conflict. These results are primarily measured in the socio-political arena rather than the military battlefield. The model developed in this dissertation remains a model of conflict and combat. However, some of the impacts from the political, economic, and informational instruments of power are represented in the model through the dynamic adaptation of public resolve and combat spirit. To paraphrase Sun Tzu, war is vitally important and must be studied (Tzu, c500BC/1963, p. 63). Therefore, this dissertation puts forth a means to model key aspects of conflict in the ‘long war.’ iv Acknowledgments I would like to thank my advisor and committee for insuring the research was a contribution. I thank my high school calculus teacher for telling me I can not do math with a pen. By ignoring her I learned to think carefully before I write. I thank my AFJROTC instructor for suggesting I go to the ‘company school’. I am thankful for my Dad who taught me to always use a building block approach. I thank my Mom for teaching me persistence. I thank my daughter for always being on the lookout for pirates. I finally thank my wife for always being my cheerleader. v Table of Contents Page Abstract.............................................................................................................................. iv Acknowledgments............................................................................................................... v List of Figures.................................................................................................................... ix List of Tables ................................................................................................................... xiv I. Introduction................................................................................................................. 1 Background................................................................................................................. 1 Problem Statement...................................................................................................... 2 General Assumptions and Scope ................................................................................ 5 Research Contributions............................................................................................... 6 Document Overview ................................................................................................... 7 II. Literature Review...................................................................................................... 11 Fourth Generation Warfare....................................................................................... 11 Principles of Fourth Generation Warfare.................................................................. 27 Strategic Level Modeling.......................................................................................... 38 Discrete Event Simulation ........................................................................................ 44 System Dynamics...................................................................................................... 46 Regression Models.................................................................................................... 49 Least Square Linear Regression Models .............................................................. 49 Logistic Regression Models .................................................................................. 51 Lanchester Laws ....................................................................................................... 54 Lanchester’s Work ................................................................................................ 54 Modeling Area and Direct Fire ............................................................................ 59 Modeling Insurgencies.......................................................................................... 61 Modeling Will-to-Fight, Morale, and Combat Spirit................................................ 68 Combat Degradation ............................................................................................ 69 Civil Stability Index............................................................................................... 74 Campaign Model Implementation (JWARS)......................................................... 77 Efforts to Model Morale........................................................................................ 82 Control Theory.......................................................................................................... 89 Summary................................................................................................................... 91 vi III. Fourth Generation Operations and Principles........................................................... 92 Chapter Overview ..................................................................................................... 92 Fourth Generation Operations................................................................................... 92 Principles of Fourth Generation Operations ............................................................. 95 Summary................................................................................................................... 97 IV. Lanchester Laws in a System Dynamics Framework ............................................... 99 Chapter Overview ..................................................................................................... 99 Discrete Event Simulation versus Systems Dynamics.............................................. 99 Basic Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics Models........................ 101 Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics Models with Reserves........... 103 Implementation of Fatigue.................................................................................. 109 Summary................................................................................................................. 114 V. Public Resolve........................................................................................................