Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.12, 2017 An Analysis of The Greater Jakarta Metropolitan Area Multi-Airport System Pintanugra PERSADANTA a, DEWANTI b a Airport System and Environmental Division, Directorate General of Civil Aviation, Ministry of Transportation, Indonesia; E-mail: [email protected] b Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia; E-mail: [email protected] Abstract: Japan International Cooperation Agency in 2012 has conducted a research regarding multi-airport systems in Greater Jakarta which stated that a new airport should be operating in this metropolitan area by 2019 to accommodate future demand. According to the 2012 study, no airports except Soekarno-Hatta Airport were able to handle commercial flights in the city due to regulatory and environmental issues. However, this is not the case. Halim Perdanakusuma Airport, now a secondary airport, has been operating commercially since 2014 and another secondary airport, Pondok Cabe Airport, has the potential to be operational in the future. New air demand forecasts and air traffic distributions with different scenarios have been produced and analysed to reflect current situation in Greater Jakarta. The result of these analyses differs from the Japan International Cooperation Agency study and shows that the operation of the new airport can now be postponed until 2022 at the earliest. Keywords: Market Analysis, Demand Growth Drivers, Traffic Forecast, Sensitivity Analysis, Air Traffic Distributions 1. INTRODUCTION From 2010 to 2012, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) conducted a master plan study on multiple-airport development for Greater Jakarta Metropolitan Area (GJMA). The background of the JICA study was the overcapacity experienced by the existing terminals in Soekarno-Hatta Airport (CGK). CGK plays a vital role in Indonesia’s airport system as a primary hub airport, operating as the main international gateway for the country and the main hub for an extensive amount of domestic air routes. Apart from CGK, there are three other airports in GJMA namely Halim Perdanakusuma (HLP), Pondok Cabe (PCB) and Budiarto (BDR). However, CGK was the only airport which operated commercially at GJMA when the JICA study was conducted. The JICA study (2012) concludes that CGK does not have enough capacity to accommodate future air transport demand and cannot be expanded due to environmental reasons. JICA also suggests that HLP, PCB and BDR cause some negative environmental issues with regard to airport operation and thus cannot be included in the GJMA airport system. Therefore, JICA recommends the Government of Indonesia to establish and operate a new major airport at Karawang in 2019. However, the situation in GJMA after the JICA study has moved beyond JICA’s assumptions. In 2013, the GOI opened HLP and together with CGK serves the air transport demand for GJMA. The GOI through its Ministry of Transport published Ministerial Decree 369/2013 which withdrew the previous regulation that restricts HLP serving scheduled commercial flights. Moreover, CGK continues to develop the third runway, which based on 632 Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.12, 2017 the JICA study, is not environmentally feasible due to land constraints. Therefore, since 2013 the multi-airport system (MAS) has already been implemented in GJMA through CGK and HLP to serve air demand in the region. The possibility of the other two non-commercial airports in GJMA, BDR and PCB, serving scheduled commercial flights will also be analysed in this research. By looking at the conditions mentioned above, if the existing airports in GJMA can form a strong system to accommodate the air demand, the urgency for a new airport in 2019 is questionable and will be analysed in this research. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Definition of Multi-Airport Systems According to Horonjeff et al. (2010), an airport system is an integrated system of airports assessed to meet the future air transport demand of an area, region or country. This airport system, where some airports serve the same region, is called a MAS. Theoretically, a MAS is an airport system in which more than one airport serving commercial traffic operates in the same metropolitan area without regard to the ownership or political control of the individual airports (de Neufville et al., 2013). Each airport in a MAS varies in size and characteristics. De Neufville (1995) argues that each airport concentrates on its own market. Therefore, it is critical to perceive the dynamics of the different types of airport within MASs. MASs consist of two airport types: primary and secondary. The former is described as an airport that handles more than 20% of the total passengers in a MAS, while the latter handles less than 20% of the total passengers in the same MAS (Bonnefoy et al., 2010) 2.2 Dynamics Evolution of Multi-Airport Systems MASs have been a model for all metropolitan regions with the originating traffic above a specific traffic threshold. The level of originating traffic has not been constant and is likely to change over the coming years. As of 2010, the minimum level of originating traffic was about 15 million passengers per annum (MPA) for the entire metropolitan area increasing from 10 million originating passengers per year in 1995 (de Neufville et al., 2013). Metropolitan areas with the originating traffic less than the threshold level are still able to develop MASs with technical or political judgments that force these airports to exist. The evolution of MASs is influenced by the following three main factors: the readiness of existing airport infrastructures, the entry of low-cost carriers (LCCs) at underutilised airports, and regulatory and political factors. ICAO (2008) and FAA (2007a) identify two methods regarding the evolution of MASs: (i) optimising the availability of the existing airports; or (ii) building new airports. 2.3 Airport Choice in a Multi-Airport System Airports within a MAS can experience either competition or cooperation among them. Airports in MASs can compete in many ways to attract airlines and passengers if offering a better service compared to the others (Graham, 2014). There are various past studies regarding factors affecting the choice of airports in MASs based on the perspectives of passengers and airlines. 633 Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.12, 2017 2.3.1 The passengers’ perspective Brooke et al. (1994) state that in a MAS, passengers are able to, and do, make a selection of which airports to fly from due to the relative service offerings at competing airports. Passengers with different travel reasons, either business or leisure, have different factors in selecting airports (Başar and Bhat, 2004). A secondary airport is attractive to passengers if it delivers satisfactory access to the desired air services (de Neufville, 1995). 2.3.2 The airlines’ perspective FAA (2013) states that the business model of an airline affects the airport selection within a MAS. The determining factors are demographic and economic characteristics, the market split between leisure-business travellers and the area in which the airport is located. Moreover, the increase in low-cost airlines is causing a more competitive competition between airports in a MAS where the airports are located relatively close together. 2.4 Traffic Distribution in Multi-airport Systems A MAS generally consists of a primary airport and one or more secondary airports. The primary airport has a high concentration of traffic whilst the secondary airports have considerably less (de Neufville, 2000). The development of traffic at secondary airports will be stronger if it serves an exclusive market that it does not have to share with the primary airport. This specialisation can occur through government regulation, historical precedents, geography and airline strategy (de Neufville, 2000). In many cases, governments or airport operators have tried to force traffic to move from a congested airport to those secondary airports with underutilised capacity (de Neufville et al., 2013). However, they do not have control over forming the air traffic allocation between airports and the market served by each airport has various components with different needs and an unpredictable future. Thus the efforts are impractical except in limited conditions. The dynamics of the market will naturally shift the traffic to secondary airports if the primary airport has exceeded its designed capacity, or due to technical constraints at the primary airport. 2.5 Role of Regulatory and Political Factors Regulatory aspects have taken on an important role in the distribution of traffic among airports in MASs (Bonnefoy, 2008). This solution is often used in order to force the distribution of traffic. In 2013, the Indonesian Ministry of Transport produced a decree regarding the National Airport System which regulates the role, function, hierarchy and classification of Indonesian airports (MoT, 2013). The airport hierarchy in Indonesia is divided into hub and spoke airports. A hub airport is categorised into primary, secondary and tertiary hubs. A primary hub is an airport handling over 5.0 MPA; secondary hubs serve between 1.0 and 5.0 MPA; tertiary hubs handle between 0.5 and 1.0 MPA. The key aim of regulating airport systems is to deliver guidelines for the development of airports in a logical, sustainable and cost-effective manner (IATA, 2004; FAA,