EU FP 6 Project GOCE 037063 with DG Environment GEO­BENE Global Earth Observation ­Benefit Estimation: Now, Next and Emerging STREP PRIORITY [1.1.6.3] [Global Change and Ecosystems] DELIVERABLE D8 (T25) STATUS REPORT YEAR II Due date of deliverable: 31 July 2008 Start date of project: 1 July 2006 Duration: 36 Months Organization name of lead contractor for this deliverable: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Dissemination Level PU Public X PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services) RE Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services) CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services) Contents 1 Purpose of Deliverable D8 ...................................................................................4 2 Summary Description of the Project’s Objectives and Deliverables in Year II (D6, and D7)................................................................................................................4 3 Major Achievements During Year II (T14­T25)...................................................7 3.1 The project’s current relation to the state­of­the­art..........................................7 3.2 Objectives for year II .......................................................................................9 3.3 Objectives and outlook for year III.................................................................12 4 Work performed during year II ..........................................................................13 4.1 GEO­BENE Deliverable (D6) ........................................................................13 4.2 GEO­BENE Deliverable (D7) ........................................................................13 4.3 GEO­BENE Meetings and Highlight­Conference Attendance ........................15 4.4 GEO­BENE WEB PAGE – RE­LAUNCH.....................................................16 4.5 GEO­BENE Work Descriptions – Update by Partner .....................................18 4.5.1 IIASA ....................................................................................................18 4.5.2 BOKU....................................................................................................30 4.5.3 EAWAG ................................................................................................38 4.5.4 FELIS ....................................................................................................45 4.5.5 IVM .......................................................................................................46 4.5.6 KTL .......................................................................................................49 4.5.7 PIK ........................................................................................................55 4.5.8 SSCRI....................................................................................................57 4.5.9 UBR.......................................................................................................60 4.5.10 UHH ......................................................................................................61 4.5.11 CSIR ......................................................................................................67 5 Annex................................................................................................................70 5.1 Selection of recent publications 5.1.1 Time to break the silence around virtual­water imports 5.1.2 Food consumption patterns and their effect on water requirement in China. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci 5.1.3 Food consumption patterns and their effect on water requirement in China. UNESCO­IHE Institute for Water Education 5.1.4 Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on the Adoption of Electricity Generating Technologies 5.1.5 A Real Options Approach to Satellite Mission Planning 5.1.6 Valuing Weather Observation Systems for Forest Fire Management 5.1.7 OPTIMAL LOCATION OF ETHANOL LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOREFINERIES WITH POLYGENERATION IN SWEDEN 5.1.8 A Global Forest Growing Stock, Biomass and Carbon Map Based on FAO Statistics 5.1.9 Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation 2 5.1.10 GEO­BENE global database for bio­physical modeling v. 1.0 (Concepts, methodologies and data) 5.1.11 Benefits of increased data resolution for European conservation planning 5.1.12 Monte Carlo simulation of the impact of pandemic influenza mitigation scenarios in Slovakia 5.2 Further documents as referred to in the Annual Report II 5.2.1 GEO­BENE Poster 2008 5.2.2 GEO­BENE Info Folder 2008 5.2.3 IIASA­GEO­BENE Side Event at UNFCCC COP 13, Dec. 2007, Bali, Indonesia. Background Info and Agenda 5.2.4 IIASA­GEO­BENE Side Event at UNFCCC Climate Change Talks, Aug. 2008, Accra, Ghana. Background Info and Agenda 5.2.5 How to publish entries in the GEO­BENE GEOSS Benefit Assessment Database 3 1 Purpose of Deliverable D8 The purpose of the GEO­BENE Deliverable D8 (T25) “Status Report Year II” is to augment the description of work document and serve as a summary of the Reports D6 (T14) “GEO­BENE Database Report” and D7 (T20) “Interim Aggregate Benefit Assessment Report”. Further, the progress of and achievements under the GEO­BENE project since D5 (T13) “Status Report Year I” will be documented in this report by a section containing the updated and modified work descriptions by the consortium partners as well as a literature list of papers produced during that review period under the framework of the GEO­BENE project. Additionally, a selection of the most recent articles and papers is attached as annex to this report. 2 Summary Description of the Project’s Objectives and Deliverables in Year II (D6, and D7) The goal of GEO­BENE is to develop methodologies and analytical tools to assess the economic, social and environmental effects of improved quantitative and qualitative information delivered by the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) for the nine benefit areas of GEO. Global earth observation systems have considerably increased mankind’s capability to understand the physical world which surrounds us. New information technology allows us to shape the future of global society. GEOSS appears as a promising means to measure and to contribute to managing risks arising in the nine benefit areas, altogether avoiding it at times. Our understanding of human preferences through the study of behavioral psychology and economics has also helped us understand ways in which citizens perceive risk and manage it in their lives and provide normative guidance on increasing the effectiveness and efficiency of management. Yet the increasing complexity of modern life is going to require new – and different ­ ways to share burdens of managing risks ex ante nationally and internationally. GEO information will be crucial in accompanying this process by providing direct and indirect utility in terms of improved understanding of processes and better planning. Likewise the efficiency and effectiveness of ad hoc intervention measures adapting to global risks associated with the nine benefit areas can considerably be enhanced based on more knowledge and on­line supporting data. Scientists and practitioners around the globe are searching for options to perfect management systems in the nine benefit areas identified by GEO. Both in the EU as well as internationally there is a shortage of analytical tools to quantify reliably and in an integrated manner economic, social and environmental effects of GEOSS. Therefore, the impact of this project on both long­ and short­term planning of Earth system policies can be considered substantial. It is thus the prime objective of the proposed research to 4 develop an operational cluster of models to support the international policy processes associated with the nine benefit areas. The application and the development of the models should directly lead to robust policy conclusions pertinent to measures, in particular their implementation schedule, in the affected economic and social sectors vis­à­vis measures taken to improve earth system management based on an improved GEOSS. The overall objective is to develop analytical tools to assess in a geographically explicit fashion the economic, social and environmental benefits of improved information provided in the context of GEOSS in the short and long­term in a transparent and consistent way. This should support the formulation and implementation of policies and measures associated with the further development of GEOSS in a way that maximizes its benefit to society, including by assisting in the implementation of international commitments, such as the Millennium Development Goals. In order to achieve the operational goals of the objective the following means have to be considered. A comprehensive and consistent benefit assessment has to be built on a solid scientific concept embracing appropriate knowledge and independent observations from in situ studies/measurements and high quality auxiliary spatial data. System and data integrity is an important requirement, together with the efficient application of data such as Geographic Information System (GIS) data related to topography, soil, vegetation, land­use, land cover, forest inventory, region boundaries, other land and landscape information all the way to spatially explicit socio­economic data, which are currently in development. By making extensive use of spatial data we hope to be able to reap the benefits from the