A Consultancy Company wholly owned by Botswana College of Agriculture Private Bag 0027 Telephone: + 267 3650100 email:[email protected] Gaborone, Botswana Telefax: +267 3928753 website: www.bca.bw CONSULTANCY FOR THE POVERTY AND SOCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF THE INTEGRATED SUPPORT PROGRAMME FOR ARABLE AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT (ISPAAD) FOR THE UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME REPUBLIC OF BOTSWANA FINAL REPORT 30 NOVEMBER 2012 i Table of Contents Table of Contents .............................................................................................................................. i List of Tables ..................................................................................................................................iii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .............................................................................................................. vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................ vii CHAPTER 1 BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOUT THE CONSULTANCY ........................ 1 1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Project Objectives.................................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Background to Poverty and Social Impact Analysis ............................................................. 2 1.4 Terms of Reference (ToRs) ................................................................................................... 2 1.5 Scope of Work ....................................................................................................................... 3 CHAPTER 2 BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOUT BOTSWANA ........................................ 5 2.1 Economy ................................................................................................................................ 5 2.3 Demography .......................................................................................................................... 7 2.4 Overview of the Agriculture Sector ...................................................................................... 7 2.5 Crop Production and its Challenges ...................................................................................... 8 2.6 Land Tenure and Implications in Arable Agriculture ......................................................... 10 2.7 Government Policies towards Arable Agriculture .............................................................. 10 2.7.1 The Pupil Farmer – Master Farmer Scheme .................................................................... 11 2.7.2 Arable Lands Development Program .............................................................................. 11 2.7.3 Accelerated Rain-fed Arable Programme ........................................................................ 11 2.7.4 The Integrated Support Programme for Arable Agriculture Development ..................... 12 CHAPTER 3 FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES ....................................... 17 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 17 3.2 Food Security in the Context of Sub-Saharan Africa .......................................................... 17 3.3 Input Subsidies and Food Security: Experience from Malawi ............................................ 19 CHAPTER 4 PROJECT METHODOLOGY .................................................................................... 21 4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 21 4.2 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 21 4.3 Five - Criteria Evaluation Approach ................................................................................... 21 4.4 Sampling Procedure ............................................................................................................ 21 4.5 Primary Data Collection Methods ....................................................................................... 25 4.5.1 Individual Interviews ....................................................................................................... 26 4.5.2 Focus Group Discussions ................................................................................................ 26 4.5.3 Key Informant Interviews ................................................................................................ 26 4.5.4 Personal Observations ..................................................................................................... 26 4.5.5 Primary Data Requirements ............................................................................................. 26 4.5.6 Primary Data Analysis ..................................................................................................... 27 4.6 Secondary Data Collection Methods ................................................................................... 27 4.7 Data Analyses ...................................................................................................................... 27 4.7.1 Stakeholder and Benefit Distribution Analysis ............................................................... 27 4.7.2 Delineation of Transmission Channels ............................................................................ 28 4.7.3 Institutional Analysis ....................................................................................................... 28 4.7.4 Poverty Impact Analysis .................................................................................................. 28 4.7.5 Cost-Benefit Analysis ...................................................................................................... 28 4.7.6 SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................... 29 CHAPTER 5 FINDINGS ................................................................................................................... 30 i 5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 30 5.2 Design Features of the ISPAAD ......................................................................................... 30 5.3 The Effectiveness of ISPAAD Programme ......................................................................... 34 5.3.1 Objective 1: To Increase Grain Production ..................................................................... 35 5.3.2 Objective 2: To Promote Food Security at Household and National Level .................... 43 5.3.4 Objective 4: To Facilitate Access to Farm Inputs and Credit .......................................... 45 5.3.5 Objective 5: To Improve Extension Outreach ................................................................. 46 5.4 Eligibility Criteria of ISPAAD and howthey Impact on Beneficiaries ............................... 47 5.5 Impact of Eligibility Criteria on Poor People, Gender, Vulnerable groups and Youth ........... 48 5.6 Transmission Channels of ISPAAD .................................................................................... 52 5.7 Delivery Mechanisms of ISPAAD ...................................................................................... 56 5.9 Distributional Impacts of ISPAAD ..................................................................................... 65 5.9.1 Social Impacts of ISPAAD .............................................................................................. 65 5.9.2 Attitude toward ISPAAD Programme ............................................................................. 66 5.9.3 Potential Impact of ISPAAD on the Environment .......................................................... 67 5.9.4 Potential Consequences of Climate Change on Arable Sub-sector ................................. 69 5.9.5 Impact of ISPAAD on Poverty ....................................................................................... 70 5.9.6 Economic Impacts of ISPAAD ........................................................................................ 73 5.9.7 Costs and Returns of the ISPAAD Programme ............................................................... 74 5.10 Environment in which ISPAAD Operates ....................................................................... 80 5.10.1 Botswana / Zimbabwe Trade Agreement ........................................................................ 80 5.10.2 The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) ....................................................... 80 5.10.3 The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) .............................................................. 81 5.10.4 The Southern African Development Community (SADC) Trade Protocol ..................... 81 5.10.5 World Trade Organization (WTO) .................................................................................. 81 5.10.6 SACU-MERCOSUR Preferential Trade Agreement....................................................... 82 5.10.7 SACU-USA Trade, Investment and Development Cooperation Agreement .................. 82 CHAPTER