ROSE BRIEFING 25 1 January 2020 1.ELECTION ANALYSIS ASHCROFT POLLS – 30,000 INTERVIEWS IMMEDIATELY AFTER POLLING ON 12 DECEMBER Most important issue Conservative voters: Get Brexit Done 72 per cent; NHS 41 per cent Labour: 74 per cent NHS; 28 per cent Stop Brexit SNP: 57 per cent NHS; 41 per cent Stop Brexit 2017 Leave and Remain voters Labour secured 84 per cent of 2017 Labour Remain voters but only 64 per cent of 2017 Labour Leave voters Age Labour secured a majority of 18-34 voters and the biggest share (45 per cent) of 35-44 voters. YOUGOV – 28,000 VOTERS AFTER ELECTION 2. LEGISLATION European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act This was passed in slightly amended form on 20 December 2019. It was substantially the same as the Bill debated in October 2019 (outlined in Briefing Note 24) but with three changes. It removed additional procedural protections for workers rights; government liability for children seeking asylum with relatives in Britain; and some procedural safeguards for Commons scrutiny. It maintains all those elements committing to a ‘level playing field’ in economic relations with the EU and other countries. Jeremy Corbyn criticised: ‘it will not protect our manufacturing industry or vital trading interests’ as well as the ending of liability for refugee children and removing protections for workers rights. Legislative programme outlined in the Queen’s Speech 19 December In addition to the European Union Withdrawal Bill (now Act) this included Agriculture Bill promising a new system of subsidy based on land use and environment needs Fisheries Bill promising fair access to territorial waters Trade Bill maximising continuity for business and continuing access to £1.3T public procurement in 43 countries through ratification of WTO procurement regulations Financial Services Bill ● Ensure that the UK maintains its world-leading regulatory standards and remains open to international markets after we leave the EU. The main benefits of the legislation would be: ● Supporting the UK’s position as an international financial services centre. ● Enhancing the competitiveness of the UK’s financial services sector, while maintaining high standards to protect UK consumers so that they can use financial services products with confidence. ● The Government will set out further measures to ensure the UK maintains its worldleading regulatory standards and remains open to international markets after we leave the EU in due course. Other legislation includes An Employment Bill that will prioritise flexible working and promises greater employment security NHS Funding Bill that promises an increase of £33.9B by 2023-24 (in fact less than the average annual inflation in NHS costs) Legislation to maintain minimum levels of service during transport strikes Renters Bill that promises greater tenant security – as well as easier legal processes for the recovery of property by landlords Immigration and Social Security Bill for an Australian style points based immigration system that will end free movement, equalise treatment of EU and non-EU immigrants – but give legal status to 3.4 current EU citizens who go through registration process. 3. EU RESPONSE Sabine Weyand, EU Commissioner Trade, commented on 20 December that in the coming negotiations top priority would be given to ‘state aid and competition rules’ as well as ‘commitment to labour rights, environment and tax’. 4. CITY OF LONDON PRIORITIES Financial Times Fund Management Supplement 16 December Its front page details differing priorities between major banks and asset managers operating out of London (all externally owned) and locally-owned investment managers and hedge funds. JP Morgan Asset Management and Hermes Investment Management want strong passporting arrangement with the EU and attack the idea of a ‘Singapore on the Thames’. Somerset Capital Management (co- founded by Rees-Mogg and with offices in London and Singapore) called for regulations that appealed to investors from Asia and the US and Chris Cummings of the Investment Association (representing UK Investment Managers) said they wanted rules that were ‘proportionate, cost effective and fit for purpose’ and not a ‘bonfire of regulations’. 5. EU ECONOMY – SLOWING GROWTH The latest Eurostat figures relate to the third quarter of 2019 compared to the third quarter of 2018. This shows industrial production as down 0.4 percent – but concealing considerable variations. France was up 0.5 per cent but Denmark down 2.6, Belgium 1.8, Germany and Sweden both down 1.5 per cent, Spain down 0.4 and Italy 0.3. Construction across the EU was down 1.0 percent. Overall GDP growth was 0.3 per cent on the year. .