ClimateWorks Australia was co-founded by Monash University and The Myer Foundation and works within the Monash Sustainable Development Institute Present & Future Electric transport and its role in reducing emissions Anna Skarbek, CEO ClimateWorks 26 August 2019 Founded in 2009 through a partnership with The Myer Foundation and Monash University and working within the Monash Sustainable Development Institute. Electric vehicle ready local government fleets Project aim was to enable greater uptake of electric vehicles in local government fleets CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 3 Present: “Our calculations show that within some categories of vehicles, electric vehicle options (battery electric and plug-in hybrid) have a similar or lower total cost of ownership than current internal combustion engine fleet vehicles.” CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 4 Electric vehicle finances – total cost of ownership • Total cost of ownership (TCO) comparison provides a holistic cost comparison of petrol or diesel vehicles with electric vehicles • TCO for a vehicle can be calculated as follows: + + + � − + = 표 � CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 5 TCO calculation for electric vehicles The calculation assumes that: • Vehicles stay in fleet for 6 years • Annual range is 20,000km • Energy costs $0.15/kWh The price for charging infrastructure and insurance has not been included in this calculation. CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 6 Summary Hatch Sedan SUV/ Wagon Ute Van Minibus Council data $0.29 - $0.43 $0.29 - $0.62 $0.46 - $0.61 $0.35 - $0.68 $0.33 - $0.65 $0.50 - $1.12 (TCO $/km) Renault $0.38 $0.31 (ZOE) (Kangoo Z.E) Hyundai $0.42 (Ioniq PHEV) $0.34 (Kona) $0.31 (Ioniq BEV) SEA $0.23 (E4V) $0.23 (E4B) Mitsubishi $0.45 (Outlander PHEV) Tesla $0.94 (Tesla $0.86 (Tesla Model Model S 5 Seat S Dual Motor) Dual Motor) CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 7 Emissions reductions Electric vehicle: zero emissions over its lifetime Internal combustion engine vehicles: Hatchback/Sedan Ute/van/minibus Emissions (tCO2) 21 26 Assumes electric vehicle is charged from on-site renewables or Green Power, internal combustion engine vehicle travels 120,000 km over lifetime, with fuel efficiency of 8L/km for a hatchback or 10L/km for a ute, van or minibus CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 8 Opportunities for Councils Save on fleet Emissions Sustainability costs reductions leadership CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 9 INNOVATION SCENARIOS FOR NET ZERO EMISSIONS Results and Messages - Transport Founded in 2009 through a partnership with The Myer Foundation and Monash University and working within the Monash Sustainable Development Institute. Future We’re analysing: the momentum and opportunity to achieve net zero emissions, the paths forward under a range of trajectories, and the potential for a 1.5 degree consistent pathway. We’re doing this by: • Detailing the solutions (technologies, social changes and business models ) that could help achieve net zero emissions, • Highlighting the recent momentum, both on the acceleration in deployment of known solutions and development of emerging ones. • Identifying the actions that are needed to implement these solutions and the drivers that can enable them. • Describing future scenarios, that illustrate different ways in which current challenge(s) could be overcome [demonstrating the potential impact of different drivers and solutions]. • Explaining the necessary scale of key solutions [how much, by when], CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 11 Summary: All sectors of the economy, to a lesser or greater degree, have solutions, momentum and challenges Sector 2015 emissions share excluding Net zero emissions solutions Challenges (including) electricity Deployment & integration Electricity 100% renewables by ~2035 34% Deployment Buildings Deep energy efficiency & electrification 3% (22%) Electric & Fuel-cell vehicles for road & short-haul non-road Deployment & integration of EVs Transport Biofuels, Synfuels, Ammonia or hydrogen for long-haul Technology development for long haul 18% (18%) non-road Energy efficiency, electrification, bioenergy, CCS Deployment Industry Circular economy, material substitution Technology development for heavy industry 33% (47%) Agriculture Improved practices, Carbon forestry Deployment, scale-up 14% (14%) Anti-methane vaccines Technology development for vaccine delivery CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 12 SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis; ETC, Mission Possible (2018) Transport Electrification and low carbon fuels are the key solutions to decarbonisation in transport, but other solutions could have additional impact Subsector Key solutions Supporting solutions (% current sector emissions) Road, light Electric vehicles (both battery and fuel-cell) Autonomous vehicles, mode shift, design (45%) improvements Road, heavy Alternative low carbon fuels (biofuels and/or EVs (short-haul), eCommerce, shift to rail, route (38%) hydrogen) optimisation Shipping Alternative fuels (hydrogen, ammonia, hybrid Route optimisation, design improvements, (2%) solutions) Electrification (short-haul) Aviation Biofuels (9%) Rail, freight Electrification Operational improvements (4%) Alternative fuels (hydrogen, biofuels) CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 13 Transport – illustrative summary Recent momentum means that electrification is likely to address a larger share of transport than previously thought Solution Momentum Outlook With battery costs decreasing The cost of EVs has reduced faster than expected, larger Electric vehicles dramatically, driven by the fall in vehicles can be fully electrified battery costs and greater uptake is expected Autonomous vehicles have Now we modelled that up to 20% Autonomous vehicles emerged from a nascent of vehicles could be autonomous technology to trials by 2050 Hybrid-electric and hydrogen These sectors are considered Alternative fuels for trains, ships and planes being harder to abate, but options are non-road demonstrated overseas emerging CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 14 We have found that we can achieve a trajectory aligned with 1.5 degrees of warming, and that there are several trajectories compatible with 2 degrees of warming Residual emissions sources and sequestration by scenario, 2050 Net emissions by scenario, 2020-2050 600 600 Buildings Industry Transport Agriculture Electricity Forestry 400 400 Base case 200 200 e e 2 2 Balanced Innovation MtCO 0 MtCO 0 2020 2030 2040 2050 Delay -200 -200 Stretch -400 -400 2020 Base case Balanced Delayed Innovation Stretch 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 15 In transport, the key challenges depending on the level of technological readiness and deployment in road and non-road vehicles Sector 2015 emissions share excluding Net zero emissions solutions Challenges (including) electricity Deployment & integration Electricity 100% renewables by ~2035 34% Deployment Buildings Deep energy efficiency & electrification 3% (22%) Electric & Fuel-cell vehicles for road & short-haul non-road Deployment & integration of EVs Transport Biofuels, Synfuels, Ammonia or hydrogen for long-haul Technology development for long haul 18% (18%) non-road Energy efficiency, electrification, bioenergy, CCS Deployment Industry Circular economy, material substitution Technology development for heavy industry 33% (47%) Agriculture Improved practices, Carbon forestry Deployment, scale-up 14% (14%) Anti-methane vaccines Technology development for vaccine delivery CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 16 SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis; ETC, Mission Possible (2018) Transport (road passenger) Electrification is the dominant trend in the scenarios – if EVs reach cost-parity early, this will enable faster emissions reductions Annual road passenger transport emissions by scenario Proportion of total passenger vehicle kilometres (2015-2050) travelled – electric vehicles (including autonomous) 50 100 40 75 e 30 2 % 50 MtCO 20 25 10 0 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Base case Innovation Balanced Stretch CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 17 Transport (road freight) Despite a similar emissions outcome, the drivers in each scenario lead to different energy use and fuel mix profiles in 2050 Annual road freight transport emissions by Road freight energy consumption by scenario scenario (2015-2050) 798 50 800 40 600 582 -16% 504 e 30 2 421 PJ 400 MtCO 20 200 10 0 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 Base case Balanced Innovation 2050 2050 2050 Base case Innovation Balanced Electricity Biofuels Gas Oil Hydrogen CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 18 Transport (non road) Again in non-road, similar emissions outcomes by 2050 are achieved with different energy intensity across the scenarios Annual non-road transport emissions by Road freight energy consumption by scenario scenario (2015-2050) 30 500 408 400 20 310 e 300 2 268 PJ 226 MtCO 200 10 100 0 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 Base case Balanced Stretch 2050 2050 2050 Base case Balanced Stretch Electricity Biofuels Gas Oil Hydrogen CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 19 Example benchmarks for Transport sector: In 2030, a 1.5 - 2 degree pathway for the transport sector would see: Metric Value (2030) Equivalence Total transport sector emissions 89-95 MtCO2e This is equivalent to an 10-18% increase on 2005 levels Electric vehicle sales as a proportion 46-49% Compared to 1% currently of new vehicle sales Total electric cars (light vehicles) on 2.9-5.3 million vehicles Compared to 0.04 million vehicles the road currently Total alternative fuel (EV + hydrogen 0.7-1.4 million vehicles Compared to 0.01 million vehicles + biofuel) freight vehicles on the currently road CLIMATEWORKSAUSTRALIA.ORG | 20 Contact Us ClimateWorks Australia Anna Skarbek Level 16, 41 Exhibition Street CEO Melbourne Victoria 3000 [email protected] +61 3 99020741 [email protected] www.climateworksaustralia.org Follow us: @ClimateWorksAus ClimateWorks Australia ClimateWorks Australia was co-founded by Monash University and The Myer Foundation and works within the Monash Sustainable Development Institute.